Victoria: Trough - showers/rain/storms - 6th-10th November

[Supercellimpact]

It's looking likely we will see a burst of heat this weekend with temps Sunday getting into the high 30's and sat is nudging 30. Then on Sunday a trough will move through and produce possible storms and showers. Thoughts ?

[HarleyB]

Not unusual to have a bit of heat in early Nov but 35 here for Sunday is very uncommon. The only recent year with this kind of heat was 2009, where we had a 41 degree day later in the month.

Not going to say much about the rainfall until later in the week when things start to piece together. Does look interesting at this stage though.

[Geoff]

Well I've just had a look at EC, GFS and AccessG, and they all seem to indicate a cut off low moving in from the Bight interacting with tropical infeeds from both n/w WA and the NT from the 8th to the 10th Nov. Seems to me this could result in a big rain event for that period, should we perhaps extend this thread or start a new one nearer the time if it looks likely to eventuate? Looks like the sort of setup to get Anthony posting more regularly!

[Jake Smethurst]

We would keep this thread and just edit the title Geoff. I will take a look at things closely later tonight.

[Meso]

Looks to be a chance of storms Sunday, but might be too dry. Clearly something brewing around Tuesday tho, but still to far off to judge it's epicness.

[stratospear]

Tuesday & Wednesday next week look like serving up the main course, but forecast models are all over the place. For example, EC says 60mm for here, GFS drops it back to 10mm.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looking good for rain and storms starting Sunday evening and progressing through the start of next week.

Looks very humid and unstable.

[Meso]

And just like that GFS loses all interest for Tuesday and next week lol. How many times have I seen that happen now...still keeping up some level of consistency re Sunday tho, so I'm kinda hopeful.

[Geoff]

GFS looks very interested to me Meso...

GFS Tuesday.png (33.43 KiB) Viewed 10002 times

[Meso]

Thats the 12z run. Check the 18z on BSCH...doesn't look very unstable.

[I_Love_Storms]

It'll be right. At least one of those days should be a ripper. There is definitely a warm, humid airmass on it's way down...when you see instability building from NE it is a good sign

[aussiestormfreak]

Yeah, I've got a feeling that there'll be some good storms heading our way sometime between the weekend and at least this time next week... so I'll be watching the unfolding situation with cautious optimistism

[HarleyB]

Not expecting much in terms of rainfall here. Only around 10mm for here I suspect. Though I am being very wary of predicting bigger totals for here after the last few (non) events!

[crikey]

Quite an astonishing synoptic pattern
A trough draped over OZ and a long cold front on the western seaboard of WA atm.
and a complex arrangement of low pressure area in the midlatitudes approaching as well
The trough looks long enough to move across all of OZ at first look.
It just looks like no one in OZ would miss out on a tad of precipitation.? Some more great weather watching coming up by the looks.

[Lily]

Looks like the sort of setup to get Anthony posting more regularly!

Splutters then LMAO!!!

David Brown has said the past two nights that storms will head into central areas (Melbourne, at least) come early to mid Sunday afternoon.

[Supercellimpact]

Gfs is on board with 100mm for my area on the 18z run.

[johnno]

LOL @ GFS Can't see that even being remotely close. Watch it drop off if not the next run next few runs.

[I_Love_Storms]

LOL @ GFS Can't see that even being remotely close. Watch it drop off if not the next run next few runs.

Never know what a few slow moving storms from the NE will do...but yeah looks a little on the extreme side haha BTW they have settled down and pushed it further NE for time being

[johnno]

Storms won't be coming in from the NE ILS they come in from the NW or West

[I_Love_Storms]

Storms won't be coming in from the NE ILS they come in from the NW or West

Not necessarily...I think this system is still too far off to tell, however if we get a NE flow (similar to early Dec last year) then storms may move NE to SW. If this scenario eventuated we will have storms coming off the eastern ranges and swamping the eastern suburbs with very heavy rain. Didn't look at wind progs on the 18z run of GFS but I'm guessing it featured more of a NE influence.



With systems this far off I'm never entirely sure and BOM aren't progging anything like that at the moment, but if we become influenced by a strong event then I think the NE scenario is a possibility.