VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020

[Tassiedave]

Hobart nearly 30 degrees at 10.30 pm. Amazing!!

[wobbie]

1mm on the board so far, looking pretty good for the west at this point

[James]

lightning seems to have all died, its very rare we have lightning at night these days!

[Jake Smethurst]

Severe weather warning now current for parts of western and central Victoria. Can't say I've seen the "intense rainfall" or "dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding" tags many times before.

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Central, South West, North Central, Wimmera and parts of West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:47 pm Friday, 31 January 2020.

A very hot and extremely humid north to northwesterly airstream ahead a cool change moving through the State during Saturday.

INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding may develop over the western part of the warning area during tonight before extending eastwards on Saturday.

General rainfall totals of between 20mm and 40mm are expected with isolated falls to around 80mm possible.

Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.

[Sean]

Incredible incursion of tropical moisture marching through SE oz right now. Precip values are almost topping the charts from Cape York to Tas.

[wolfcat]

Some nice totals starting to build

[stevco123]

Looking like a mostly fine day today, until about mid afternoon when there is the chance of some showers or storms.

Not very excited yet for down here.

[hillybilly]

Record humidity over Adelaide last night with a precipitable water value of 66mm. Is Melbournes turn today. Should be around 65mm just before noon. The record is 64.7mm back in 2011 and from memory there is nothing north of 60mm before that event. Peak values rise by about 8% for each degree warmer the oceans get, so about 10% of this value is a simple result that our oceans are hotter now. “Good news” for those who like storms, bad news if you are trying to sleep or flood prone. The dew point record for Melbourne is 24.0C and Victoria is 26.0C back in that December 2016 event. I’d be surprised if they don’t both fall today.

Nice upgrade across the models with EC, UK, GFS and CMC now all showing lots for central areas. Will be a bit thundery, but expecting this will broaden into rain so everywhere should get a decent drink. EC which I find is excellent has the first sparks around central just before 11am and then scattered activity well into the evening. The surface trough is now on the southwest coast so we should see the rainband creep east.

1.4mm here overnight, so Feb off to a start. Best in the state so far is Nhill with 58mm. Suspect a few spots will be near the ton by 9am

So many wierd records being set atm. Yesterday Melbourne saw a combination T/Td of 40C and 19C. That’s the first time we’ve had a dew point north of 18C with a temperature above 38C...

[StratoBendigo]

No rain here yet. Perhaps a couple of mm this afternoon. We've missed everything in the past month. Let's add a fourth failure in a row.

[Hawker]

We were always borderline here Strato going by the models, just the way It happens, our time will come.
I don't know what to expect today.
By the way has it been noticed before that there is a link up for the new radar at Rainbow,( Mildura and Mnt gambier radars).
Meant to be operational by April

[wolfcat]

Some really useful totals for part of Victoria over night.

[Horts]

Nothing down here yet, just went for a dip in the bay. Awesome morning. Nice and humid.

Surprised though, thought it would be raining by now?

[snowfall]

3.4mm here so far, mostly from a couple of heavy showers yesterday afternoon and evening. Currently 25.7c and DP 20.9c, so there's plenty of moisture in the air! The DP down at Geelong is 24.4c, so it's getting up there.

[Jake Smethurst]

Should see showers or rain develop late this morning and into the afternoon for central parts including Melbourne, including risk of storms. Not everybody will see the heavy falls though.

Here's what EC thinks for today, but any convective activity will result in higher falls. EC animation at 1hr intervals for today.

[Didjman]

.... with the tropopause at levels usually only seen in the deep tropics. I’ve only seen this once before in the January 2011 event.

On the 1700Z sounding yesterday for Melbourne, it was at 50,000ft!

[stevco123]

A quick 5mm from that blob. Doesn't look promising on radar behind it, although the ridiculously humid air and an incoming trough makes ne confident we'll pull another 5mm from it

[stevco123]

Tropical downpours from time to time now. Looks to be back building too

[StratoBendigo]

Still nothing. All too South of here. Fail.

[weathergasm]

If I had to guess at this stage, I’d be surprised if Melbourne got to 10mm today. The cold front is knocking on the city’s door right now and it’s hard to see how once the front passes much rain will will eventuate.

[Didjman]

Not looking great here either atm. 0.4mm so far for the event.

2300z sounding has TT 42, PW 60.4mm, Li -1.4. There is an inversion between 4000ft & 5000ft. Above that, the atmosphere looks to be saturated to 22000ft.