Warm then more showers, 4/12 to13/12

[Gordon]

New thread needed. Can we keep the rain going from late this week? WATL seems to think so. (Finish date may end up needing adjustment...)

[StratoBendigo]

Certainly one to watch. EC has a signifcant amount of rain in the Mallee next week. Hopefully that won't eventuate.

Also the TC in the Coral Sea... Hmmmm.

[Petros]

.....Also the TC in the Coral Sea... Hmmmm.

....which one model tracks all the way down Aus E coast to Merimbula I saw 12 hrs back.

[hillybilly]

This one again looks impressive and very long lived. Days of humid weather. Starts with showers and rain then sorta clears, then showers and storms return in waves. Should deliver for all of southeast Australia, and be heavy out in western Vic and South Australia which is a bit unusual.

We are stuck in a positive SAM for the next few weeks to months so these big blocks with cutoffs will likely continue. This weather is about the opposite of what usually comes at this point in El Niño events, but is consistent with positive SAM. We’ve got a record ozone hole and late break down in the polar vortex which looks to be tied to record stratospheric water vapour.

[StratoBendigo]

This one again looks impressive and very long lived. Days of humid weather. Starts with showers and rain then sorta clears, then showers and storms return in waves. Should deliver for all of southeast Australia, and be heavy out in western Vic and South Australia which is a bit unusual.

We are stuck in a positive SAM for the next few weeks to months so these big blocks with cutoffs will likely continue. This weather is about the opposite of what usually comes at this point in El Niño events, but is consistent with positive SAM. We’ve got a record ozone hole and late break down in the polar vortex which looks to be tied to record stratospheric water vapour.

It's one whacky El-Nino, that's for sure. Reminds me a bit of 1987. A strong El-Nino, but average rainfall. I well remember getting rained out in early-December that year on a school camp in Gippsland for several days.

Quite a strong temp gradient with this trough. A tough one to forecast.

[Sean]

This one again looks impressive and very long lived. Days of humid weather. Starts with showers and rain then sorta clears, then showers and storms return in waves. Should deliver for all of southeast Australia, and be heavy out in western Vic and South Australia which is a bit unusual.

We are stuck in a positive SAM for the next few weeks to months so these big blocks with cutoffs will likely continue. This weather is about the opposite of what usually comes at this point in El Niño events, but is consistent with positive SAM. We’ve got a record ozone hole and late break down in the polar vortex which looks to be tied to record stratospheric water vapour.

It's one whacky El-Nino, that's for sure. Reminds me a bit of 1987. A strong El-Nino, but average rainfall. I well remember getting rained out in early-December that year on a school camp in Gippsland for several days.

Quite a strong temp gradient with this trough. A tough one to forecast.

No such thing as a normal El Nino anymore. Normal La Nina and normal El Nino exist in world where the net gain and net loss of total energy averages out over time. Currently, we're in a net gain only situation, which influences systems the world over, leading to atypical patterns occurring more frequently.

This hot blob of water, which is feeding moisture over SE Australia, is helping to cancel El Nino's typical effects (in Vic), which is welcome. IMO, storms are better in El Nino years, so I'm very curious to see how the rest of summer pans out if more moisture is added to the equation.

[hillybilly]

Progs backed off a little, but still looks solid. One part that slipped a bit under the radar is the heat. It mostly stays north of Victoria, but the Mallee will fry on a few days. Close to 45C on Friday, and then a couple of days into the low 40s next week. Horrid conditions in NSW where some spots will get days of 40C+ and Sydney’s west has up to 44C forecast on the coming weekend.

Friday also looks breezy. Hot, breezy, showers and some storms. Yuck kind of day for much of VIC.

[Gordon]

Not sure the models are coping very well with the complexity... 4pm and still no update to BOM's 4 dayer.

[StratoBendigo]

Rain band moving through at present. Looks like a couple of mm in it.

[snowfall]

Very warm, but otherwise pleasant day today. Max of 26c here. It’s the calm before the storm though. Expecting gale force northerlies to start up overnight and during tomorrow here. It will be one of those horrid fan-forced oven type days - definitely not looking forward to it. One good thing is the recent rainfall, so hopefully the fire risk won’t be as high as it would otherwise be.

Looking at the week ahead, rainfall prospects seem pretty good overall, although there is still a fair bit of divergence between models and model runs on the details.

[hillybilly]

Hot day ahead for much of VIC, and warm for TAS. Rain building late. The band will be split in two parts. One runs through TAS today with a swathe of 10-25mm. The second through VIC from late arvo through middle of tomorrow. That one is narrow and slow, so will be locally heavy, but as it weakens as it edges east and north will be strong gradients.

Next week looks warm to hot and humid. Messy situation with the main trough back through SA.

Horrible heat inland with temps like to peak in the 46 to 48C range. Could well see some early summer records and perhaps some December records.

[StratoBendigo]

45c forecast for Mildura and Swan Hill today. Marree got to 46.5c yesterday. I struggle to see it getting warmer than that in Vic and NSW.

Remarkable temperature gradient too. Will be volatile, especially in SA today.

Incidentally, 3mm yesterday afternoon here.

[Wilko]

That wind is downright Nasty

[Wilko]

68km and rising

[StratoBendigo]

38c is the hottest temp so far today in the Mallee. I think 45c is not going to happen. 40c might not either.

Cloudy with showers and 29c here.

[weathergasm]

Last sounding indicates some pretty marginal instability - did the BOM put the “possibly severe” qualifier in their forecast because whatever storms (not severe in and of themselves) pop up would coincide with these awful winds?

[stevco123]

Overhyped by the look of it (and that's a good thing). Melbourne 32, and mildura 35 (forecast was 44) with cloud and rain moving in it seems?

[James]

as usual they are clinging to the severe storms possible, i cant see anything happening?

[StratoBendigo]

Howling gales here atm. Half expecting next-door neighbor's tree to land on our house....

[hillybilly]

Handy 7mm overnight in southeast TAS. Mostly cleared now.

Today is mainly a western and central VIC day with a stalled cloud and rainband, with a narrow area of good falls. Expecting locally 25mm+ where the band settles.

Nasty heat in NSW. Yesterday’s cloud was a bit more persistent than expected. Suspect not many complaints from people in the north