James wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:30 pm
at this stage i am pretty over the forecasts and planning ahead according to them, so far it really hasn't happened each time as forecast, its much more accurate to just take it as it comes, most of the time it doesn't seem to!
Complaining doesn’t change anything either. Melbourne has a temperate oceanic climate pretty far removed from the tropical moisture which fuels thunderstorms. This means a lot of things need to line up pretty precisely for a ‘chance of a thunderstorm’ in the forecast to turn into an actual thunderstorm. If you want reliable storms, move to Darwin
The Melbourne metropolitan area gets maybe five or six good thunderstorm days a year (ie, more than just a thundery shower over the foothills or an occasionally rumbling rainband). If we’re really lucky in a particular year and all the climate drivers line up, maybe double that. And bear in mind that even on the very good days where there’s multiple black-cored cells all over the radar not EVERYWHERE in Melbourne is going to get affected, both due to the localised nature of thunderstorms and Melbourne’s climatology. If you’re east or north of the city, your chances are better than if you’re in the south or west. Once you understand and accept this, you’ll be a happier person.
Good storms are not common here, which is part of what makes the active days so special and worth waiting for.