Strong Cold Front & Low: 7th - 10th June

[snowfall]

Beautiful sunrise pic HB.

2mm here overnight. Looking interesting for next week, although EC has downgraded quite a lot in its latest run (focusing the big falls out east) while ACCESS has gone crazy for central areas. EC will probably come back a bit but it shows that there is a fair amount of uncertainty with the track of the low. Still looking good overall, but we’ll need to wait a few more days to get a better sense of the details and how wet it might actually be.

[Gordon]

13mm overnight. Quite a surprise.

Good to see! 6mm here was more than I was expecting and some places nearby cracked 10mm.

BOM now saying anywhere from 28 to 80mm here next week...

[Sean]

Beautiful sunrise pic HB.

2mm here overnight. Looking interesting for next week, although EC has downgraded quite a lot in its latest run (focusing the big falls out east) while ACCESS has gone crazy for central areas. EC will probably come back a bit but it shows that there is a fair amount of uncertainty with the track of the low. Still looking good overall, but we’ll need to wait a few more days to get a better sense of the details and how wet it might actually be.

I knew EC was going to do this... It's gone from gangbusters to just bust in half a day

[hillybilly]

Mild 12C here today with sunshine. Swly about to push in for tomorrow so a cooler showery day.

Progs all showing something big next week but can’t settle on details. Could be flooding rain for Gippsland, huge snowfalls in the alps, gales in Bass Strait, snow right into Queensland or not

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Loving what I’m reading.
Fun week ahead..

[Tassiedave]

This morning's models seem to move the LOW north and east with Tassie missing the action after Tuesday.

[hillybilly]

Showery and foggy morning with nearly 4mm in the gauge. Looks like a wet day head.

Progs holding for next week. EC has wiggled back west so now has biggest falls in west central. Snowfalls should drop to around 700mm on Tuesday and Thursday so a bit too warm here, but Trentham and Macedon could do well.

[hillybilly]

Just scored a cracking coldie. Torrential rain, small hail and a sharp drop in temperature. Just dipped to 6C

Looks to be clearing up after this lot.

[Mike]

GFS 12z looks like EC 00z , quite the model dance.

Hopefully by Sunday 00z its a bit clearer. Some mizzly "showers" here this morning and temp around 7.5, did poke over 8 before the mizzly stuff started.

[Wilko]

Most models in broad agreement
EC, GFS, Gem has 40 - 60mm plus over big areas of Vic
Access G has a tight low smashing Gippy with 400mm
The devil will be in the detail but something is a Brewing !

[admin]

@hillybilly Love your sunrise photo. Love seeing your photos of Ferny Creek

[Mike]

Just 0.4mm this morning, managed a lunchtime high at 1245 of 9.7c then partly cloudy pretty pleasant arvo mostly around 8-9, currently back to 7.8c with lowering DPs and feeling like a cold night might be instore.

[Gordon]

2mm to 9am here, and a mm since.

Our BOM rainfall forecast for the dates has reduced a little; range is now 22mm - 60mm (vs 28mm - 80mm yesterday).

[Petros]

I also love the FC photos HB.

For next weeks event, it looks certain that a low is going to cut-off over somewhere in SE Aus. Given that every model disagrees with each other to an extent that I reckon I've never seen before, So I'll refrain from any comment on what may or may not, be delivered next week.

For the rest of winter, it's going to be a cold one imo (which only echo's what most here have already stated).

[stevco123]

My take on it with these setups is that it's the type where a random pool of cold air gets slingshot into central NSW or southern QLD and it snows in some place that hasn't seen snow in 50 years.

Meanwhile in Victoria all we get is 10 to 30mm of rain and snow in the usual alpine regions.

[hillybilly]

Wintery max of 6.7C here today. Just on 11mm in total (4mm to 9am, and rest after). Got brief hail a couple of times.

Next week looks good, though details will matter lot. Big snowfall event for the ranges.

[snowfall]

A brief max of 10.5c here today, with most of the day around 8-9c. Currently 4.5c, so a chilly evening. We had 0.8mm overnight.

Still waiting for the models to settle, probably another couple of days at least. Or it might be one of those times when it’s not clear until the day itself!

[Didjman]

Currently 3C here. Watching things unfolding ahead with interest - keeping an outside ear / eye to local wildlife.

[StratoBendigo]

Some strange outputs from some of the forecast models. 00z EC looks great, until I noticed it had snow falling on Cohuna on Thursday... Ummmm, ok.

GFS on the other hand is rather 'meh'.

[Sean]

Models are progressively less interesting, but something’s going to happen at least.

No doubt Melbourne’s east/southeast will miss out on the best action. It seems like every single low dumps out west or over Gippsland these days (after showing us to do well when first appearing in the models )