Cold outbreak 3 August - ?

[StratoBendigo]

GFS and EC are hinting that we might be in luck on Friday-Saturday with precipitation from the Inland Low drifting across...

We need it!

[Sean]

GFS showing pockets of snow just north of the CBD and in Geelong Tue evening. GFS is a bit of an outlier right now, so I'd take that with a grain of salt.

Is looking a bit moisture starved, which is annoying, but we never get both at the same time (i.e. cold air/moisture). It's either one or the other.

[Gordon]

I don't recall seeing snow maps from MetEye for our area like the ones they've put up tonight for Tuesday: the area is huge, and from 1am until 1 am .

Still, in the past, a lot of snow forecasts for us have greatly overestimated or underestimated - so we'll wait and see!

[hillybilly]

Progs probably tweaked a bit better overnight. Tuesday morning will be the coldest with 850T dropping to around -6C at its lowest. That is close to the Melbourne record, though the records are based on radiosonde which typically fly once or twice a day, so quite probably we’ve had lower values in the historical period. The main concern is moisture. The system does have showers, but they will definitely focus near the coast. They spread inland on Tuesday but the airmass becomes milder. Still cold but, but not snow to sea level cold.

Expecting solid falls in the Otways, South Gippsland and lesser falls in the central ranges and Dandneongs. Should get a light cover here, but then expect it to turn to sleet or rain as the day goes on. Could surprise with a few cms, or disappoint with only a flake or two. These events really show why the trend matters, as take 1 or 2C off the 850Ts and it would snow all day up here

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Progs probably tweaked a bit better overnight. Tuesday morning will be the coldest with 850T dropping to around -6C at its lowest. That is close to the Melbourne record, though the records are based on radiosonde which typically fly once or twice a day, so quite probably we’ve had lower values in the historical period. The main concern is moisture. The system does have showers, but they will definitely focus near the coast. They spread inland on Tuesday but the airmass becomes milder. Still cold but, but not snow to sea level cold.

Expecting solid falls in the Otways, South Gippsland and lesser falls in the central ranges and Dandneongs. Should get a light cover here, but then expect it to turn to sleet or rain as the day goes on. Could surprise with a few cms, or disappoint with only a flake or two. These events really show why the trend matters, as take 1 or 2C off the 850Ts and it would snow all day up here

Hmmm, the problem is Maximum temperatures nearly always too high for it to snow all day in the hills when low level snow is forecasted. You need temps of at least below 3c, under 2c would be better and precipitation at the same time.

Usually when an alpine area gets 5c - 6c max temp, they are going to be expecting a bit of rain.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

But I think we could all do with a bit of snow on our properties at the moment.

On another note it is pretty unfortunate that East Warburton is included in the Melbourne lockdown area. But it will be interesting to see how low the snowline gets on in those mountains.

[Didjman]

Satpic looking VERY impressive with the "Southerly Buster" coming up past Tas!

[Derwent]

Just drizzle overnight and a very light smattering of snow on Mt Wellington this am in Hobart.
Sun has fully broken through now and it's fine as can be. Although breeze has picked up a little. Guess I'll wait and see what really happens.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Just drizzle overnight and a very light smattering of snow on Mt Wellington this am in Hobart.
Sun has fully broken through now and it's fine as can be. Although breeze has picked up a little. Guess I'll wait and see what really happens.

I heard on the ABC earlier that snow is expected down to 100m in Tasmania and possible snow flurries at sea level. Sounds like its going to be Snowmania tomorrow for you guys.

[Didjman]

Melbourne fcast for tomorrow has "Snow falling above 400 metres". At 330m, I might be a chance - fingers crossed.

[hillybilly]

Models have gone colder on the latest run. How often does that happen??? More usual for them to wind back as you get closer...

