Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:57 pm

crikey wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:54 pm
Not sure about that stratoserve site 'JS'.
I've reconciled that site, all looks good comparing to NOAA. The guy is a genius and is followed by quite a few U.S Met hot shots now. You need to go through all the menu's several times to digest the content (SAM is in there as well). The 3D image is a structure view, not the above view that earthnullschool displays of the vortex seperation.

Over the polar region the positive temperature anomalies become effective after the start of the low stratospheric vortex disturbance in June. As a consequence, the tropopause is continuously lowered and has propagated an enormous shift in the surface temps of Antarctica.

Initial temp anomalies in the stratosphere https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Hasanitch » Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:27 pm

With the SAM going negative will probably start seeing some cut off lows in a week or 2. Interesting tweet thread by masiello today https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/ ... 9406605312

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by bd7 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:42 pm

good gear JS would like to see answers to Crickey questions too if possible tks

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by bd7 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:43 pm

ok answered I see

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by bd7 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:56 pm

BOMs take on it
Issued 9 July 2019

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.



Positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely to be dominant Australian climate influence

ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.


Current status: INACTIVE
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. While the possibility of El Niño can't be completely ruled out for 2019, the tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to remain in an ENSO-neutral phase over the coming months, meaning the ENSO Outlook remains at INACTIVE. Model outlooks indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia's weather for much of the rest of 2019, meaning an increased likelihood of a drier than average winter–spring.

Most indicators of ENSO are neutral. Tropical Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures remain slightly warmer than average, but in the neutral range. Atmospheric indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds, have been close to average, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the only ENSO indicator that has continued to hover close to El Niño thresholds.

Climate models indicate the tropical Pacific will maintain an ENSO-neutral state through the austral winter and spring.

While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been neutral in recent weeks, the broader Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and atmospheric patterns remain generally consistent with a positive IOD. This means the influence upon Australia is likely to remain.

Climate models forecast positive IOD conditions for the remainder of the austral winter and spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter–spring rainfall, above average temperatures, and an earlier start to the fire season for southern and central Australia.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Jake Smethurst » Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:21 pm

crikey wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:05 pm
I wish there was a 'like button' on this forum 'Jake' . Can you arrange that for your next upgrade. I would like to 'like' The above 'JS' post cos l love the graphics.
Will look into it for the next update. :)

Btw, great discussion!
Jake - Site Owner & Admin/Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
http://www.jakesmethurst1.wordpress.com

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:17 am

Great work 'JS'
Thanks for the update on the 50hpa SH temperature animation. I am attempting to document this event on my blog and need hard real time evidence and links to data.
Whilst we have been talking about stratospheric warming ' , you envisage, conjures up images of the whole circumference of the stratosphere warming.
But in fact according to that animation, the cooling is adjacent to that warming is equally impressive!!!
Not all the stratosphere has warmed evenly

It probably would be more correct to call this a temperature disturbance to the stratosphere just that.
What l am saying is that words can be misleading

The anomaly is curiously split into TWO.!!!!! I can see it peaked ..about 20th june and is currently weakening since the 1st July 2019

What we are observing on your animated gif' is one large cold pool and one large warm pool adjacent, in the stratosphere, rotating around the pole .
The northerly extent of that warm pool is impressive reaching northward to 50s
Image

The find your find on the change in surface temps' at the Antartic is excellent. Linking the temperature disturbance in the stratosphere to the change in Antartic surface temps'..kudos ..,'trophy' for you.
Could you provide the link to where you got that info' thanks


Regarding a tropopause contraction what variable are you monitoring ? geopotential height?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:39 am

Satpic looks impressive!!

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:07 pm

crikey wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:17 am

Could you provide the link to where you got that info' thanks[/b]


Regarding a tropopause contraction what variable are you monitoring ? geopotential height?

