Deep low, followed by cold outbreak: June 22-30

[hillybilly]

Another low inbound for the southeast with a deep low in the Australian Bight and a second low in the Tasman Sea. Initially this will spread a fairly mild northeast flow across the southeast with potentially heavy rain for parts of eastern Victoria and Tasmania, then rain and showers will wrap in from the west as the low approaches from the west.

It should be mostly snow in the alps, initially quite high but will lower later in the event. Depending on the detail could end up with a decent cold outbreak as it clears later next week.

[Gordon]

I'm back after a bit of time locked out due to a technical glitch . (If anyone is in the same boat, I found I was able to get in touch with our helpful admins by messaging via the Australian Weather Forum on Facebook.)

Back to the weather, and we've now had 76mm here - 7mm shy of our June average. Should get there judging by the progs!

Was in south-west Vic last week where the sliding fronts have been really dumping. Unbelievably wet with most streams over their banks and a couple of minor flood warnings. Mt William in the Grampians has had 240mm so far this June, which is a lot even for there, although the historical records for that site are next to useless due to many AWS outages over the years, so we may never know just how exceptional that is.

It's been very cold here as with most places. Some 'proper' records in NSW: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-21/ ... /102505184. Not up to date yet with Vic records, but I heard Shepparton may have had a record low maximum today?

[Mike]

Yep 5.5 for a high in Shepp so far. Was below 5 in Kilmore I think as well.

So much for mild flow haha.

I had my coldest max in June since living here (7th June) high was 5.7c, 3.2 and breezy atm.

Some hints of pretty solid falls tomorrow night into Friday on and perhaps just north of divide from central westward.

[StratoBendigo]

Got to 9c here today after another -2c start. This afternoon the colder air drifted in from the Northeast - Spectacularly cold around Shepparton. Up there with the July 1995 event which I remember to this day.

Will be interesting to see how tomorrow pans out. I'm thinking 15-20mm over the next few days.

A farmer friend near Donald reckons they've had a great start to the winter cropping season.

[snowfall]

A chilly day here too. All day it was below 7c except for about half an hour around 3pm when it snuck briefly up to a max of 7.9c. Must have been a slightly warmer air mass that passed through because the temp plummeted quickly afterwards.

Otherwise, we’ve been mostly in fives and sixes for the day. Currently 4c.

[Macedonian]

Woohoo! I'm managed to get back in on my old phone on WiFi. The new one needs its cookies and cache dealt with but it's not clear to me how to do it. Me and tech- chalk and cheese!

What a cold day for Central Vic. It was the same temp in Shepparton as it was at my work in Macedon. 6°! crazy!
Even worse here on the hill. I had 1.3° to a frigid max of 3.1°, and even that was only momentarily. It was in the 2's for most of the day. Nasty.

Did anyone take note of the super cold morning temps along the divide in NSW today? Crazy cold and frosty, Walcha just over -10° and Cooma and an AWS just out of Lithgow both rounded to -10°. Makes our Victorian mins look totally benign.

[93ben]

Woohoo! I'm managed to get back in on my old phone on WiFi. The new one needs its cookies and cache dealt with but it's not clear to me how to do it. Me and tech- chalk and cheese!

Glad you got back in. I had to tweak some things and it looks like it worked as everyone has seemed to be able to log back in again Plus what I was trying to change works now. So thankfully I won't need to touch it again!

[hillybilly]

Progs looking good. Low moves into southwest Victoria today with an old cold pool, while strong warm air advection kicks in for eastern Victoria and Tasmania. Showers and storms across much of Vic with more snow on the alps. Rain down here, becoming heavy. Classic east coast Tasmania special.

Temps will be interesting. Some very cold temps this morning, and cloud has already over run many spots. Will take a long time to warm up. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some impressive low high, though down here expect we may well see our maxs tomorrow morning around 9am when warm Tasman Sea air wraps in, so could be a few omg it only got to 8C followed by 9am temps of 11C

Desperately need this event for eastern Tas as the westerlies have been stubborn and only delivered dribbles for a few months. Pockets down here are running decile 1 ytd. West coast has been running above average so crazy rainfall gradients west to east.

