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Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs)

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Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs)

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Well, considering we will start to feel the affects of the approaching trough tomorrow across most parts of Victoria, I thought I better start up an appropriate thread for the up-coming week. It is going to be massive in-terms of rainfall towards Tuesday night and Wednesday/Thursday. But lets not forget thunderstorm action across most parts tomorrow, particularly west, with flash flooding and large hail likely. I will get my storm charts out at around 11.30 AM again.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by HarleyB »

Just a quick question Jake, will the storms be slow-movers again tomorrow? ie. Could they dump 40-50mm in isolated locations?
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Hi mate.

Looking at the latest model data, it looks like they will be relatively slow moving again, however I think faster than today's activity. If you look at how slow moving Vic's storms were today compared to over in eastern South Australia which were quite a bit faster, that also says something to me of what the speed of movement will be occurring tomorrow. But generally, they could still drop up to 30mm of rainfall over local areas. Looking at steering though, its a little variable still, but by nature thunderstorm movement tomorrow will be as follows:

Western districts: Towards the south to southeast.
Central and Eastern districts: Towards the southwest.

I can't work out speeds likely of storms yet. Am still learning a lot of stuff, but mate I think a little faster than today's. Will update you in the morning again with the latest data.

Hope that helps.

I hope they are quicker than today's though on a personal note ... might be able to get down here then!! :P
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by HarleyB »

Thanks mate, yeah that helps, we really dont need any quick dumps of rain tomorrow or Tuesday round here
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Petros »

A day of bleak cool low easterly cloud and stiff easterly breeze, but less drizzle than yesterday. Sun didnt break through at all yest, and possibly wont today by current conditions.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by AmaroK »

Lovely morning here in Bayswater. Only scattered cloud to my north, and virtually no wind at all. Currently 24.8 dp 16.9. Very keen to see what develops (and where) over the coming hours.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Supercellimpact »

The sky is covered with high cloud , cannot see storms development here.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Karl Lijnders »

SCI it will erupt underneath. The cloud is thin. We saw on Friday last week storms erupt under a mid level deck. This is nothing and your closer to the trigger.

Scattered cu over the north looks promising. Winds turning ENE here with strong ESE winds over the south. Convergence developing.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Supercellimpact »

Storms firing around ouyen, north of swan Hill.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Twister »

Yeah looking good mostly cloudy here atm but

28/19c its so so moist here any storms will bring huge falls

Hoping to watch it all explode in a few hours in the clear air to my NW
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Anthony Violi »

Just noticed the convection....instead of lots of small Cu, they are big flat based Cu.

I think wherever storms develop today there will be enormous flooding. The atmosphere is primed, its 28 already, and there are towers in every direction, with great steering out of the North. Slow movers too so huge dumpers will form.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Nick Sykes »

I have to agree, looks great today, highly unstable, nice convergence through the suburbs, steering from the NNE, pretty much perfect for big storms in Melbourne. I have the day off so will be on the look out.

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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Anthony Violi »

Likewise Nick, enjoying an RDO and just waiting for this to get cracking.

Stormchart for today.

IDV65758
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 11:50 am Monday, 6 December 2010,
Valid until midnight on Monday, 6 December 2010.
Scattered thunderstorms through most of Victora, with high precipitation falling from any activity that develops, but particularly through the severe thunderstorm likely area marked. Severe thunderstorms that develop in this area also have the potential to have large hail, and to a lesser extent damaging wind gusts.


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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Petros »

Looks fanstastic for storms, and even in this area - which our BOM gave no hope any further S than Omeo/Licola this morning. But we currently have 2 storms in action N of Dargo and N of Ensay. These are both inching SSW'wards.

The easterly wind has stopped, the 100% cloud cover seems lighter and higher over past 2 hours. 24C with 18C dewpoint.

Got all the lawns done, and will be heading up to do some work at the golf club this arvo. I did the same thing later last Thursday and got "stormed off" - 20mm there and 11mm at my place. A repeat performance would be nice.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Pane »

G'day

Got to love picnic day!!!!!

Just washed the car, very warm and sticky out there. Cant see much from my vantage point here atm. Hopefully it fires up.

Looks like some things firing up between horsham and birchip :D

Cheers
Last edited by Pane on Mon Dec 06, 2010 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Jake Smethurst »

And my thunderstorm chart for today. Very similar to the BoM's. Apologies for it being late ... had unexpected jobs this morning.

Thunderstorm Forecast - Day 1 (Monday) Issued 12:15 PM EDT 6/12/2010

A strong trough of low pressure over South Australia is expected to approach western Victoria. The moisture content is quite high across Victoria today in a continued north to northeasterly airflow, and surface temperatures are expected to remain hot whilst there are colder temperatures aloft. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop over most parts of Victoria this afternoon, but particularly over the western districts and on the ranges. There is also the chance that thunderstorm activity will spread over the border from South Australia. Severe thunderstorms are also likely across the state today, particularly in the area indicated below where the strongest instability is likely this afternoon. Flash flooding and large hailstones will be the biggest risk. As for steering of thunderstorms today, it is expected to be slower moving over central and eastern Victoria, with movement to the southwest. As for western Victoria, activity is generally expected to move a little faster and towards the south to southeast. At the issue time of this chart, thunderstorms were already evident over northwest Victoria, moving southeast, and over eastern Victoria, generally remaining stationary.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Anthony Violi »

Love even more Pane when you dont go!

Convection starting to grow now, awaiting the first echoes in Central.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by johnno »

Looking good


Flood watches are now being issued by the BOM
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by wolfcat »

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING
For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the Central, East Gippsland,
South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East and West and South
Gippsland s.

Issued at 12:23 pm Monday, 6 December 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be
affected include Mildura, Horsham, Ballarat, Bendigo, Maryborough and Kyneton.
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Re: Victoria: Rain/storm event - 6th-10th December 2010 (Obs

Post by Anthony Violi »

Good move...i think we are on the verge of some enormous figures this next 3 days.

Today could produce 50mm in an hour at a worst case.
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