Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[tizza]

Pressure is slowly rising has been for last 2 hours which baffles me since a low is meant to be developing near us tonight?

Something similar to that happened a few weeks ago John. I think I asked the exact same question but got no response. Great to see the W/NW burbs do so well for a change!

[Didjman]

Johnno, Tizza,
The initial front/trough has passed, so pressure is rising. At the moment, the low out to our NW hasn't effected pressure gradients here.
Hope that helps:D
Peter

[Rhino]

Had 22mm here and very happy with that considering that a couple of days ago flooding around my area was on the cards so have dodged a bullet there by the looks, really don't need that . Takes me to 102mm for the month.

Rhino.

[HarleyB]

18mm for the system here. MTD total 85mm, which is well above average yet again

[johnno]

Johnno, Tizza,
The initial front/trough has passed, so pressure is rising. At the moment, the low out to our NW hasn't effected pressure gradients here.
Hope that helps:D
Peter

Yeah that makes sense Peter. Cheers.

[wolfcat]

first batch of geotagged photos from around melb with the rain today http://bit.ly/dsVbRB" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[stormygirl]

I'm now up to 43mm since 2pm this arvo! Event total 47mm and 134mm MTD.

The lights were out on the intersection of Huntingdale and Ferntree Gully Rds (Mt Waverley/East Oakleigh) at 5:30 this arvo (on my way out...just back now), and we have had a few power brown outs too. The Wetlands on Huntingdale Rd, Mt Waverley, are overflowing and there was also heaps of water on the Princes Hwy in Clayton. Tomorrow morning I'll go around to Scotchmans' Creek near the Oakleigh Public Golf Course and see what it looks like (too dark now).

Amazing stuff!!

[Supercellimpact]

The low pressure centre is over mildura you can see it on radar. 28mm from 9am and still raining lightly.. Just have to wait for this low to intensify and drop south.. Also will beat the citys record of October rainfall of 111mm by tommorrow morning.

[ShaneEEEE]

only 12.6mm here in Geelong (Grovedale). I must say I am dissapointed with that total, but we do not fair very well from NW rain bands, so with any luck our total will come from the wrap around, which I am enthusiastically watching on radar.

I remember getting 30mm from a 'shower' that came up from the SE off bass straight one may morning, so here is hoping for some serious easterly rain!!

[Supercellimpact]

Hey guys any tips on when the low will intensify and drop south??

[Ken]

Looks like the current easing of the heavier rain over central districts is unfolding as forecast by this morning's 00z run of ACCESS-C (city-based domain with 5km resolution) which contracts the initial rainband into the Northeast and south/west Gippsland districts by this time tonight... before bringing some more precip down across NW and W Vic during the o/night hours which then continues moving SSE, clipping the central district tomorrow morning and moving into Bass Strait as it becomes part of the wrap-around.

Meanwhile, the realtime wind profiler at Mt Gambier showed the belt of strong mid and high level winds ahead of the axis of the mid/upper trough had weakened considerably by 7:30pm AEDT tonight (below) indicating its leading edge is now to the east of the area.

Also noted the Bureau's NTFGS was restricting most of the forecast surface and elevated thunderstorm signal around northern and northeastern areas of Vic tonight into tomorrow. But it does show some elevated thunderstorm signal moving SE down across some parts of the central district early tomorrow morning. The official Vic forecast policy graphic confines the chance of thunderstorms to mainly the eastern half of the state tomorrow.

The wind-only balloon flight from Melbourne Airport late this arvo also showed surface SW'ly winds veering around through the W by 5000ft, NW by 10,000ft and N above that so the surface change had already undercut the NW/N'ly flow above.

P.S. the monthly EC forecasts currently show a bit of a signal for wet anomalies being dragged down again over SE Australia for Week 2 (the 2nd week of Nov between the 8th and 14th) as well as continuation of cooler than normal temperatures overall, but that's a story for another thread.

3-hourly precip forecast from ACCESS-C for 00z Sun morning:


Mt Gambier VHF wind profiler:

[Karl Lijnders]

Low will get close to 998hpa as it comes off the coast, fairly tight but not a deep system. Just a large producer thanks to moisture infeeds from every port of call!

Next band of rain coming into Bendigo may contain some heavier falls again. Light rain still falling here which is nice. Would be good to have a little break so the water can recede about the place before the next wave!

Interesting charts Ken. But remember that Access didn't have any rain the previous 00Z run for Melbourne till 10am this morning with most of melbourne having 2-8mm. So there is always variance but it seems the lull is well picked and needed.

