Mild then more showers, 29 Dec to 5 January

[Gordon]

Looks like a few cool/mild and almost dry days except for the far northwest, then more wet weather from about the 2nd to get 2024 off to a good start .

Favouring the east at this stage, although WATL has significant rain for west central and north central, and at least something further west and north.

[StratoBendigo]

Wednesday next week is starting to look rather interesting. Hard to say yet, but 20-40mm might be what kicks off 2024...

[hillybilly]

Was thinking new thread time. This system looks potent, particularly for NSW and QLD. VIC mostly looks to be north and east. Another system that will be good for northeast Tasmania but leave every one else crossing fingers for a south or west extension.

Some signs that the instability could stick around for ten or more days, but guess we will see.

[StratoBendigo]

Well, there's some interesting rainfall totals in the 00Z forecast models for Vic next week. Looks like it'll keep things damp for a while...

[hillybilly]

For those on Twitter we caught a few snow showers around South Wellington today. Was snowing this morning to about 1000m. Didn’t settle but still good to see some flakes.

[Gordon]

Not quite in that league, but a cool day here with a max of just 14.5C.

It's been an odd December. Only one day over 30C, but few really cold days either, so our average maximum will be about average - even though it feels like it's been colder.

[Gordon]

Models (and BOM's 4 dayer) holding up well for rain. Totals look decent, and rain should begin for most in the next 48 hours.

[snowfall]

Still looking like a couple of wet days coming up, starting with tomorrow. There has been a bit of a downgrade in the models on rainfall totals and there’s still a lot of inconsistency between them, despite being less than 24 hours away. For example, UKMO concentrates the largest falls tomorrow through central Vic while ECM has a bigger focus across western Vic and GFS is preferring northern Vic. Take your pick!

All up, it’s looking a bit messy and patchy. But on the upside, most areas should see some rain, either in the form of showers or storms over the next few days, and some spots will get some hefty falls. Will hopefully be a good top up from last week’s rainfall. Also possible something brewing for early to mid next week?

Happy new year everyone!

[StratoBendigo]

A bit of an upgrade in this evening's forecast models. Tomorrow afternoon looks like it could be quite volatile. LI of -6 and CAPE of 1200 according to GFS... Decent.

[hillybilly]

Looks likes another mainly VIC event this one. Ok for north east TAS but only dribble here. Geez this pattern has been stuck for a month.

Today will see storms spread east across Victoria. They will probably struggle near the coast, but be strong near and north of the ranges. Expecting more heavy falls locally.

Tomorrow is a bit of a repeat though more widespread.

Part two for early next week is firming up in the models and looks more widespread for the whole southeast.

[Tassiedave]

My in laws report peas sized hail from a current storm in Horsham

[Wilko]

Take precautions all with severe storms heading east
Should be in Melb area from approx 2pm

[snowfall]

Plenty of rumbling at the moment here with a storm coming in. It’s incredibly dark, almost like the sun has set and it’s dusk. Wind has really picked up too.

Looking at the radar, rain should be in Melbourne in the next hour or so.

[Gordon]

30mm in under an hour here, lots of local flash flooding. Most lightning I recall - several direct hits here or almost. Power just back on. Crazy storm.

[Dane]

Very Big storm in Ballarat as well very Lightning active.
Thunder is still rumbling around at the moment been going for more than 2 and a half hours.
Too wet and too much Lightning to check my official gauge but my PWS is on 42 mm's now.
35mm's of that fell between 12.45 and 1.15pm.
Quite a bit of flash flooding 13000 people without power.
El Nino ?

[snowfall]

Absolutely bucketing down here. 23mm so far.

Wild storm. Big wind gusts. Lots of lightning and huge, house-shaking booms. Power came on and off a few times, and now it’s completely off. Definitely fits the severe storm definition.

[Adam38]

Awesome Thunderstorm!! So much lightning and 40mm

[Adam38]

Awesome Thunderstorm!! So much lightning and 40mm

[jmw2207]

20c size hail here before. Nasty out there

[snowfall]

Rain has eased off now but should continue for maybe an hour or so. Still some big booms. This has been a very active storm.

31mm so far. Not quite as intense as the boxing day storm we had here, but still pretty fierce. Power is still off unfortunately.