System for Sunday seems to be holding which is good
Trough approaching southwest Victoria later today with the associated upper trough amplifying. This system has tapped a good feed of tropical moisture from way back in the mid Indian Ocean so is unusual by recent standards in having some proper moisture to play with. Precipitable water values prefrontal are in the 30-40mm range which is very healthy
Sunday looks like having areas of rain through Bass Strait thickening and spreading north. The system is timed to come through central areas late afternoon which is ideal for arvo heating. It’s quite unstable, particularly northern areas where LI go well negative. There will be a fair bit of mid of mid level muck so thinking most convection will be of the embedded type.
Rainfall totals look healthy for most southern and mountain areas, with locally heavy falls through east central and nearby spot. Locally could see 40mm plus
Will be less in the northwest and Gippsland.
Be very welcome ahead of a more summery spell late next week.
Tomorrow’s system looks like eventually forming a trough or low on the NSW north coast. Could see some good rain in some of those areas currently suffering awful fires.