EC now has a large area with the snow line sub 400m. It drops to locally 250m. GFS is even colder, and would put snow down to sea level if showers are around. GFS and EC both have 850Ts dipping below -6C locally. The Melbourne record is -6.3C from 1986 so this is a historically significant event. Only question is around precip, though the cold air comes through with an active and amplifying front so expect lots of showers during the day,

Thinking we should see a few cms here. Might have to save my one hour of exercise for a ski in the snow if it verifies We’ve got a good toboggan run in the garden that works with just a couple of cm of snow so have those fingers crossed

[stevco123]

Models have gone colder on the latest run. How often does that happen??? More usual for them to wind back as you get closer...

EC now has a large area with the snow line sub 400m. It drops to locally 250m. GFS is even colder, and would put snow down to sea level if showers are around. GFS and EC both have 850Ts dipping below -6C locally. The Melbourne record is -6.3C from 1986 so this is a historically significant event. Only question is around precip, though the cold air comes through with an active and amplifying front so expect lots of showers during the day,

Thinking we should see a few cms here. Might have to save my one hour of exercise for a ski in the snow if it verifies We’ve got a good toboggan run in the garden that works with just a couple of cm of snow so have those fingers crossed

Now what is your prediction and confidence for snow in sea level suburbs??

[snowfall]

Light rain here currently. 0.2mm and 6.8c. Reckon it will be a borderline situation here, both in terms of temps and any showers occurring when it’s cold enough. Would love to be surprised though! Areas a bit higher up in the central ranges should be pretty well-placed (looking forward to reading your snow reports Gordon, and Macedonian if you’re around!) and it’s great in any case to be finally getting a decent cold outbreak this winter.

[hillybilly]

Models have gone colder on the latest run. How often does that happen??? More usual for them to wind back as you get closer...

EC now has a large area with the snow line sub 400m. It drops to locally 250m. GFS is even colder, and would put snow down to sea level if showers are around. GFS and EC both have 850Ts dipping below -6C locally. The Melbourne record is -6.3C from 1986 so this is a historically significant event. Only question is around precip, though the cold air comes through with an active and amplifying front so expect lots of showers during the day,

Thinking we should see a few cms here. Might have to save my one hour of exercise for a ski in the snow if it verifies We’ve got a good toboggan run in the garden that works with just a couple of cm of snow so have those fingers crossed

Now what is your prediction and confidence for snow in sea level suburbs??

Comes down to the timing of the showers. If you take EC and GFS literally most suburbs south and east of the city are a good chance. Would think higher spots like Burwood East, Mitcham, Ringwood North, Wheelers Hill have to be in with a very good chance. Dandenongs about 100%. The concern in central is always whether we are rainshadowed. Otways etc should get a notable low level fall.

[stevco123]

I find that these cold fronts always come though overnight for some reason, then it is a sunny morning until 1pm, and then showers come through. So annoying

[Gordon]

Down to 3C here with a stream of drizzly showers tracking south-east...

Looks like the showers with the very cold air are just coming up on the south-west coast - Mortlake 2.9C! (130m asl)

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Down to 3C here with a stream of drizzly showers tracking south-east...

Looks like the showers with the very cold air are just coming up on the south-west coast - Mortlake 2.9C! (130m asl)

Sounds like there is hope that it could snow here in East Warby.

BOM's Meteye nearly has the whole of Tasmania covered now for 10am tomorrow morning.

@hillybilly which sites do you use to find the forecasted snow line?

[Rivergirl]

Really looking forward to this. 1986 was the last great snowfall we had in Ferny Creek

[Australis(Shell3155)]

I would have thought it was spring..
been mowing and gardening..
very odd.. but I'm ready
Zig Zag up to the the tower..

[Sean]

Definite chill in the air now, and not the high pressure, light winds kind of chill, but cold air from Antarctica kind of chill.

Not confident re. flurries at my place, but will enjoy the cold weather and showers since I’m at home all day.

GFS isn’t really backing off and EC is falling more in line, so we shall see what happens tomorrow, especially for those of you with some altitude.