For the past few runs, EC's been showing a massive low starting to bomb in the northern Tasman Sea next weekend before drifting SE towards NZ early next week. Some other models including GFS, ACCESS, etc seem to agree. Both EC and ACCESS were suggesting the central pressure of this low to plunge into the 970's by the time it gets close to NZ.
On the flipside, EC's forecast uncertainty plots currently still show a fair bit of uncertainty/spread ( >1.8 standard deviations from its average uncertainty levels for this area over the 30 most recent 00z runs) among its forecast members for the MSLP in the area of this possible low. So looks like the wait 'n see game continues.
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