Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

[stevco123]

Fail for here

[Supercellimpact]

And the grand total today - 5mm. Another fail.

Very localised, 20mm at my place, 29mm at the airport, 41mm at a friends place in Kennington.

[93ben]

Been raining constantly here from the late afternoon into the evening here in Templestowe. I was working in Camberwell/Glen Iris today and wow. So many trees were shreaded of their leaves! I'm a gardener so I had to clean up this mess!

[Gordon]

Well, one of the bigger misses I can remember for our area. From about a week out, for yesterday and today combined, all models except GFS had us down for 50mm plus; we've ended up with about 2mm and the same applies for a pretty big radius around us; you had to go to west to Ballarat Airport and beyond, or east to Bacchus Marsh and beyond, to get a half decent total.

Even WATL at 7.45pm tonight had us down for 15-25mm!



A reminder of the fallibility of models and forecasts, which I was probably overdue for! I won't be draining my water tanks in anticipation of a rain event again... I'm morbidly fascinated by what went wrong - and I have new respect for GFS. My much-loved EC was particularly hopeless; calling 60mm plus for us as late as yesterday afternoon!

Really delighted with the rain over eastern Vic though; a lot of farmer friends and acquaintances are very happy and the fires are mostly looking very sick. There is no doubt the east needed it much more than we did.

[Macedonian]

We missed out on the big forecast totals as well, Gordon. We did get 16mm which is great and takes the YTD to about 70 or so mm.
Last year we had to wait til tge end of April to be able to say that so i'm mote than happy.

[snowfall]

Yes, a lot of variation, with high falls accumulating under relatively narrow streams of rain or showers while leaving nearby areas with quite a bit less. For us, EC was more accurate than GFS for projected rainfall.

So far, 25mm here for today and a little less than 3mm yesterday. That brings us up to 115mm MTD.

Might be a little more drizzle overnight, but otherwise the event appears to be winding down here. Great total for the CBD, taking it well above the January average. Solid rain in many of the fire areas is even better news.

[Horts]

Huge fail for here also.

Sweet FA.

[Didjman]

13mm for the event for Wallan. Not expecting any more. Got a good sound recording of the continous rumbling crawlers on Sunday evening.

What are the storm chances tomorrow??

[hillybilly]

50.2mm in the gauge this morning. Event on 58mm. Very happy. Our YTD is near 130mm. The best of it was about 2-5km to my east with our local AWS scoring 73mm (plus 7mm) the best fall here since December 2017. Best fall I’ve spotted around the Dandenong's is 79mm (plus 12mm) in Olinda so just shy of the ton for the total.

Been a long time since we’ve had that much rain in January Local data is a bit patchy but appears we haven’t had a January fall this large since before 1990.

The city’s 44.0mm is the best fall since February 5 2011 (82.4mm).

All fantastic stuff. Much of the state has done very well though sadly has split around parts of west central into north central, and also missed some of the coastal strip. Was never an event for the far west, which rarely gets rain in mid summer owing to the orientation of the coast/ranges, cold water offshore etc. Top score at Mt Moornapa with 139mm (24mm day before), awesome stuff for an area which has been in drought for ages.

[Onetahuti]

11.2mm for the event here, most of which was late yesterday afternoon/evening. Tank overflowing, with more rain forecast this week it will extend the time when garden watering will not be needed.
Happy.

[hillybilly]

Looking ahead, one more part to this event to come. Warm to hot tomorrow with temps approaching the mid 30s in the north with gusty winds. The odd storm though sparse ahead of a rainband which enters the state late in the day and moves through on Thursday. Looks like 10-25mm across southern and mountain areas, with less in the north. Doesn’t really look like a storm event, with more stratiform rain. Cool Friday then a nice weekend with plenty of sunshine. Hopefully this one can fill in the gaps a bit for those who have missed out.

The system is remarkably intense for January with pressures dropping towards 990hPa on Thursday. Could be a bit of a storm surge on the coast and large waves Beaches are in pretty poor shape, so more erosion

[flyfisher]

Finished on 58mm here which was a great result. Everything is greening up, not just the Dandenongs but right into the suburbs. Great to see.

[stevco123]

6.4mm all up yesterday. It was quite green down here all through the last 12 months or so, and with 40mm so far this month it should keep things green for a while it seems.

Amazing that only 15km to my north from Dandenong onwards, things were quite dry with brown grass etc. So this rain will help

[StratoBendigo]

6mm in the end. Not a great result. Just a few km west got zero. A few km East got 45mm and are on 60mm YTD. We're 15mm YTD.

Expecting perhaps 5mm on Thursday.

[weathergasm]

The arrival of the monsoon on the mainland a few weeks back really changed the game. Moisture availability shot up very quickly for large swathes of the country. Just goes to show the impact the delaying effect of the strong +IOD had - I’m glad it’s finally gone.

As with every storm event, some areas missed out. This is part of the deal unfortunately, particularly if the storms are coming into the city from the east/northeast and you’re in the west.

[StratoBendigo]

Rain has been very patchy. Extreme to Severe fire danger in Mallee and Nthn Country tomorrow and likely TFB. We're not out of trouble by a long shot.

[Tassiedave]

At last some decent rain forecast for Tassie on Thursday with 25-50 mm in some places. Hope the models hold up.

[Skywalker]

The rain finally started falling during the afternoon here yesterday. We got roughly 10-13mm at home (haven't checked the gauge yet).
All up that's at least 80mm (including last Wednesday's smashing).
Absolutely fantastic result for this area and long overdue.

[Adam38]

It is amazing how quickly the landscape greens up after some rain, the hills have a tinge of green around here today.

[StratoBendigo]

It is amazing how quickly the landscape greens up after some rain, the hills have a tinge of green around here today.

Still very brown around here. Total Fire Ban tomorrow too....