Victoria: Unstable period and cold outbreak - 7th - 12th Jan

[I_Love_Storms]

Ec showing a decent rain/storm event around a week from now with approx 35mm forecast for Melbourne over a 48 hour period. Gfs still not showing much at this stage however definitely something to keep an eye on. Wouldn't be surprising with gfs showing a clear trough feature working it's way through WA over the next week. Will post updates into the new year. Hope everyone enjoys the wonderful weather tonight for nye and has a few drinks to cool down

[Anthony Violi]

Will be the start of a very active period for a few weeks, i like the slackness in the charts in week 2, will allow moisture and heat to spill south and deluge us again.

[aussiestormfreak]

Heading away on holidays early this week with my family and my girlfriend... would be fantastic if severe weather can erupt across Northeast Victoria and Southeast NSW, especially next weekend!!

[jmw2207]

any idea's on what it will be like on Sat 7th. My wife is having her 30th from 4pm onwards outside....please hold off!

[crikey]

Just catching a glimpse of that system coming through at around this time slot on WATL wind forecast ( EC)
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Holy Molly.
There is this MASSIVE LOW. and l mean massive . In diameter and wind strength. Looks like a bl##dy mid latitude cyclone? Actually a bit lower than mid latitudes a bit sub sub polar?
Actually looks about the diameter of YASi maybe larger.
Can't wait to see what its central pressure will be?
It is centred well N/west of tassie on the sunday morning am. of the 8th jan .But its tentacles fill the entire southern sea !!.and beyond The BIGHT!
SOOO ! glad it is that far away . However Vic looks to cop[ its outermost periphery,
Western 'tassie' looks like it will cop the brunt. Looks like it just barrels through there!
60-70km/hr winds( not gusts)
Anyway , a long way out but fascinated already..
No doubt l here from you 'guys' re other other models scenario about this.

[Anthony Violi]

And whilst we wait for the upcoming system, i thought i would reminisce one of the most historic systems we have ever seen.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 1-02-05-00" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Blackie]

And whilst we wait for the upcoming system, i thought i would reminisce one of the most historic systems we have ever seen.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 1-02-05-00" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Certainly won't forget about that one in a hurry AV. In Elwood we copped the most intense rain that night scoring 120 mm + over 3 hours. Rain rates I've not experienced.

[stevco123]

Oh yeah.I remember that system. 150 mm in under an hour.who knew the best flash flood video I have taken so far would be at home.

[crikey]

Oh My!!
Just had a look at ACCESS global synoptic. It is forecasting a mid- latitude cyclone to be centred in bass strait next Sunday with a central pressure of 987hpascls
some very strong wrapping
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... u&model=CG" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
986 h pascals near 'tassie' on the Monday!
70km/hr winds(not gusts) pounding the southern coastline in SA , Adelaide , s/west coastline , Melbourne, 'gippy' coast by its western flank winds as it passes.
strong n/easterlies battering the southern coast of NSW as they wrap into the low

Hoping so much that ACCESS is wrong and EC is the less damaging option.

Suppose the power will be cut to some areas as now is the trend in summer!

TASSIE will be pummellled

Just look at the synoptic for next Sunday( above). Mainly little blobs of high areas scattered near the monsoon trough and yet down south at the mid latitudes there is a cyclone.
Quite extraordinary..

[Anthony Violi]

Models completely disagree on this one...all of them have the cold air but some scoot it off quickly, others give us a bit of a drink.

25-50mm statewide at this early stage, i think the heat will trigger a huge inland rainband that will get dragged south.

[Anthony Violi]

Models starting to look better as far as the broader and longer outlook is. Im still thinking a big rain event for a fair swathe of southern and central OZ, though i think it could be the following system after this weekend which comes in with the big totals.

[stevco123]

Have a look at the bureau forecast for next wednesday before they change it. I wish we had that maximum.

[Petethemoskeet]

Yep i would'nt mind having a minus 20,better than +40.

[daviescr]

Haha yes, just saw that... recorded here for posterity

[I_Love_Storms]

Saturday and Sunday (original dates) don't look like too much. EC going for 30mm Wednesday next week. Looks kinda troughy and humid next week. Be interesting to keep an eye on.

[nafets]

From Sunday through next week i'm off to Phillip Island...so what i'm taking from this is horrible beach weather?!?

[I_Love_Storms]

From Sunday through next week i'm off to Phillip Island...so what i'm taking from this is horrible beach weather?!?

Still a bit up in the air but you might get lucky with hopefully some fine weather followed by some thundery stuff later in the afternoons. Fingers crossed!

[Anthony Violi]

We have used up all our tickets for heat this month. Though our so called climte experts think we will die from them. Yes it will get hot again this summer but nothing near previous years heat, not even close.

Should see a very active and warm 3 or so weeks. Pattern starting to become mobilised, and the monsoon is showing signs that its awaking from its slumber. Still not sure why the models dont like this weekend, 25mm statewide a certainty IMO.

A shortwave with intense cold air will be the next system, will be hard to get big totals from that unless it comes through the west of here and interacts with mosit warm air.

Then after next week the fun starts.

[Dane]

Mondays 40.0c in the City made it the 10th year in a row that we have reached 40c or more in the City and this is an all time record. Previous record was 8 consecutive years from 1939 to 1946 inc.
As for this weekend not expecting much maybe 5 to 10mm's for my area I think.

[johnno]

LOL @ 25c by BOM for next Thursday for Melbourne.. Thats the biggest joke I have seen by the BOM since there -20c which we saw Yesterday.. I wonder where they pulled that one from