Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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hillybilly
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:18 am

Progs wiggling a bit, so details not set, but broad pattern looks pretty good next two days. Trough over northern Vic and NSW starts to deepen today. Showers in the northeast perhaps spreading a little further west. Trough deepens further tomorrow with a low forming not far from Melbourne and deepening in Bass Strait. Widespread showers and storms, favouring central and eastern parts. Lots of showers and potential for a weak wrap around rainband through to middle of Wednesday. Warm and sticky today, milder and humid tomorrow.

Looking at temps has been an unremarkable month. Max temps are almost on average, give or take.Max temps about average, perhaps a bit below. Nights above average, typically by a degree or two. Couple of cooler ones coming up second half of this week then hotter next week. Gut feel is that it will be another above average February for Vic, landing somewhere around 0.5C above average. The odd thing is how tropical it’s been. Non stop sticky easterlies. Feels more like NSW than Victoria.
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Didjman
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:45 am

There was Castellanus overhead Tulla at sunrise.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:19 am

I'm not expecting much here this week. We didn't get much last week either (just 4 mm).

So while our part of town has done OK this month (58 mm MTD), the airport AWS is on 18 mm which is below average for Feb.
Sean
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:11 pm

It’s not looking particularly warm tomorrow and may be fairly cloudy. Won’t hold my breath when it comes to storms.

Seems more like patchy rain band with some pockets of thunder type conditions.
tonycynic
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:50 pm

Any ideas when we will be getting the rain? I have to spread 5 tonne of dry sand sometime tomorrow in Berwick.
Tassiedave
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:05 pm

Tas temps today: Launceston 24.4, Cressy 23.2, Scottsdale 22.0, Grove 21.4, Devonport 20.4, Hobart 19.1
Launceston forecast is for 15-30 mm of rain tomorrow. The last time Launceston had 30 mm of rain was February 12th 2019.
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Didjman
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:20 pm

tonycynic wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:50 pm
Any ideas when we will be getting the rain? I have to spread 5 tonne of dry sand sometime tomorrow in Berwick.
The BoM are forecasting storms from mid to late morning.
weathergasm
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:01 pm

They’re actually forecasting storms from “early” morning (tending severe towards the afternoon), so to my mind that means we should start seeing development of showers any time between 12-6am👌
snowfall
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:30 pm

Another humid day today and a max of 25.3c. Lovely sunny day though. Currently a clear sky and absolutely no wind, and 18c. Not sure how we’ll fare here tomorrow, as I think there may be a bit of rain shadowing but we’ll see how it goes.
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hillybilly
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:21 am

Another warm humid one yesterday (24C) and today will be... warm and humid. This looks like a doozie of a system, though northern areas won’t see so much as the tropical infeed is tending to come in more from the west than north. Storms will explode through west central areas/north central from late morning and looks like a very stormy arvo into the evening further east. Precip water values are healthy around 40mm and instability is deep and widespread. Expecting this one to start as mid isolated storms which quickly merge into thundery rain.

A deep low then forms in western Bass Strait and puts a wrap around / swly bands into east central and west Gippsland. Heavy falls showing up across most models through the Yarra Ranges to around the Prom. EC, CMC and UK are showing falls locally north of 100mm so could be some local flooding issue :?: if that verifies.
Gordon
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:29 am

2mm from a shower overnight and a very noisy storm is passing just to our south. Unusual to have storms at daybreak; quite Sydney-like!
WeatherViewer
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:59 am

Constant distant Thunder for the last half hour here in Tarneit!
Skywalker
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:21 am

WeatherViewer wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:59 am
Constant distant Thunder for the last half hour here in Tarneit!
Saw several massive bolts from that cell while driving to work. Looks like another one is about to hit home.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Dane
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:04 am

Thunder rumbling around here between 0645 and 0710.
2mm's in the gauge at 9am - 1.4mm's at the Airport.
Hoping to get a bit more during the day.
Humid currently 19/17c
Adam38
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:04 am

I woke to the sound of Kookaburras, Magpies and booming thunder this morning, beautiful!
Wilko
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:35 am

Nice cell just hit Moorabbin
3mm here in 5 mins
Skywalker
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:28 am

Things are really starting to fire out west, buckle up everyone. :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Gordon
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:09 pm

Probably our heaviest rain rate of the year in the latest deluge; judging by my very scientific measure of 'gutter overflow rate' :). I'll check the gauge when the lightning dies down. (Edit: 8.5mm so 10.5mm for the day.)

Seriously, extraordinarily heavy rain that would soon cause flash flooding if you got caught under a train of storms for more than a few minutes.
Last edited by Gordon on Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dane
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:10 pm

More Thunderstorms here between 11.30am and 12.30pm.
Another 8mm's here with 5mm's in 8 minutes at one stage.
BTW 7 Thunderdays so far this year.
Looks like its mostly cleared now judging by the radar.
James
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:13 pm

very localised it seems just spitting rain here and one or two distant rumbles...
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