[Karl Lijnders]

AWF Update 9:30pm

Rainfall over Central areas has gradually eased over the past two hours with the focus of heavy rainfall and flash flooding moving to the NE and earlier about W Gippsland. Further rainfall over the region has netted 2-5mm in the past 2hrs in Melbourne with 10-30mm in the NE and 10-20mm over the Melbourne Catchments.

Presently rain is working it's way south through the Northern Country and is moving more S than previously SE so rainfall is set to increase for Central VIC and again over the NE highlands over the coming few hours. Totals should nudge 10mm intially with this band from the north with the prospect for more heavier falls after midnight.

As the low gets closer to North Central VIC, rain in the NE will begin to move more SW/W and this will mean that rain will again encroach on Central areas overnight into the early morning with the chance of thunderstorms and flash flooding. As the low moves further south and passes over Melbourne then offshore, rainfall will the shift and wrap, coming in from the SW and then W before easing to showers. Winds will accompany the passage of the low tomorrow morning with relative warnings out for that event.

In the meantime, flood warnings are slowly being issued for many parts of the state. If you are close by a major river system in a flood watch area then please visit http://www.bom.gov.au/vic for the latest warnings.

Melbourne Forecast from 9:30-11pm

Saturday Evening: Rain increasing from the north and northeast with the chance of heavy falls later and thunder. Possible flash flooding closer to midnight. Light winds.

Sunday: Rain, locally heavy, with flash flooding and the chance of thunderstorms, tending to showers during the afternoon. Strong and gusty SW winds possibly reaching gale force shifting WNW later and easing.

Next AWF Update at 11pm

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Light rain still falling here, adding 1mm in the past hour or so that has given time for things to recede back and river flows to settle somewhat. Further rain coming in after 10:30pm from the north and then northeast after midnight.

57mm here which is just brilliant!!!

[daviescr]

Congrats on the flood chase Wolfcat, love the pics.

Everyone in bed, so think I might go for a drive in the big car.

[mutley]

Firstly, Thanks to those responsible for the AWF Updates - Fantastic addition to an already valuable resource.

Good steady rain this afternoon with 28mm recorded since 3:30pm. Rain easing in the last hour or so.

Most Melbourne Dams very doing well.

To 9pm,
Cardinia 30.6mm,
Upper Yarra 19.8mm,
Sugarloaf 33.2mm,
Silvan 29.8mm,
Tarago 18.6mm,
Yan Yean 30.4mm,
Greenvale 32.8mm,
Maroondah 29.8mm,
and
O'Shann 17.8mm.

The Thomson has record a modest 3.6mm. Hopeful the numbers improve come morning.

With most of the Goulburn-Murray Water dams close to full its going to be a hectic week for those downstream.

Stay safe.

[Ken]

Interesting charts Ken. But remember that Access didn't have any rain the previous 00Z run for Melbourne till 10am this morning with most of melbourne having 2-8mm.

Karl, which version of ACCESS were you referring to? Friday's 00z run of ACCESS-C forecasted light patchy falls to reach much of the Melbourne metro region leading up to 11am this morning (see below). Compare this with the analysed falls until 9am this morning:
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/port_phillip.shtml. Most of the falls around the metro area in the 24hrs til 9am were in the 0.5 to 3mm range.

[Rhino]

GFS still giving 50mm totals over 24 hrs around the west-central and eastern western district areas and 25mm over alot of areas so look forward to a nice wraparound over the coming hours. I still might end up with 50-60mm here.

Rhino.

[Karl Lijnders]

Ken, I believe it was 3 Day Access unless I was hallucinating, which is a pretty big chance LOL!

I ended up with 6.6mm out here and the corridor east and southeast of Melbourne did OK till 9am.

Next rainband nearly here...

BTW those wanting info on next weekend, that will be confined to General Weather until we get a better handle on the rainfall and storm potential. It will be in looking towards the next significant rainfall thread.

Ticked over to 58mm here now Might get to 70mm with the next lot....been a while uttering those accumulations!! 52mm since 9am!!!

[wolfcat]

Congrats on the flood chase Wolfcat, love the pics.

Thanks

tomorrow.... I think I head to the hills... maybe as far as the Upper Yarra as well

[AUSSKY]

Trentham has just hit 50mm (well I have), interestingly Clyve has 35.2mm but missed out on a very heavy shower this morning and atm it's foggy at his place and raining at Gunyah Bend!! - what a difference a kilomtre makes!! 168.6mm for the month - could I please have another 31.4mm please!
Jane