Northern NSW Weather 2009/2010

[Blackee]

This area, including Bellingen, Coffs Harbour, Kyogle & Lismore/Ballina/Byron is notorious for getting some massive storm and rain events during the Summer months.

This area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at the moment. They have had a reasonably quiet storm season, but there is still a long way to go!!

[Blackee]

This event may require its own thread, however I'll kick it off here.

Flood Watch for Major Flooding along the Castlereagh, Bogan, Lower Namoi and Lower Macquarie Rivers and local flooding along the Barwon Darling River between Walgett and Bourke.

Issued at 2:57 PM on Wednesday the 23rd of December 2009

Note: Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a
Flood Warning [see note below].

By Christmas Day a low pressure system, formerly tropical cyclone Laurence, will
track across the continent and become slow moving near the Qld/NSW border. Heavy
rain in excess of 200 millimetres is expected in some parts of the north western
and central parts of the state. Heaviest falls will start on Christmas Day and
continue in the area until Sunday.

On Christmas Day the start of local flooding is possible over a wide area, which
will be covered by Severe Weather Warnings issued closer to the event.

At this stage the following main river flooding is expected to develop over
Saturday and Sunday (26 to 27 December) :

1. Castlereagh River - major flooding
2. Bogan River - major flooding
3. Lower Namoi River downstream of Narrabri - major flooding
4. Lower Macquarie River downstream of Dubbo and including the Talbragar
River - major flooding
5. Barwon / Darling River between Walgett and Bourke - local flooding
leading to rapid river rises within 6 to 9 hours of heavy rain.
Initially these may exceed minor flood level ahead of further rises
due to inflows from other rivers.

The location and extent of this expected flooding is subject to change and will
be reviewed Thursday morning.

The Bureau and SES have issued a Significant Weather Media Release available on
www.bom.gov.au which contains advice for the affected communities.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams
must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to
higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor
Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for
which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. Across NSW,
about 70% of Flood Watches are followed by flooding.

[johnno]

And to follow that up Wes...



Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales

Significant Weather Media Release
Issued at 1517 on Wednesday the 23rd of December 2009

Flood threat for northern inland NSW over the Christmas Period.

Forecasters at the Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney are alerting the public to a
developing weather system that could bring flooding to parts of northern inland
New South Wales over the Christmas period.

Mr Barry Hanstrum, The Bureau's Regional Director for NSW, said today,"This
event could bring the heaviest widespread rainfall to northern inland NSW for
over a decade."

The rain is due to a low pressure system, formerly TC Lawrence, which will track
across the continent and become slow moving near the Qld/NSW border on Christmas
Day.

The Bureau's Regional Hydrology Manager, Mr Gordon McKay said today, "If
predicted rainfall totals of 200-300 mm eventuate, there could be major flooding
in many areas including Gilgandra, Coonamble, Bourke and Nyngan."

"Our main concern is flooding along the Castlereagh, Bogan, Lower Namoi and
Lower Macquarie Rivers, and a Flood Watch has been issued. It's too early to pin
down exactly where the worst flooding will be, but I urge people to maintain a
close watch on the latest forecasts and warnings from the Bureau of
Meteorology," he added.

Commissioner of the NSW State Emergency Service Murray Kear said that the SES
has been in close consultation with the Bureau and is planning and preparing its
support for the affected communities.

Mr Kear said, "Rural property owners in the affected areas should ensure that
they have sufficient food, fuel and medicine to last five to seven days.
Livestock should be relocated to high ground where they can be provided with
feed for the duration of any flooding. Farm equipment and pumps should also be
relocated to higher ground?

"Rain may make unsealed roads impassable and causeways may be covered in fast
flowing floodwaters. The SES urges that people never drive, ride, walk or play
in floodwaters as water may be deeper or faster flowing than it looks and
contain hidden snags and debris."

"There are many other things that people can do to help themselves, and these
can be accessed on the SES Website", he added.

