Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Archived topics from the General Weather Discussion board.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4986
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by hillybilly »

23mm in the gauge in FC (or 24mm rounded counting the fog the other day). Always good to get an inch in January so no complaints. Was hoping for a minimum of 30mm which we should get now with showers still to come.

A rather impressive 35mm down at Walkerville. Still raining down there, so may well nudge a welcome 40mm. Was drying out quickly along that coast, so good to give things a soaking.

Bit of a bummer that this system has been so patchy. 10-20km often making the difference between a dribble and a deluge :(

This system isn’t done with us yet, though picking details and being confident is a mugs game. The winds are becoming light westerly through central with the change proper still further west. There should be further showers and storms fire over west central as the day goes on, and move over central and perhaps north central during the arvo. No guarantees, as we’ve seen this is a very subtle and complex system. But would expect some to be heavy.

Monday then brings a trough in the easterlies which gets thrown northwest into central and north central. More showers, possibly tending to rain.
J
James
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by James »

so much for the forecasted "storm likely" overnight...there was nothing.

Whilst the rain was welcome, I haven't heard anything other than a few rumbles in the distance yesterday.

I don't hold hopes for today either, but would be happy to be pleasantly surprised.
H
Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Hawker »

Only had a few mm's here was hoping for a bit more, but didn't have great expectations.
Doesn't really look that likely today but bom have put out a brown rot warning for expected rain???????
User avatar
chasersaddict76
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:36 pm
Location: Bendigo

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by chasersaddict76 »

I only had 4mm for Kangaroo Flat VIC.

I think thunderstorms will blow up somewhere from SW to East all along divded ranges Victoria later as trough axis sits in off Bass Strait waters
User avatar
Didjman
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2099
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Didjman »

I am not writing this off yet!! Extremely tropical here with the sun now out! 23/19 :o Some seriously chunky congestus going up to my west!!
A
Andy
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 126
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 2:02 pm
Location: Geelong Vic

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Andy »

Very warm out here now in the sun. Convection starting to really get going around the Geelong area. Something currently between Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula was very impressive to watch and I can see its now showing up on radar too. See what happens like everyone else :-) Good read from all of you. Have a great afternoon.
User avatar
chasersaddict76
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:36 pm
Location: Bendigo

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by chasersaddict76 »

Bendigo is 28c very good recipe and there no action yet wait jet stream from West move in shft wind shear.
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2936
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by stevco123 »

Epic development to my south and especially south west. I did write it off earlier, but i still hold hope
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
H
Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Hawker »

LOL, never looked like it
"The Brown Rot Advice for the Northern Country and North Central forecast districts has been cancelled."
J
James
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by James »

nothing but blue skys with a little bit of cloud. not looking convective to me..i don't hold out hope for anything today
w
weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 244
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Box Hill

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by weathergasm »

Here in Box Hill I’m not seeing anything to get excited about. We got some lovely rain yesterday but it wasn’t anywhere near as stormy an event for my area as I’d hoped.

On to the next one...
S
Sean
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1000
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Sean »

There is a line of cells popping up between Elaine and Geelong, which might build into a line of thunderstorms. Look like there's an E/NE focus to them, so may miss here if it does develop.

Very warm, steamy and sunny, so good conditions.
J
James
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by James »

sunday was supposed to be our day! :D
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2809
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by StratoBendigo »

Not a chance of anything now. Rainbow radar remains clear. Biggest fizzer here for a very long time. In fact I can't see anything here for several weeks. A very boring summer.
S
Sean
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1000
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Sean »

....and another cell lost to Port Phillip bay. Welp
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4986
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by hillybilly »

Scored one booming rumble this morning on the back end of the heavier rain. That makes 3 thunder days for 2021 3 days in. Not out of the question that we could get a rumble tomorrow as well with the upper trough parked just to the west of central.

This arvo was a bit disappointing. One cell went up near here but failed to register, so stuck one 25mm for the event so far. In contrast, Walkerville got a ripper storm. 22mm in about 20 minutes this arvo, and 65mm for the day at our place down there. Like most summer troughs this one has been very hit and miss, and unfortunately most here live where it has been a bit of a miss :(

A secondary low is going to form just south of Melbourne tomorrow, which will give a burst of showers and drizzle that could well tend to rain. Expecting it could add up quite well along the southern side of the divide. These events often spill over the divide, though the focus is usually quite narrow.
w
wobbie
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 149
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:45 pm
Location: Knox

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by wobbie »

At least it's not stinking hot and bone dry
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2936
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by stevco123 »

wobbie wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:49 pm At least it's not stinking hot and bone dry
Now that's the comment of the year haha.

If there are any fails so far this summer, is that summer itself is a fail. Very average
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
w
weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 244
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Box Hill

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by weathergasm »

wobbie wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:49 pm At least it's not stinking hot and bone dry
I’m with you, I’ll take a summer of slightly disappointing events over a summer of open furnaces any day

In any case the storm season still has at least another three months in it so I’m not too depressed yet😆
W
Wilko
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1492
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Wilko »

A big fail from Bom on this one for me :(
7mm ho hum
It will probably rain cats and dogs tomorrow now that BOM are going for only 5mm
Locked