Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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41C in Mildura and 16C on the west coast. That’s a crazy gradient. Don’t imagine it gets much stronger, particularly given the lack of a cold front.
Rain really patchy today as expected.
The main low back in SA is now weakening and will be caught by the westerlies. Not expecting a lot more for VIC, though with storms will be some local heavier falls. Another hot day tomorrow for northern Vic.
Rain spreading into TAS from about late tomorrow, heaviest in the west.
Just scraped a storm early this evening. Not much rain, as we were a few kms too far east. But we had what I reckon was the loudest thunder clap I have ever heard. It shook the house like an earthquake and caused a power surge. We’ve also been in fog almost constantly since saturday morning. Today was a real pea-souper - dense fog all day and tonight with visibility down to about 30 metres or so. It’s going to seem very bright when the sun finally appears!
Most recent sounding for Melbourne indicates a pretty low lifted index, and Windy.com has elevated CAPE values all around Melbourne this afternoon. It also just “feels” unstable - warm and humid and hazy on the surface with some high clouds around. Wouldn’t shock me at all to see some nice storms popping up soon.
Of course it’s Melbourne so I’m not getting my hopes up too much
Arrived back from a week up the coast yesterday to find 28mm in the gauge over past 7 days, mostly over the weekend and from a noisy overnight storm Sunday night from what I hear.
The moisture over E Vic looks extremely high going by the current water vapour sat image. Its extremely humid here, no sunshine all day. Maybe sodden old Maffra might soon become mouldy sodden old Maffra.
That warm front analysed on the current MSLP chart is over Vic SE ranges right now with large storms taking off. The TT charts show only slow steering winds so they might stay up there, if not we are in for another dousing.
1st time our evaporative cooler has not been effective due to humidity
Instability trying to get going North of Melbourne
Definitely going to be interesting 24hrs ahead
Last chance for storms today. Looks pretty hit and miss for VIC, but probably better for TAS. Precip water values are exceptionally high, but system is being dragged south.
Hoping to get at least 10mm here, but might struggle. Starting to get dry down here.
TBH this system has been pretty underwhelming again for most of us. Some spots have done great, but many have only had 5-15mm. Bit of a waste of all that humidity, instability and exceptional Synoptics.
Ripper of a lightshow with booming thunder currently pushing through here at work, including 2 massive bolts which rapidly changed my mind about going outside to check the letterbox.
Equally impressive storm last night about 11pm which ruined my sleep & sent the Kelpie running for our bedside.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.