For more information, please visit our website at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/med ... ndex.shtml

[Karl Lijnders]

And this is the only time I am not driving up through NSW to QLD!!! I love Gilgandra!! Might drive up!!!

[Karl Lijnders]

EC has 200mm or so in two days around C NSW between Forbes and Dubbo. Intense rainfall. Then another 60-100mm mid next week as things stall over the far north.

The food bowl is going under water!!!

[Karl Lijnders]

So the areas of main concern are going to be in C NSW around the Western slopes and plains and the northern slopes and plains too.

Could see some flooding develop in the coming 12 hours in the Dubbo-Gilgandra regions. Knowing the area very well, these areas will be heavily effected, but boy they will be happy. I wish I were staying at the Motor Inn on the Newell Hwy. That will for sure go under!!!! The owners would be happy - no doubt!!!

Then this process of rain will move into the coastal regions but weaken gradually.

[Karl Lijnders]

Heaviest rain around the Riverina overnight with 50-60mm around Wagga.

Some moderate to heavy rain is developing across the central parts of NSW. Should increase this afternoon and overnight.

[Karl Lijnders]

Oh and EC has 170mm in Dubbo tomorrow alone!! 100mm in Bourke tonight. So there is going to be some larger totals all around the place.

[Karl Lijnders]

57mm at Yevol is the highest to 5pm. 40mm in Dubbo and 48mm at Trangie. 15mm in the last hour at Dubbo so the rain is increasing.

Patchy rain moving into the eastern coastline too with the odd thunderstorm.

[norfolk]

51.6mm in Dubbo, 55.6mm at Trangie, 35.4mm in Bourke

[norfolk]

ok, i didnt see....did anywhere in NSW get the 200mm people were saying?

[Karl Lijnders]

Not quite in one go. But we are seeing rainfall increase as the next trough interacts with the weakening feature over the inland. 20-40mm in the last hour in many areas. Gilgandra has had 100mm in the last 18hrs and flood warnings issued for the region.

Since 9am, Condobolin has had around 60mm with 25mm in an hour.

So we may be seeing the flooding rains begin in the region.

[Karl Lijnders]

IDN65156


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING
For people in the NORTH WEST SLOPES, NORTH WEST PLAINS, CENTRAL WEST PLAINS and parts of the NORTHERN TABLELANDS, CENTRAL WEST SLOPES and UPPER WESTERN Forecast Districts.


Issued at 2:21 pm Sunday, 27 December 2009.


Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Armidale, Tamworth, Gunnedah, Moree, Narrabri, Walgett, Nyngan, Cobar and Bourke.

[Blackee]

Some amazing river levels at the moment. In particular, the Culgoa River.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD WARNING
FOR CULGOA AND BOKHARA RIVERS

Issued at 11:35 AM on Saturday the 2nd of January 2010

Flood Warning Number: 9

The Culgoa River at Kenebree peaked near 7.5 metres early Wednesday morning
[30/12/2009] which is the highest on record since 1944. The river is expected to
remain above major flood level [5.8 metres] for another week or so.

The Bokhara River at Goodwins was 2.63 metres and rising on Saturday morning
[2/01/2010] with moderate flooding.


Predicted River Heights/Flows:
Goodooga (Bokhara River) - reach 3.4 metres Sunday [3/01/2010] with moderate
flooding.

[Blackee]

D-day foir Coonamble today with the Castlereagh River expected to peak this afternoon. The peak has been slightly downgraded to 5.3 metres, down from 5.5m. Levee systems in place are at 6m, but concern that they may fail at a level of 5.5m.

Fingers crossed for those who chose to stay with their properties.

[Karl Lijnders]

4 Children are feared to be swept away in flood waters in Coonamble. The floods are expected to peak tonight.

Some local thunderstorms over the last few hours could be causing some flash flooding in locally stressed waterways in the region this afternoon.

[Blackee]

Why they were allowed to swim in the Castlereigh River in full flood in beyond me.
I hope their parents didn't allow them to swim there, otherwise they should be locked up!!

Edit: Children have been found alive!! Praise the lord!!