Southwest WA continues to be an area that might be worth watching for late autumn and winter in terms of rainfall/temperatures. For the past few months, all models have been unanimous on wetter than normal (and warmer than normal) conditions for the waters off southwest WA and quite a few spread that signal over southwest WA itself. However, some only barely paint the extreme far southwestern coastal strip with the wet signal while others spread it over most of southwest WA. And as always, models generally have lower accuracy over far southern parts of the continent including this area so pays to keep an open mind.
The cause of all this is the extremely warm SST's that have been hanging around off western and southwestern WA for months now and progged by most models to persist for a little while longer. So it could be interesting to watch as the prevailing airstream turns from the offshore E/NE'lies during summer around to more onshore westerly directions in winter and starts flowing over these very warm waters. This is only provided the Southern Annular Mode cooperates and fronts don't stay too far south and the warm SST's persist as progged though. If these factors manage to line up, I think enhanced cold season thunderstorm activity with cold season tornadoes and heavy frontal rainfall from injections of unusually warm moist subtropical type air isn't out of the question. Would be a welcome break for them at least.
The WMO's multi-model ensemble forecast (using EC, UK, CFS, Canada, POAMA, MeteoFrance and JMA) showing the ensemble average of precip anomalies (mm/day) for May-Jun-Jul:
The WMO's multi-model ensemble forecast showing the probability (the proportion of the 10 leading models) of wetter/drier than normal conditions for Apr-May-Jun (the red colours indicate a high proportion of models suggesting wetter than normal conditions):
EC rainfall anomaly probabilities for May-Jun-Jul:
POAMA's max temp anomaly probabilities (POAMA has a tendency to be "overconfident" but that's not necessarily a bad thing in some situations):