Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

VIC - Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12 2019

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
Locked
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

VIC - Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Classic winter pattern with a strong front for Wednesday followed by a second front around Friday which looks like forming a deep low. Uppers get very chilly (dropping to around -3C) so widespread snow in the alps, potentially heavy.

Progs been jumping a bit with the placement of the low which will be critical for totals, but currently looks like moderate to heavy falls for much of southern and mountain areas. With a still warm bay, a swly cyclonic system could produce big falls in the Yarra Ranges etc. latest EC has nearly 100mm for here, which would be very welcome.
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2802
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by StratoBendigo »

Probably 15-30mm here, and a nice follow up to the 28mm last week. Looks quite decent and rather wintry too later this week :D
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by hillybilly »

Progs slowly winding back :( Two strong front, but system doesn’t cut off now. Will be a wave low in the westerlies, but this doesn’t fully split off so the system moves through quicker. Still moderate to heavy falls in parts of the south, but general pattern more 5-20mm north, 15-30mm south, with heaviest falls near the Otways, South Gippsland, Yarra Ranges and northeast. Very cold air for May, with 850Ts dropping to about -3C, so snow level dropping to around 900m. Handy follow-up.

I do fear the western plains, Mallee and East Gippsland will struggle again.
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Skywalker »

StratoBendigo wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 8:23 pm I do fear the western plains, Mallee and East Gippsland will struggle again.
In other words the drought looks likely to continue for us. :(
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
S
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 999
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Sean »

hillybilly wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 6:47 am Progs slowly winding back :( Two strong front, but system doesn’t cut off now. Will be a wave low in the westerlies, but this doesn’t fully split off so the system moves through quicker. Still moderate to heavy falls in parts of the south, but general pattern more 5-20mm north, 15-30mm south, with heaviest falls near the Otways, South Gippsland, Yarra Ranges and northeast. Very cold air for May, with 850Ts dropping to about -3C, so snow level dropping to around 900m. Handy follow-up.

I do fear the western plains, Mallee and East Gippsland will struggle again.
Noticed that the projected rain totals have plummeted. Annoying.

Hopefully it turns around.
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Gordon »

Bit of an upgrade for us in the latest models however.

So the downgrade/upgrade ride continues - after last week, at least I know upgrade can actually deliver!
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by hillybilly »

Gordon wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 8:36 pm Bit of an upgrade for us in the latest models however.

So the downgrade/upgrade ride continues - after last week, at least I know upgrade can actually deliver!
Yeah, they look much better tonight. GFS3 and EC both got about 50mm for here. Could well have a MTD by the weekend of 100mm if they come good. Surface is nice and damp here, but need some big totals to replenish the soil moisture.
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by JasmineStorm »

Access R also jumping on the bandwagon with a very productive 72 hours ahead with the latest 18z run. If Access R and EC verifies, I'm going to smash through the May rainfall average already. The vertical temperature differences from 850 to 500 hPa on Thursday evening are quite large through central areas. The Thursday system is becoming quite unstable due to the very cold temps of the upper trough.
Attachments
Access R 0605 18Z.jpg
Access R 0605 18Z.jpg (261.49 KiB) Viewed 12986 times
User avatar
occluded
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 611
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 3:26 pm
Location: Mooroolbark 130m asl

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by occluded »

Thanks JS and HB, that's a bit more like it, after the semi-disappointing result for here last week.

OCF ensemble has upgraded here to 28mm for Thursday so fingers are crossed.
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2802
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by StratoBendigo »

Another 20-30 mm would go a long way to transform the countryside here.

I still think AXS-R is a bit optimistic though.

Some suggestions of possible storms with tonight's cold front.
C
Chritc
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:59 am

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Chritc »

Access-R latest has upgraded again for areas East of Melbourne. 15-25mm generally overnight and early tomorrow with another 25-35mm coming through late Thursday.
S
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 999
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Sean »

Some good falls on the SA/Vic border and the BOM forecast has improved.
W
Wilko
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1488
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Wilko »

Chritc wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 4:44 pm Access-R latest has upgraded again for areas East of Melbourne. 15-25mm generally overnight and early tomorrow with another 25-35mm coming through late Thursday.

Same here ;
Nice ro see the models playing ball for once
Looking at 30-50mm if we get lucky

The Bay is currently 16-17c so there may be potential for good falls With the SW later in the sequence
W
Wilko
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1488
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Wilko »

EC has upgraded again for 55mm
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2802
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by StratoBendigo »

Nasty duststorm tore through Mildura this afternoon. Not good.
t
tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 494
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by tonycynic »

Rain is on the radar now. Looking forward to a wet week.
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by JasmineStorm »

Mt Gambier 22mm. Based on the latest 00z run, that is double any model projected except for Access C that had around 20mm. Hopefully that trend continues for round 1 overnight.
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Skywalker »

tonycynic wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 6:52 pm Rain is on the radar now. Looking forward to a wet week.
Hope that's rain and not dust!

Cleaned the gutters out when I arrived home from work in anticipation. Really need this one to come off and put an end to this constant drought here.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
S
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 999
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Sean »

Some good images of the dust storm: https://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/v ... 23e64ccac0

Very ominous. Wouldn't want to breathe that in... Can you get tetanus via the lungs?
W
Wilko
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1488
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

Post by Wilko »

Like a school line developed in south of the bay
Ben down the hatches guys the wind could be wild at the initial stages
Locked