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Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.
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crikey
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey »

Didjman wrote: Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:48 pm The jet around the Polar "Vortex" is now anything BUT circular at 70Hpa!
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -95.15,488
Yes. 70hPa has lost symetry for sure.
Noting also, one side of the 10hPa polar vortex has reduced wind speed.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -95.15,488
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey »

JasmineStorm wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:39 am Goodness me.....over 100+ models across multiple agencies are now showing an extraordinary heat bomb developing over the polar region in the upper stratosphere at the end of August.
Look forward to your updates.
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman »

It appears to be coming together
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey »

Welcome to 'djon' from weatherchaser website.
There is a smorgasbord of radar and satellite images, as wel as other cool stuff
Check out this massive cold pool and front off the Sth coast of WA atm,. The neg' AAO continuing to do its magic with a strong meridonal wavy pattern in the westerly belt.
source
https://theweatherchaser.com/
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman »

I reckon our storm season is going to start with an almighty bang!!

The jet around the "Vortex" at 70 Hpa is becoming very ragged:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -89.25,488

WOW WOW WOW at these:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 30anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

And my saved progression (updated daily) of the Eddy Heat Flux Charts:
https://didjman59.wordpress.com/2019/08 ... nter-2019/

If the MJO should line up with the surface effects of the above....................
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman »

This morning we have finally have a vortex split with almost a third vortex between the two:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 86.65,3000
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm »

Main EC model goes KABOOM by 31 Aug. Full blown SSW @ 10 hPa over the South Pole.
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EC 10 hPa 3108.jpg
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman »

Considering the animated gifs I posted last night, I would be surprised if it didn't happen JS :o
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm »

At the moment I can't find a model that doesn't think it will not happen. Obviously the lower stratospheric polar vortex is currently under stress. The overall strength is now the main question but EC looks incredible at this stage.

On other driver topics - it's fair to say that almost all climate models did not pick the negative trend of Nino 3.4 in August :)
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman »

So is this pointing to possible La Nina??
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey »

Would l be right in saying that heat anomaly is starting to rotate around the pole again, or is it just going to shift position.I noticed the warm and cool blobs also almost disappeared for a few days. Either way lmguess it is a sign that there is 'movement at the station'
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey »

Didjman wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:15 am This morning we have finally have a vortex split with almost a third vortex between the two:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 86.65,3000
a picture for the archives
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey »

JasmineStorm wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:41 am Main EC model goes KABOOM by 31 Aug. Full blown SSW @ 10 hPa over the South Pole.
The color temp' variation certainly looks very impressive.
The 10hPa wind stream still looks very much in tact this morning.
Thanks for all the updates.
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm »

Didjman wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:12 am So is this pointing to possible La Nina??
Still very neutral in my opinion but its certainly getting interesting.
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm »

I'm seeing a +60 to +70c temperature anomalies on EC 00Z 22082019 in the upper stratosphere at the end of August over Antarctica. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls....I'm speechless. In the short term, this will have a global impact on weather patterns over many months if it comes off.
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman »

JasmineStorm wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:23 pm I'm seeing a +60 to +70c temperature anomalies on EC 00Z 22082019 in the upper stratosphere at the end of August over Antarctica. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls....I'm speechless. In the short term, this will have a global impact on weather patterns over many months if it comes off.
Those anomalies anywhere are insane! All we can do is watch it unfold atm. Talking of which:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -91.34,975

The polar vortices at 70hpa appear to be almost convulsing atm! In Crikeys capture in a post above, the left hand vortex is now so contorted to be almost dead, while the right hand vortex is stretched like an elastic band.
At 10 hpa:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -91.34,975
things look like an out of balance washing machine!
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm »

NZ climate scientists are now picking up the SSW event https://www.niwa.co.nz/news/rare-weathe ... n-possible
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey »

JasmineStorm wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:23 pm I'm seeing a +60 to +70c temperature anomalies on EC 00Z 22082019 in the upper stratosphere at the end of August over Antarctica. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls....I'm speechless. In the short term, this will have a global impact on weather patterns over many months if it comes off.
could you provide a link to those forecast anomalies. of +60 +70.
Would like to see that ..
I can see the temp' gradient you posted above for the 10hPa showing -78 on the cool side and - 8 on the warm side.
That gives a gradient hill of about 70deg c Is that what you are saying?
The geopotential height is extremely lop sided?
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman »

As I mentioned in a post here the other day, this could coincide with a projected strong MJO. What then........?
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

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