That's interesting Jasmine. It's good to know we're not in unchartered territory, although I think we've suffered quite a lot this time due to the extreme heat in summer. I wonder what the picture will look like when we include April?JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:00 pm I actually had a look at BoM data recently on this long term topic at the nearest long term station to here, Malmsbury reservoir dating back to 1872. Here are the driest starts to the year in order. 2019 is currently 14th associated with this BoM data.
January to March
1882 - 6mm
1965 - 20mm
1967 - 22mm
1923 - 23mm
1892 - 27mm
2009 - 28mm
1879 - 31mm
1893 - 31mm
1986 - 34mm
1894 - 36mm
1992 - 37mm
1985 - 41mm
1997 - 41mm
2019 - 43mm (14th)
Thanks Jasmine. A ray of hope!JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:18 pm 75 separate model runs across EC and GFS on the 12Z run are signalling a strong MJO phase into the eastern Indian Ocean at the start of May. If they verify, this will deliver increased moisture into any upper low that cuts off from polar region in the first 2 weeks of May. Show time seems to be getting closer
The BoM's view is up until yesterday for MJO and not the model projection.
If we have no more rain in April, it will go well into the top 10 since 1872 as some of those years had the Autumn break in April.
Thx for that JSJasmineStorm wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:11 pm
The BoM's view is up until yesterday for MJO and not the model projection.
Here is the projected 16 day EC ensemble view link https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmm.shtml
Here is the projected 16 day GFS ensemble view link https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... egfs.shtml
And thats when the MJO pulse is forecast to kick in. Hopefully some moisture gets dragged down in a NW cloudbandStratoBendigo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:09 pm It's looking pretty cold from Friday onwards. May 2-6 is shaping up for a cold outbreak too...
Going back to the Malmsbury reservoir BoM records example that dates back to 1872. Its annual mean is 720mm. The 20 years between 1884 to 1903, it only had 2 years that exceeded the annual mean. Over its 147 year history, it has only passed its mean 720mm around 40% of those years. This current pattern traces back nearly 150 years on this BoM data for us locally.hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:23 pm
Btw the issue with our rain is not so much the dry spells, but the lack of sustained wet ones. We’ve always had droughts, but they used to be largely part of the boom and bust cycle which is normal in our climate as the IOD and ENSO lurch from wet to dry to wet. We’ve “lost” the the recovery booms. Droughts aren’t always properly broken. It’s most apparent in spots which depend most on the westerly rainfall. You can see this in the Vic annual rainfall with 18 below average, one average and three above average years since 1997. The three above average years were driven by extreme tropical influences 2010, 2011 and 2016.
Do you know where I can find Melbourne's annual rainfall data going back to when records began? I want a list of every annual total from back then to now, as it would be interesting to see if there are any patterns, but I just can't seem to find it on BOM's website (not user friendly at all)JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:19 pmGoing back to the Malmsbury reservoir BoM records example that dates back to 1872. Its annual mean is 720mm. The 20 years between 1884 to 1903, it only had 2 years that exceeded the annual mean. Over its 147 year history, it has only passed its mean 720mm around 40% of those years. This current pattern traces back nearly 150 years on this BoM data for us locally.hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:23 pm
Btw the issue with our rain is not so much the dry spells, but the lack of sustained wet ones. We’ve always had droughts, but they used to be largely part of the boom and bust cycle which is normal in our climate as the IOD and ENSO lurch from wet to dry to wet. We’ve “lost” the the recovery booms. Droughts aren’t always properly broken. It’s most apparent in spots which depend most on the westerly rainfall. You can see this in the Vic annual rainfall with 18 below average, one average and three above average years since 1997. The three above average years were driven by extreme tropical influences 2010, 2011 and 2016.
Direct links at the URLs below. You can also use the interface at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/Do you know where I can find Melbourne's annual rainfall data going back to when records began? I want a list of every annual total from back then to now, as it would be interesting to see if there are any patterns, but I just can't seem to find it on BOM's website (not user friendly at all)