Becoming hot again: February 26-

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Feb 24, 2024 6:04 am

Another stinker setting up for Victoria peaking on Wednesday with temps well above 40C in northern areas. Likely near 40C at peak in the south. For TAS, more warm and we get some rain. Could well see some late season records on northern Vic and adjacent parts of SA and NSW.

Progs starting to latch onto a strong front about this time next week, so perhaps the pattern will break down moving into autumn.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Sat Feb 24, 2024 5:15 pm

This reminds me of Feb 1995. A few stinking hot dry and windy days in late-Feb, before a cool March and April.

Wednesday does look quite dangerous. Could be a very gusty change.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Sat Feb 24, 2024 6:33 pm

Typical Melbourne summer now, as predicted by long term weather forecasters.
5 to 6 days of cool weather, followed by 1 to 2 days of heat. Love it.
Big turn in the weather come mid March

Pengaz · Post by **Pengaz** » Sun Feb 25, 2024 8:36 am

I’m curious about these predictions of a shift back to wetter weather in March. Typically it’s one of our driest months - we often end up with an Indian summer with an extended run of warm mild weather into April. It feels like we’re on a similar trajectory again this year...

Elders long range weather forecast, which Ive often looked at over the years albeit being very high level, isn’t really flagging any significant rain events over the next 28 days:
https://www.eldersweather.com.au/28-day ... /melbourne

With IOD and SAM currently neutral, is it mainly the high sea surface temps that will drive this, with potentially more weather filtering down from the tropics from late season monsoon patterns?
Or more of an early autumn break with gruntier cold fronts?

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Feb 26, 2024 6:51 am

Nothing really changing in the progs for VIC. Going to be nasty heat in the northwest. EC has temps approaching 45C which I’d expect is a late season record.

Southern VIC, mostly mid to high 30s. Gusty winds and low humidity on Wednesday. A bad day for those in the bush.

TAS is cooler and a bit of rain, but mostly another western TAS event. Too dry down here now

I’m not seeing a shift to colder tbh anytime soon. Nationally we are running exceptionally warm on so many monthly to multi month time scales. Hopefully some rain, but progs keep on jumping off events. Long range progs show a very warm March and Autumn and patchy rainfall odds.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Feb 27, 2024 9:17 pm

Nice day for most today. 25C here.

Tomorrow’s the hot one. Dry conditions for VIC and wind will make it pretty unpleasant. Fires a continued worry with lots of warnings up.

Some remarkable numbers the last few days over inland OZ which highlight what a nasty airmass this is. Fortunately stays mostly north of VIC, except the Mallee.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:40 am

Full cloud, 23C, light winds and a few spots or rain here. BOM's max temp for us revised down to 32C from 35C a few days ago.

We've dried out a lot in the last few weeks, so not underestimating the impact/ fire risk with the strong winds forecast for later today, but with this cooler, damper start, at least the danger 'window' is reduced somewhat.

Lucia · Post by **Lucia** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:47 am

Gordon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:40 am Full cloud, 23C, light winds and a few spots or rain here. BOM's max temp for us revised down to 32C from 35C a few days ago.

We've dried out a lot in the last few weeks, so not underestimating the impact/ fire risk with the strong winds forecast for later today, but with this cooler, damper start, at least the danger 'window' is reduced somewhat.

Yes, I too am happy that cloudy somewhat cooler weather is around, but somewhat confused by the forecast of zero rain for Lilydale today and radar is telling me different

Tempest · Post by **Tempest** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 1:13 pm

Overcast and below the forecast max so far today in Warragul. Showers moving in across Melbourne so don't expect temps to get any higher now thankfully.

Dane · Post by **Dane** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 1:37 pm

Unusual day here temperature reached 26.9c at 10.45am on my PC, then dropped back to
24.0c at 12.30pm under heavily overcast skies with just a few drops of rain at one point.
Winds are not that strong. Temperature is now starting to move up again and is now up to
26.2c. Expect the temperature to still get into the 30's later today with a few sunny breaks
later. But so far nothing out of the ordinary.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 1:48 pm

Don't be fooled. It definitely was a miss by the BoM in terms of forecasting, but the hottest part of the day is yet to come and will be between 5 and 7pm.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 2:56 pm

A max here so far (3pm) of 26C feels like a win, even though temps are likely to rise further.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 3:44 pm

80 km/h winds out West. Still a long way to go...

Dane · Post by **Dane** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:02 pm

As I expectged the sun did come out in Ballarat this afternoon and the temperature then shot up.
From around 24 degrees at 1pm the temperature has so far reached 34.4c at Ballarat Airport with
winds gusting to 72kmh. MY PWS has so far reached 33.6c and gusts are getting up to 52kmh.
Not very pleasant.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:44 pm

Yep, 31C and windy here now. But still grateful for the much-reduced big fire risk window.

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:10 pm

Avoid the worst of it down here. Max of 30C with a few light showers this evening. Quite a few rumbles but the serious rain is slipping south.

Nasty day for VIC. Fortunately cloud clearance was later for central areas. Peak of 43.8C in the northwest is not a record, but is getting close for the time of year. Heat now moves into NSW. Unfortunately the dry continues for another week or longer

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:24 pm

For those of you who do work at BoM, can you please make the suggestion that Total Fire Bans are included in your warnings, like they used to be in years gone by?
I hear from so many people that they had no idea today was a TFB in Melbourne because it didn't say it on the BoM website.

Macedonian · Post by **Macedonian** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:03 pm

It was only around 22° for most of the afternoon until a late peak of 27.5° and still 26° now..

Pengaz · Post by **Pengaz** » Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:07 pm

Temp still hovering at 32c here, shooting up with the wind change approaching but still a little while off. Incredible for this time of night!

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:14 am

A late max of 33.4c here yesterday, once the cloud cleared. We had a short spell of spitty rain around midday but not enough to register in the gauge. Cool change arrived just after midnight but it still took several hours to take effect.

We're only on about 12mm for the month. Very much below average.