Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

[StratoBendigo]

Haha - looked at 06z GFS. Consistently has just 12mm here in two consecutive runs. I have zero confidence in any more rain beyond that, even if EC says 60mm and UKMET 100mm.

[Sean]

EC and GFS both seem to have upgraded (pretty much a statewide, all day, all night affair according to EC).

Storms look patchy (less so in the west), which is generally the case when imbedded, but both models are showing heavy rain here and there (metro inclusive).

Even if I don't get my storm, I'll be happy if fire season is given another punch in the gut.


*tries to remain positive*

[stevco123]

Sustained speeds of 35 to 50kmh here. Gust of 62kmh on the Davis, 71kmh on the portable Kestrel on the hill across the road

[snowfall]

Interesting to read about the wild winds out east. There has barely been a breath of wind here this evening. Definitely appears to be an upgrade on a few of the models, including EC and GFS. Whether that holds in the next runs, I guess we’ll see. In the end, I tend to think it will be a little patchy overall depending on convection and timing, so a degree of luck will be involved when it comes to the heavier rain. But at least we have a system with potential on our doorstep! Will be interesting to see what emerges on the radar tomorrow night.

[hillybilly]

Progs wiggling but looking good. Currently looks like peaking to the west of Melbourne and north central. Bendigo could go from dust to (minor?) flood if the progs verify. Guess we will see.

Showers and storms today, mainly north and west, it may sneak further east. Potential for an intense low early next week. EC has a system dipping below 980hPa.

[Hawker]

SWW out and a brown rot warning
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml
Might get some rain!!!!

[StratoBendigo]

I'm still not convinced. No sign of rain here yet.

It is humid and overcast, but a very high cloud base. It's going to take a long time to get going.

20mm is the upper end of my prediction.

[chasersaddict76]

Thundry in North and clear slot in West and Raincast update is the Grampians and near Horsham getting 50mm to 70mm and East mountains 50mm

Anyway the answer is wait for thundry cells to pop up thats the area go get.

I always think Northren Country is loophole dust bowl.

[Hawker]

I'm still not convinced. No sign of rain here yet.

It is humid and overcast, but a very high cloud base. It's going to take a long time to get going.

20mm is the upper end of my prediction.

Rain to north now Strato Seems to be a slow moving system, give it a chance to get going.

[Gordon]

Thanks for the detailed reply earlier hillybilly - useful insights.

Good to see Strato in the bullseye of the SWW... though I recall the same scenario earlier in the month, so I get the scepticism! A least models and BOM are still onboard even as the first rain of the system appears on the radar.

[Mike]

Hi all, always a little dubious here when the wind is south of east. Will need a bit more of a dip in surface trough to flip it around. Having said that, expected to wake up to cirro and alto stratus fest but pleasantly surprised to see lots of lift/instability in the sky below that deck. That's always encouraging.

As others have said, could get anything between 5 and 105mm between now and Saturday morning but will be disappointed with less than 15-20mm and thrilled with more.

[chasersaddict76]

Its raining in Bendigo and that clear slot in West is terrible will dry up later.

[Didjman]

2300Z sounding at Melbourne airport shows moisture increasing through most levels - except a stubborn dry slot between 15000 - 18000 ft. PW=39.9mm. TT 51, LI -0.7C

[Wilko]

Gee the waters surrounding Aus are super heated currently especially off NSW
La Niña in full swing
Interesting period coming up indeed with massive moisture streaming in
Now radar watching time

[StratoBendigo]

2mm thus far. Just light rain.

Big LOL at Access-C for tomorrow. 150mm

[Gordon]

Could be partly what's behind the floodwatch for the north-central desert?

[Mike]

3 drops here as stuff forms around but manages to miss us. Good news is the wind has gone north of east, also warmed with sun trying to poke out. 00z ACC C has gone crazy. Will be interesting to see what satellite and radar look like at 11pm tonight.

[chasersaddict76]

Thundstorms likey delelopment in West and North West failed by this model chart by 2pm

But i think it will late in afternoon...

[Didjman]

1mm of light rain here to open our account.

[stevco123]

Looks like a NSW event. It's obvious by looking at the development.

Even that lot in northern Victoria has developed too early and is heading east