Link to surface global anomalies https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

I've been watching the sounding data closely over the last 2 weeks of June from GFS re:tropopause


In my opinion, until the 4th step of the scientific method is complete, weather pattern and climatic shift theories are only theories. That's why I closely watch observation data before being confident. As you have seen, I've tracked the anomaly from 050 Hpa to 1000 hPa. Until I'd completed that last step, it was just a theory. Now we watch the next 3 weeks play out to draw a conclusion. Possible barrage of polar jet pulses into the mid latitudes, possible cut off lows if moisture creeps down from the North.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:23 pm

thanks 'js' . A great link..
Look forward to your findings
Also a big Hi to petros'.....Glad you made it over' petros'
. Look forward to your posts

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:13 am

Hi All,
Looking at the link below, I reckon we are in for another cold snap around end of month. What do others think?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:02 pm

ACCESS 7day forecast has the SE of OZ on the SE flank of a big high pressure cell all week. This looks to be bringing some cold wind streams up from the sub polar region. So l don't think its going to be warm.
But as for some decent high amplitude troughing our hope rests in the AAO forecast for a strong dip into negative territory.
The sub polar jet looks 'out of order' this week.
Following week likely to re emerge. But how strong is yet to be seen

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:57 am

The split in the polar vortex has all but "healed" looking at the following link:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -83.95,488

But another stratospheric warming event is happening over Antarctica between Africa and OZ:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

An end of month polar blast is looking likely atm IMHO.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Hasanitch » Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:51 pm

Image not your typical looking winter. You can see the impact of a +iod.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Sat Jul 13, 2019 7:12 pm

Hasanitch wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:51 pm
Image not your typical looking winter. You can see the impact of a +iod.
Thanks for posting. 'hasanitch'
That tropical blob will have to in investigate.?
Don't like what l see for the south alps . Hope that forecast is wrong.
A dry anomaly for most of OZ in the coming weeks..apparently.
......
This week on ACC g .A strong large high pressure cell taking its time to pass by OZ. Its still over the continent albeit weaker in 6days time . So a significant factor in that dry forecast. A tad of blocking over the continent atm

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by bd7 » Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:27 pm

That rain prog goes up and down like a yo yo, especially on the second map...EC prog shows decent fronts in that period.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:04 pm

Mid to polar latitudes (40 to 80 degrees south) heat flux anomalies now appearing in the upper stratosphere above multiple regions. It seems like another stratospherically induced weak vortex event is now underway from 10 hPa to 100 hPa as per Didjman earlier post when reviewing the NOAA data https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

I'm keeping an eye on the tropopause now for signs of downward propagation in the atmospheric coupling process :)
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:38 pm

Hi JS,
what exactly are we looking at in that graphic? I have seen it, but am totally confused as to what it is saying:( Also, where do you monitor Tropopause height?

Re Tropopause height, I found after some googling that Skew -T charts indicate where the tropopause height is from change in lapse rates.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM).

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:32 pm

Didjman wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:38 pm
Hi JS,
what exactly are we looking at in that graphic? I have seen it, but am totally confused as to what it is saying:( Also, where do you monitor Tropopause height?

Re Tropopause height, I found after some googling that Skew -T charts indicate where the tropopause height is from change in lapse rates.
Along with the temp anomalies you have been analysing between 10 to 50 hPa and the wind anomalies, eddy heat flux anomalies are part of the finger print for a stratospheric induced polar vortex weakening event.

Re: tropopause, spot on with skew chart. Sites like tropical tidbits can give you a GFS sounding by drilling down on the map.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM).

Post by Didjman » Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:24 am

JasmineStorm wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:32 pm

Along with the temp anomalies you have been analysing between 10 to 50 hPa and the wind anomalies, eddy heat flux anomalies are part of the finger print for a stratospheric induced polar vortex weakening event.

Re: tropopause, spot on with skew chart. .
Thx for the info JS (learning heaps again :D ) Re the chart, what does "gpm" mean re contour units?
I also noticed on the Melbourne Skew T that the tropopause HAD dropped between 2300 Sunday and 100 yesterday. Will be interesting to see the next update as to whether a trend is happening. Adelaide and Hobart showed the same.

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