Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

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bd7
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Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by bd7 » Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:12 pm

One from weatherzone which I always follow for new folk moving over

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:00 pm

Welcome BD7! Good topic and always plenty going on with the climate drivers.

Here is a little something to get things going. Lower Stratospheric polar vortex is splitting in 2 from a sudden stratospheric warming event during June. Tropopause is lowering and the jet is about to cut loose equatorward. SAM is going negative, winter is about to arrive for SE OZ in a weeks time :)
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Hoffa » Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:41 pm

BD as in Bucketing Down? Cheers for starting the thread.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:37 am

Hey man. That is friggin awesome. :D Keep us updated.I am a bit busy atm with WZ closure and chaingmup,archived content

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:21 pm

So some questions. come to mind.
When was the last SH polar vortex split?
What variables should we watch as this event unfolds. ie 500hpa geopotential height.

I have tweeted michael Ventice and asked him to do a blurb on the event, so hope he does
Any other sites likely to cover this event?
We must keep in mind that is a GPS forecast for 4days time..10th July 2019 .Has the split already started morphing.
Would be happy if people could provide links to their sources.

Here is the SH snapped by 'pow' in ski forum of the SH synoptic before the polar vortex split. Notice the 2very deep high pressure cells with close to record high mslp. I believe high pressure anomalies are often a protagonist in initializing these events. I read that in a research journal last weekImage

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Hoffa » Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:44 pm

I don't see any further likelihood of Nino this year now. Major erosion of warm anomalies along the equator in the last week and cold pool growing along the thermocline.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:38 pm

crikey wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:21 pm
So some questions. come to mind.
When was the last SH polar vortex split?
What variables should we watch as this event unfolds. ie 500hpa geopotential height.

I have tweeted michael Ventice and asked him to do a blurb on the event, so hope he does
Any other sites likely to cover this event?
We must keep in mind that is a GPS forecast for 4days time..10th July 2019 .Has the split already started morphing.
Would be happy if people could provide links to their sources.
Check this link! At 70hpa, the looming split is easily seen as well as the northward kink in the polar jet.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -69.02,488

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:03 pm

Hey thanks' didjman' for finding that animation and the providing the link.
Isn't real time research just a treat!!
I have taken a still of that.,below
Can you tell me if that animation is real time or is a forecast for few days time?
Image

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:29 pm

crikey wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:03 pm
Hey thanks' didjman' for finding that animation and the providing the link.
Isn't real time research just a treat!!
I have taken a still of that.,below
Can you tell me if that animation is real time or is a forecast for few days time?
That link was at 1900 tonight

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:36 pm

According to GFS 70hpa Absolute vorticitity , the polar vortex splits today, 7th July 2019 and remains in two until the 12th when the vortex returns to equilibrium.
If anyone has time to take a few screen shots of those null school wind stream lines over the antartic at 70hpa and maybe below and above to see its shape and depth.
would appreciate any help or input . Thanks

http://db.cger.nies.go.jp/gem/stras/en/ ... ar=s&k=320

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... r&VEC=none
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Petros » Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:06 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:00 pm
Welcome BD7! Good topic and always plenty going on with the climate drivers.

Here is a little something to get things going. Lower Stratospheric polar vortex is splitting in 2 from a sudden stratospheric warming event during June. Tropopause is lowering and the jet is about to cut loose equatorward. SAM is going negative, winter is about to arrive for SE OZ in a weeks time :)
Nice post JS.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:02 am

Tropospheric polar vortex losing a lot of shape due to the tropopause lowering. Polar Jet now cutting loose equatorward and should propagate into SE OZ with a long wave trough in a few days. Result will be 1 to 2 foot of snow for the Alps, maybe snow down to 600m on Saturday.
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:32 am

Pacific is looking interesting all of a sudden, with a brief drop onto the La Nina side last week. Currently tracking well under global model projection for July at this stage. One to keep an eye on.
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Hoffa » Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:36 pm

The CFSv2 model shows borderline LaNina temps through August to year's end at time of posting. Hot linked so it WILL change.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... no3Mon.gif

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:36 pm

Could you provide a link to the polar vortex K map 'jstorm'. thanks.


Looking at ACC g 200hpa this morning at jetstreams, the sub polar jet almost non existent today and the polar cold belt contracted well south.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

The 5 deg c contour line for the SH is right back at 2 deg c at latitude 50s
No cold polar excursions from the SH region at all this week. According to ACC g temperature animation
http://www.bom.gov.au/charts_data/IDY20 ... 1562500800

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:06 pm

Good pick up Hoffa on CFS. Signal in the Pacific is definitely changing at the moment.

@crikey - Link to stratospheric polar vortex as requested. https://www.stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Hoffa » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:11 pm

Here's the image. Quite a change from last month.

Image

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:44 am

The big tropopause squeeze downward from the stratosphere is now making NASA and GFS leave SAM negative for a significant period. Main GFS is now going feral longer term, showing sigincant snow accumlations in the ALPs. One point of interest and obviously it can't be taken seriously at the moment, was GFS 18Z is producing the 524 thickness line into Vic and NSW in 12 days, similar to the 25 June 1986 set up. Shows the volitility is increasing in the global models :)
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SAM 8 July GFS NASA.jpg
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:54 pm

Not sure about that stratoserve site 'JS'.,It looks like it is a private site where some one has made their own algorithm and sourced input data from a climate data site. Which is ok but there is nothing there to suggest his program is working nor any personal updates.
Other reputable sources have shown a considerable shaking of the polar vortex from top to bottom. I doubt whether it really looks that in tact as currently displayed on his site.
Here is the 70hpa wind profile from null school clearly showing 2 vortices. 7th July2019

source
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -69.02,180

Image

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:05 pm

I wish there was a 'like button' on this forum 'Jake' . Can you arrange that for your next upgrade. I would like to 'like' The above 'JS' post cos l love the graphics.
.....
Could you elaborate a bit more on this comment 'JS'

'The big tropopause squeeze downward from the stratosphere'

Could you please provide a link for the data you used to asses that statement. Are you refering to geopotential height or some thing else.?
I would like to hear more about how yousee this..

Would appreciate a link to that fab' AAO graph as well,if thats ok.
regards
Nice to see the Online numbers increasing for you 'guys' ..Nice to see. :D

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