[snowfall]

Models are definitely looking good for your area HB. Hope you get a good drenching.

A cold, overcast day here today. A max of 9c and currently 7.8c. We had some light rain earlier but not enough to register in the gauge. A northeasterly wind has really picked up in the last hour or so. Not expecting a great deal of rain here tonight and tomorrow, probably less than 10mm. Much better potential in northern areas of Vic, which should do well.

[StratoBendigo]

Raining here again and 6c. Already 6mm this evening.

Alps are getting more snow too.

[hillybilly]

Cold one here today with a cracking frost then a slow rise to 8.8C under cloudy skies. Rain started about 5pm and has been steady since closing in on 4mm. Looks like a wet 36 hours. Could well see more rain in this period than we’ve seen in the last eight to ten weeks if the progs are right.

Unfortunately uppers are warming here so won’t be any snow on the mountain come Saturday.

[Macedonian]

Snow falling here since 8pm but not settling. A tad too warm at 1.8°.
Max today was an even 5°.

[hillybilly]

Rain all night here and approaching 20mm. Wettest day here since February, and for Hobart wettest day since December last year. Been a long time since we last had a solid rain event.

Quite a few places in the 40-80mm range on the east coast. So far totals are below typical thresholds for major trouble but there’s still another 12-24 hours of rain to come so would not be surprised to see flood warnings get posted during the day.

Some of the valleys have managed to trap cold air overnight so 24 hour maxs will be around 6C. Quite remarkable for a non snow event. Areas facing east are warming steadily as warm Tasman Sea air spireads south and west.

Melbourne and VIC on the cold westerly side of this system so showers, some storms and snow in the alps. One of those classic systems that reverses the normal weather patterns.

Btw people keeping an eye on the loopy forecasts coming out for next week. Progs are jumpy but throwing up some very odd deep inland lows. Not feeling very El Niño like atm

[StratoBendigo]

Another lazy 20mm overnight. 29mm this past couple of days.

[snowfall]

Good to see some solid falls reported.

We've been stuck in a very persistent rain shadow, so only a mere 0.6mm. It was never really going to do a lot here.

Not looking forward to the wind over the next few days. There were some crazy gusts here last night that shook the house at times.

Still cold though. Currently 6.3c and feeling very chilly in the wind.

[Blackee]

Glad to see parts of Tasi getting good falls HB. Cold and wet 24 hours at Mansfield. MTD rain sitting at 106mm presently and ground is very wet. Creeks, rivers and gullies all flowing well.

Will be interesting to see what evolves next week or so with the big inland low moving east.

BTW for those interested, Lake Eildon is back above 97% and should be full by mid July if this rain patturn continues.

[Gordon]

Yes, so good to see southern and eastern Tas finally getting decent rain, with the radar suggesting it should keep coming for a while yet.

And good to see Bendigo vying for the title of the new Beech Forest .

Back here, we've been incredibly rain-shadowed, with rain constantly creeping to within a few kilometres, but not quite making it. Still, no complaints after the year we're having, and our 4mm pushes us to an even 80mm mtd (3mm shy of the June average). Still very cold - 6C currently and it seems to be about that (give or take a couple) every time I look over the last couple of days.

[StratoBendigo]

Saturation central here. Another 10mm this morning takes us to 41m this week. 32mm since yesterday.

Also cracked 100mm for June. Incredible for an incoming El-Nino.

[QldTwister]

Widespread 10 to 20mm on and north of the ranges in Vic great result lots wet muddy happy farmers im sure

30-60mm in Adel area with 70-90mm in the hills big falls for them for 24 hours

Also 10-20mm on and west of ranges in NSW and big falls eastern Tas

Very wet June for some and more widespread heavy rain next week JUne going to finsh very wet for much of the country

[hillybilly]

Rained all day here. Fog down to sea level at times. A further 20mm in the gauge. Very welcome after a really dry few months. Dam jumped by about 20cm and tanks gone from nearly empty to about half full. About six weeks worth of water in less than 24 hours

Really spread the rain around this system with the eastern third of Tas all doing well.