Have to say, I don't trust the models for this period one bit - not for detail anyway. Some sort of consistency around Sunday's trough/rainband, but beyond that, it's chaos. EC has had 50mm falls for us appear, vanish, move a few days... ACCESS & GFS not much better.StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:10 am Next week looks a bit messy. Everything from 10 to 60mm is being bandied around...
I think that's correct, from my novice reading of the charts, the upper parts
EC meteogram is showing storms. Main system will be a rainband behind the surface change, but it does look like central/north central and east should see some thunderies. The low level moisture isn’t great around 1-2km so they will be quite elevated.
Yeah, I noticed GEM in particular has been very bullish on rainfall totals. EC and GFS are a little more consistent, both projecting around 40-60mm in your area by the end of the week and similar here. ACCESS seems to be the odd one out at the moment. But models will no doubt go through more chopping and changing. Sunday/Monday is fairly consistent between EC and GFS in the latest runs, while UKMO is projecting somewhat less rainfall overall. The highest totals will be in southern areas for this part as the airflow swings south/south-westerly, but a different story later in the week.StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:22 am Even more divergence today in the models. 10 or 100mm next week, and everything in between...