When will it rain? 1 March -?

[Gordon]

Seems like as good a thread title as any given our February flash drought.

Nothing much in the 'regular' forecast. However, to torture myself, I just had a look at BOM's latest climate forecasts, which are promising for 4-10 March. (Don't know if that's a good or bad thing with their poor record lately?)

[hillybilly]

Really does feel like it’s forgotten how to rain, and week ahead doesn’t hold a lot of promise. Also looks to be warm to hot, particularly for VIC.

Some light showers for Sunday, heavier in western TAS, then back to highs.

[hillybilly]

Wild day on Sunday in Tas. Fires in the north, though thankfully seem to have been pulled up pretty quickly, and hurricane like winds in the exposed south with heavy shower, small hail and snow on the mountain. Was quite a dry air stream so things really got shreaded by the ranges.

Max here of just 15C and just over 2mm of rain and that’s 7mm for the week which is our best in over a month . Locally, near 10mm in the hills around the Huon valley which is very welcome after such a dry few weeks, but many spots got zilch.

Now comes a long warm and dry spell. Bit over this endless summer weather tbh with Tas having another well above average summer (as did Vic).

[Tassiedave]

In the last 45 days Launceston has recorded about 9mm of rain.

[StratoBendigo]

The long weekend looks horrible in Northern Vic. Disgusting heat is likely.

On a brighter note - looks quite a bit cooler from March 12th onwards.

[Gordon]

Meanwhile, the rain seems to be doing that dry spell thing of appearing on the models many days out, and then disappearing after a couple more runs.

I guess a rain event will have to stick eventually, though that chart I posted at the beginning of this thread is starting to look like a flop

[hillybilly]

Geez it looks hot for northern Vic, and intermittently for southern parts. Should go above 38C in Mildura on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, and maybe Tuesday and even then nothing to flush it away. Suspect we are headed for lots of heat records if this pattern doesn’t break soon. Globally it’s running far warmer than any previous year, and SSTs are record warm so there’s so much heat round.

Still not seeing any meaningful rain. Perhaps something about middle of next week, but zero confidence it’ll stick.

[StratoBendigo]

I very much seeing strong parallels with March 2016 - both in terms of sea-surface temperatures and a transition from El-Nino to LaNina.

We had a spectacular heatwave in early March that year (3x 39c days in a row, and 8 days in a row over 35c), before things cooled off.

[hillybilly]

Guess everyone’s is tired of talking about endlessly perfect weather Tuesday here was a perfect 20C, yesterday a perfect 25C and today, well perfect and also Friday.

Not so nice for the weekend. VIC mid to high 30 pretty widespread and low 40s in the north. The change pushed through much of TAS a bit earlier so only one hot one down here. Next week finally brings some weather with the subtropical jet stalling near Tasmania with moisture streaming over us and Bass Strait. Eventually a low is likely to form. Too early to be too confident. Looks like rain for TAS developing in western parts spreading east on Monday. Stays south of VIC at this stage, but might spread north later.

[Pengaz]

I very much seeing strong parallels with March 2016 - both in terms of sea-surface temperatures and a transition from El-Nino to LaNina.

We had a spectacular heatwave in early March that year (3x 39c days in a row, and 8 days in a row over 35c), before things cooled off.

It also feels a bit similar to autumn 2019. It was much warmer and drier than average. I recall Easter fell later in that year and it was close to 30c here on 21 April (I remember it clearly as my wife was heavily pregnant and uncomfortable!).

[StratoBendigo]

Starting to see some hints of rain this time next week, along with temps cooling down a lot.

New ECMWF AIFS forecast is now available. Goes out to 360 hours.

[Gordon]

Yes there's a sniff of something in a week or so, with a few models now in loose agreement for significant rain (20mm plus) although they vary in where it will hit.

Will be interesting to see what BOM has to say in its afternoon forecast updates...

[Skywalker]

The timing of this coming heatwave has simply blown me away, all 3 days of the long weekend!

[hillybilly]

Near perfect 23C here today. Quite humid with a fair bit of low cloud this arvo.

Warm here tomorrow ahead of a bit of rain. Looks like we could get 10-15mm here over Sunday to early Tuesday which would be very welcome.

Shocker for VIC. Hottest spell at this time of year since 1940 for Melbourne. Assume pretty similar for much of the southeast. Not records, but not far off.

Might well have a rain thread after this heat. Progs looking pretty good. Guess we’ll see if it sticks.

[snowfall]

A very concerning few days ahead with regard to fire potential. Hope everyone stays safe.

It's already pushing 30c here this morning. Not too windy at the moment, but will likely strengthen as the day goes on.

What a summer. Over the past 6 weeks, we've had just 14mm. During the 6 weeks prior to that, we had 485mm. Incredible extremes. Not surprising, it's brown and bone dry here now.

For rain next week, unfortunately models have downgraded somewhat this morning, especially for central and western Vic. Really hoping this improves with a few more runs, but we'll see. The MJO is now active in our region so the potential for rain events has increased, but at this stage it seems that the best of it is set to run through the western side of the continent.

Further ahead, it's still very possible we'll end up with a La Nina and negative IOD, so potentially a wet second half of the year...

[stevco123]

A very concerning few days ahead with regard to fire potential. Hope everyone stays safe.

It's already pushing 30c here this morning. Not too windy at the moment, but will likely strengthen as the day goes on.

What a summer. Over the past 6 weeks, we've had just 14mm. During the 6 weeks prior to that, we had 485mm. Incredible extremes. Not surprising, it's brown and bone dry here now.

For rain next week, unfortunately models have downgraded somewhat this morning, especially for central and western Vic. Really hoping this improves with a few more runs, but we'll see. The MJO is now active in our region so the potential for rain events has increased, but at this stage it seems that the best of it is set to run through the western side of the continent.

Further ahead, it's still very possible we'll end up with a La Nina and negative IOD, so potentially a wet second half of the year...

As forecast by non-BoM organisations months ago. As I said many posts ago, March is the turning point. La Nina is already forming. Unsure why BoM has gone with a drier than normal 3 months ahead for the whole of Australia. Seems to be their "go-to" forecast these days. It'll just put them under more scrutiny unfortunately

[Macedonian]

Still under 30° at my place this arvo. Just! Won't stay that way for long.
Hate this kind of late heat and dry weather. Horrible.

[snowfall]

As forecast by non-BoM organisations months ago. As I said many posts ago, March is the turning point. La Nina is already forming. Unsure why BoM has gone with a drier than normal 3 months ahead for the whole of Australia. Seems to be their "go-to" forecast these days. It'll just put them under more scrutiny unfortunately

Yes, ocean temps are already heading in this direction. Loads of potential moisture, so when synoptics align, we could see a lot of rain through large areas of the country.

It got to 35c here today. But thankfully not quite as windy as predicted. Heading for a very warm night though.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

35.5 now, top of 37…
Pretty hot….

[Gordon]

Still under 30° at my place this arvo. Just! Won't stay that way for long.
Hate this kind of late heat and dry weather. Horrible.

Yes, I normally relax once Feb ends, but once a decade or so this sort of rubbish rears up.

At least BOM are hanging onto some sort of hope for mid-week onwards: almost certainly cooler, and 0-17mm of rain for us (hopefully closer to the 17 than the 0 ).