Victoria: First Heatwave of the Summer - 31/12/11 to 3/1/12

[Anthony Violi]

Sea fog has developed in the cbd, and the towers have taken out the satellites..

Should get to 40 pretty comfortably, drier air is still out west so not sure if the eastern side of melb will get to 40 as the Dps are still pretty high.

[norfolk]

37-38 out here, so yeah I am thinking we will get to 40. And the eastern subs only on 33-34!

[johnno]

Shortwave change should come through This evening but it will only be weak will just knock off the temperture abit and introduce more humidity again so uncomfortable night either way. Tomorrow is tricky EC probably has a mixure of cloud and thinks the wind be more variable with a seabreeze influence as we will be inbetween 2 short waves where GFS probably thinks the seabreeze will be weaker.. Another stronger change will push through Tomorrow Night or early morning Wednesday and quite cool air behind that one with gusty SSW winds on Wednesday.. Can't see it more than 20 or 21c on Wednesday at this stage which will be a shock to the system for some.

[droughtbreaker]

31.4C here atm which is only about a degree or two warmer than the same time yesterday. Decent NW wind days are almost always substantially milder here than on days with lighter wind or wind from the NE. The western suburbs get baked, I think there is some link between why my area stays relatively mild and the western suburbs get blasted, I'm pretty sure it has something to do with the central ranges and is related in some way to the same mechanisms that cause the rain shadow effect in those areas, i.e. the air on the leeward side of the ranges is hotter and drier.

[norfolk]

31.4C here atm which is only about a degree or two warmer than the same time yesterday. Decent NW wind days are almost always substantially milder here than on days with lighter wind or wind from the NE. The western suburbs get baked, I think there is some link between why my area stays relatively mild and the western suburbs get blasted, I'm pretty sure it has something to do with the central ranges and is related in some way to the same mechanisms that cause the rain shadow effect in those areas, i.e. the air on the leeward side of the ranges is hotter and drier.

yes, these NW days are when we get blasted with heat, dries all the humidity out of the air. There is no way it WON'T get to 40c out here at least! Even in places like Aireys its up to 37c/38c atm so no breeze to stop heat at this stage. But not saying there wont be later.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, and when you see Scoresby at 35C and Coldstream 34C at similar low elevations it appears obvious that the Kilmore Gap funnels the air into these places and therefore the air is not forced to rise and descend on its way to the eastern suburbs. On the western side however the air is forced over high ranges as it passes over the Daylesford to Macedon Ranges area and then forced to descend over the steep southern slopes and then is carried over about 50km of flat and open land to Geelong where it has reached 39C so far. This phenomena is related to the rain shadow effect although for the most part there is no precipitation on days like today for obvious reasons.

I am quite fascinated by this localised effect as it is one of the most important factors (along with the locations of Port Philip and the Dandenongs relative to Melbourne suburbs) as to why there is such a contrast between western Melbourne climate and eastern Melbourne.

[Anthony Violi]

Looks like the dewpoints will stay above 0 which is a major win, the air that is being funneled in to the western district is coming in from Moomba area and its 40/10 there, even Woomera is 38/4. So it looks like it wont get scorching hot, might take a degree or 2 off, and stop it from going into the 40s.

[dagget]

Interesting stuff, on the western side of the ranges here and looking at 35 at the moment.

[johnno]

I actually think the high cloud is taking the edge off the temp.. You can tell with the naked eye the sun is running at about 80% strength which can make all the difference on "fine line days like this" whether it will make 40c or not.. Avalon and Laverton have to get there first before the CBD and there usually running on 2c more than the CBD on days like Today. I am going to stick my neck out and say we may just fall short Today in the CBD which is generally what I have been saying all along for Today... By 4 or 5pm we will know

[Didjman]

36.6/9.2 here atm. will get hotter in the northerly here.
Peter

[Anthony Violi]

Dewpoints still holding above 8 or so, that could also be hindering a little, and with the high cloud could make all the difference. Still 35/12 here, and Laverton is 38/11 which is also very humid for 38 degrees.

[Timster]

Hi all... Just hit 39.9 out here at Scarsdale.... strong northerly pushing through as well.

[mick]

40 BINGO!

edit cool change, 39.3

[nafets]

Just hit 38 here, with a dew point of 10.

[Twiggy]

42 Here,.... :S I don't think tomorrow will be much different.

[Anthony Violi]

Substantial convection should begin to develop soon..

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Port Fairy 42.1,

WS here hovering 37.4,

Having trouble logging on via phone..? any tipps..

[nafets]

Here we've been under high cloud for most of the day, wont the high cloud inhabit the availability for convection AV?

[Anthony Violi]

Not at all Stefan, temp will do the trick

[oz1235]

We have just cracked the 40 degs here at 3:04pm today

Humidity is 15%