Vic - potential rain in the east from an inland low 5-8/1/22

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:20 pm

Western Fwy only a kilometre from here; will be a death trap in this rain, hope they've closed it.

Adam38 · Post by **Adam38** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:38 pm

Certainly looks nasty!! Watching slowly edge closer and I’m hearing plenty of rumbles now.

Tassiedave · Post by **Tassiedave** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:39 pm

Lots of flooding and damage being reported on twitter for Ballarat and surrounds

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:40 pm

Tomorrow afternoon seems to be the time for us in all the 00z forecasts to get something...

Petros · Post by **Petros** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:49 pm

A pair of stormy periods here 7.15am, and later in the morning (I was driving to Melb then), and persistent light easterly drizzle since has provided 20.75mm to start us off for this event. Here is the present synoptic:

This is (to me) still a unique situation. We have an anomalously strong (for early Jan) high 1026hPa at a sub-Tassie latitude, a classic summer easterly dip over inland E/SE Aus continent, and for Gippsland, ....we have a fresh easterly, with the classic low level scud clouds and persistent thick drizzle training in from the east all day, ...yet the rain bands when tracked via the radar, are arriving in streams from the NNW (the "normal" storm tracks).

Normally in these situations, the radar shows the rain bands tracking along (matching) the mean sea level pressure gradients.

If I'm wrong in this perception, please let me know. We are always learning, ......and as you get older you finally realise "you aint yet seen it all".

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:55 pm

Just got power back so posting in a rush before we lose it again.

Insane storm, never seen one like it. Black core won't move, flooding everywhere, Vic Emergency lighting up like a Christmas tree, must be 100mm plus by now but can't get to the gauge. Really want it to move on now. UK Met was right

.

Hoping severe/ tornadic winds stay away.

Adam38 · Post by **Adam38** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:05 pm

Looks scary from Bacchus Marsh, heaps of pulsating lightning and a shelf cloud is coming over the hills.

James · Post by **James** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:08 pm

Why is it so barren over this way between the storm and the cloud to the east? I understood conditions were good for it today but it just didn't happen so curious to know why, did the storm in the west zap the energy?

Mike · Post by **Mike** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:17 pm

As that line expands to the NNW the new cells are all pretty intense. Can see the tops of the stuff around Ballan and they are still very strong mature cells. Going to be some interesting totals under this line. Hi res model at 18 and 00z had pretty ridiculous totals in spots around the areas seeing these falls, amazing that they might verify somewhat.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:21 pm

We're on 75mm and still belting down. Hearing of district totals double that.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:49 pm

Living in a top-of-catchment area, we've never had a Watch & Act for flooding before. Just went for a drive and all roads out of our place are impassable due to floodwater. (Now up to 95mm.)

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:19 pm

Another line of stationary black cored storms have popped up around St Arnaud and Maryborough. It'll be interesting to see how long they last and whether they drift over here tonight.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:25 pm

Amazing conditions out west. Thanks for the updates Gordon and hope you stay safe and don’t lose power for too long.

I’ve been watching the cells from here - so close, yet so far! The line has been back filling further to the west but otherwise fairly stationary, leaving areas to the east including Melbourne stuck between this and the large train of rain going from the north east to Gippsland.

Humid but otherwise dry here today apart from a few spots of rain that didn’t register in the gauge. 1mm of drizzle overnight though.

Sean · Post by **Sean** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:29 pm

Every time we get an easterly dip, it seems like Melbourne gets caught in the nothing in between.

Models seem keen on thundery conditions all night long, but we'll see.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:45 pm

Sean wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:29 pm Every time we get an easterly dip, it seems like Melbourne gets caught in the nothing in between.

Models seem keen on thundery conditions all night long, but we'll see.

I never thought of it that way, but you're right about Melbourne being avoided with the easterly dip.

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:16 pm

Gordon wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:49 pm Living in a top-of-catchment area, we've never had a Watch & Act for flooding before. Just went for a drive and all roads out of our place are impassable due to floodwater. (Now up to 95mm.)

That is crazy. There is a cluster of 100 to 200mm falls between Ballarat and Creswick. One fall over 200mm which looks like a bit of an outlier, but might be correct

Warm and humid down here. Waiting for the upslide to drift south which will start overnight.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:53 pm

hillybilly wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:16 pm
Gordon wrote: ↑Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:49 pm Living in a top-of-catchment area, we've never had a Watch & Act for flooding before. Just went for a drive and all roads out of our place are impassable due to floodwater. (Now up to 95mm.)
That is crazy. There is a cluster of 100 to 200mm falls between Ballarat and Creswick. One fall over 200mm which looks like a bit of an outlier, but might be correct

Warm and humid down here. Waiting for the upslide to drift south which will start overnight.

Could well be, never seen rain like it here. Extremely heavy and just would not budge.

It's eased off for now but we've measured 101.5mm so far. In our 25 years here, not sure if we've had triple figures in a day before - will have to go back and check.

I've certainly never seen flooding like it locally. One my wife's poor friends in Gordon's Main St was very scared as water poured into her house, and she's on quite a slope and well away from any watercourse. It was simply the sheer volume of water running down the road and spilling over the sides

.

More thunder as I type and the rain has restarted. That'll do for us - happy for someone else to take it now!

Edit - torrential again, can't believe it

.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:08 pm

Pic of one of the cut roads near our place a few hours ago. This morning, you could have dammed this creek with your boot. Now it could swallow a car without trace. Total up to 114.5mm.

Post by **93ben** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:56 pm

Yeah its been an interesting day. No rain in sight. Not that confident for the next couple of days now. I guess I will believe it when I see it.

phunkster · Post by **phunkster** » Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:18 pm

Constant thunder, the occasional flang, rain alternating between heavy and torrential and even some hail between 6pm-9pm here in Werribee. Finished up with 36.9mm which is the highest daily total since I setup the gauge at the start of 2020, many reports of flash flooding in the area but nothing compared to Ballarat and surrounds. Radar was fun to watch during the action too, just kept building and building almost directly overhead (just SW of the Werribee dot on BOM radar) - https://theweatherchaser.com/radar/IDR0 ... FMelbourne

Fingers crossed for some more action tomorrow and hopefully those near stationary dumpers get some steering

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Vic - potential rain in the east from an inland low 5-8/1/22

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Re: Vic - potential rain in the east from an inland low 5-8/1/22