Big rain event 12-14 October

[Dane]

Only light showers here, I have recorded 1.2mm's and 2.4mm''s at Ballarat Airport so far.

[Wilko]

Rain forecast Thursday: Sheffield 150-200mm, Deloraine 120-200mm, Scottsdale 120-200mm, Devonport 80-120mm, Exeter 80-120mm, Burnie 80-120mm. The higher of these ranges would be all time 24 hr records in some cases. For example the Scottsdale record is just 110mm.

Geez Wow that’s scary

[Wilko]

The donuts back !

[stevco123]

The donuts back !

Yep, strong rainshadow but redeveloping to the south east of Melbourne again.

I still think tomorrow morning will be fine in Melbourne, with heavy rain tomorrow night for 3 to 4 hours

[Petros]

VEEERRYYY annoying BoM doesn't put overnight forecast totals in their forecasts. So 30 to 50mm tomorrow for example, but what about tonight?

Just run the AccR model the BOM provide, shows rain in 6 hr increments.

A muggy overcast mid level scuddy day here, light easterly 20.5C max, then the light easterly backed to a light westerly late arvo, temp dropped like a stone, and we now have steady drizzle from the W.

Plenty of moisture over us, the stream intact from NW WA, cold air looming. Tomorrow will be interesting. I cant see how this wont end up as an ECL:

[Skywalker]

The donuts back !

Yummy yummy donuts. Very tasty indeed, especially right now. Wouldn't exactly be a bad result if things fizzed out altogether. Highly unlikely though at this stage.

[Sean]

The heaviest rain has been jumping around for a week, so I wouldn’t have complete faith in current progs - i.e. some surprises may await (as they always do).

I don’t want to see any damage, but I really would love some heavy rain.

[jimmyay]

Wasn’t last week enough for you

[Sean]

Wasn’t last week enough for you

I can never get enough severe weather. It’s a disease

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Winds picked up.. wind gust 31kl about 1.30am

18.70mm upto midnight. Predicted 5 - 10mm

16.5c beats 3….

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

[StratoBendigo]

Steady rain all night. Bendigo AWS on 49mm and likely to break the record of wettest October daily rain total of 57mm, which resets at 9am.

Still a bit in it going by satpic.

It looks like West of here hasn't had anywhere near as much rain, which is a good thing.

[93ben]

Looks like it keeps getting downgraded everytime the forecast gets run.

[Didjman]

From satpic / radar - I can't see it letting up here till after lunch. Will be interesting to see how much has fallen here in this round(2),

[hillybilly]

Steady rain here since midnight with 8mm in the gauge. Crazy rainfall gradients in Tas with 150mm near the top of the Tiers in the north, 0mm 50-100km to the south in the valley then back up to 5-10mm in the bounce zone south of Hobart. A few sites showing records, with plenty more to come Rivers yet to rise much, but that won’t stay the case for long.

Victoria looks wet, though again strong gradients. Strong amplification on the northern slopes and rainshadows in the lee. Rain will pick up for most areas near the trough, mid to late arvo.

Btw crazy humidity for October. Precipitable water values are near or above 30mm atm which is near or above historical records for this time of year.

Not sure whether it will hold but next week could bring the first taste of summer. Be strange given recent weather

[Macedonian]

Rained all day yesterday and all night as well here at Mt Macedon. I got up about an hour ago to tickle up the fires and I found leaks where there have never been leaks before.
Will waddle out to the gauge a little later if it lets up.
Edit* 62mm for the event so far. That takes us pretty much to our LT average of 930mm.

[drewgon]

40mm from midnight in Nagambie about 70mm for the event so far..we were originally forecast about 100mm so I expect we will hit it

[Tassiedave]

Tas rain overnight: Great Lake East 156mm, Lake Mackenzie 120mm, Fisher River 111mm, Sheffield 100mm, Kimberley 52mm, Mt Barrow 69mm, Wynyard 33mm, Devonport 26mm, Gray 40mm, Launceston 6mm, Hobart 0.6mm

[StratoBendigo]

Officially now our wettest October day on record. And it's not letting up.

Campaspe River is starting to look bad. Secondary spillway at Eppalock a chance of going over....

[occluded]

Campaspe River is starting to look bad. Secondary spillway at Eppalock a chance of going over....

Rochester SES Unit Controller was on Sunrise (Ch7) this morning with the sandbag trailer in the background - was concerning to hear talk of the flood levels exceeding the 2011 levels which had put a good portion of the eastern and middle of the town under last time.

[Pengaz]

19.5mm so far here, no rain for the past few hours though due to the rain shadow. We don’t need any more.

Phenomenal totals in the north of the state. Swan Hill and Mildura totals stand out, shows there is plenty more still to chug down. This one is memorable.