VIC - Another long warm spell, with showers. March 15-23 2019

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hillybilly
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VIC - Another long warm spell, with showers. March 15-23 2019

Post by hillybilly » Fri Mar 15, 2019 5:33 am

Looks like we are stuck in another long warm to hot spell with a big high to our east and a trough sat near Victoria. Unfortunately the surface trough over Vic has an upper ridge above and upper trough to its east so we will have large scale subsidence which will cap showers despite ok low level humidity. Some showers will edge west, with locally heavy falls in the far east. These could spread to the Otways, South Gippsland, the northeast and perhaps central on a couple of days.

Temperature will be above average through out, mostly sitting in the mid to high 20s and 30s north. There might be a front in about a week to break down the pattern with more general showers.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:07 am

Not much to report on from here. Our water catchment (Coliban water) still sitting around 65% this morning with the main dam at 75%, so plenty of water for the towns before the southern wet season starts . The same water catchment was near zero in 2007 during the Millennium drought. I drought proofed my property before the millennium drought with underground water supplies. Currently the surface here is bone dry but its only at the surface with my natives doing fine, underground water flowing hard to the surface. December's rain has done its job.

When will the Autumn break arrive? Always the big question in March / April :) EC showing the monsoon gyre spawning 3 cyclones from the Indian ocean to the Coral sea in 5 days from now. Models will become quite volatile in about 4 days time IMO viewtopic.php?f=3&p=109538#p109538 :)

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Didjman » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:00 am

I am in Caloundra 25-27. Could be interesting!!

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Skywalker » Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:14 pm

Not much to report here on the island.
Currently a sunny 27°C with lots of smoke haze.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by snowfall » Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:14 pm

Yes, nothing much in the way of weather. Sunny, slight breeze here, and 27c. Low of 11.c last night. Could smell smoke this morning, but not now. It's still hazy though. So far this year, we've only had 49mm and just 13 days with any precipitation. Only 7.6mm this month, and currently tracking at 2c above average for both maximum and minimum temperatures. Hopefully, as Jasmine noted, maybe a glimmer of something to break the pattern in about 10 days time?

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Didjman » Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:55 pm

snowfall wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:14 pm
Hopefully, as Jasmine noted, maybe a glimmer of something to break the pattern in about 10 days time?
Being in Caloundra 25-27 March, I might get to vid/sound record my first QLD storms :D

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:10 am

25C in FC yesterday. Looks like the same for the next four days here. Might get a bit of fog.

But... the Progs are slowly ramping up the prospect for rain. Increasing showers out east and near the Otways with potential for local heavy falls. Should spread into west Gippsland, so not out of the question that showers might make it into central. Thursday and Friday see the trough deepen and an upper trough move in from the west. Should be widespread showers late with potential for storms.

Big system showing up for early next week. Could be the autumn break? The upper trough stalls near us an a strong front comes up into it. Hoping it holds. It’s been on EC for a few runs, which is encouraging.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:39 pm

Another almost hot one here with 25C. Notably humid, with haze and a few Cu popping up. A low has developed south of Sydney and will push southwest. Should be some decent falls the next three days for areas east of about Marysville and also the Otways and South Gippsland. Might get the odd shower or drizzle patch into central. Many going fires out east so hopefully this one delivers ;)

Still on track for a trough to deepen over Vic on Friday and form a weak low on Saturday. Could well be moderate or better falls for ares east of about Geelong at this stage. Few days out so could change.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:50 am

The BoM named TC Trevor this morning in the Coral sea. EC projecting Trevor to become a cat 5 in the gulf heading towards NT / QLD border within the week. Major Polar low heading equatorward in the bight at the same time. Subtropical and polar jets will meet at some point. Models will go wild if moisture from the tropics squeezes south. Needs a few more days to know what TC Trevor does IMO.
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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:46 am

EC has over 25mm for us - bring it on. Although GFS isn't interested.

Looking forward to mid to high-teen max temps next week!

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:45 am

23C yesterday and sunny, but humid. Thick fog this morning and almost drizzle. Chance of the odd shower today. Good to see those falls out east across the fire grounds. Best falls in ages, though patchy so not everywhere scored. Peak falls near 100mm.

Progs firming on a good thundery outbreak late Friday and across Saturday, then strong front for Monday. Will be a decent blow on Monday which could pose lots of issues with so many drought weakened trees. Progs pretty consistent in showing 20-50mm for most areas east of Melbourne, and patchy falls west. Looks like an autumn break if it holds :? And we get follow up. Snow on the alps come Tuesday, potentially dropping quite low.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Gordon » Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:02 am

Thanks for the continuing updates HB... maybe the rest of us are too scared to post for fear of mozzing it!

Very humid here with foggy starts yesterday, and still thick fog/ light drizzle at 16C today. High DPs, just need a trigger.

Edit: Latest Weatherzone synopotic charts look promising, but too many recent disappointments to get excited yet.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:39 pm

We Wish to reroof our house Saturday Sunday Monday
Do You think it’s similar to hanging out the old washing ?

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:20 pm

Another warm humid one in the Dandenongs. Squeeze out 0.2mm from overnight mizzle so not completely fine.

Garden is slowly transforming into something more typical of the Adelaide Hills or Flinders Ranges at this time of year :( Lots of very stressed trees and bushes now.

Progs all hold something for the coming weekend into next year, but not entirely confident it will be as big as it looked a run or two back. UK, ACCESS-S, German, and CMC all look very good. GFS/GFS3 look pretty good. EC is getting a bit wierd inching down the thundery event and then making next weeks change more of a westerly which will see us get more wind and less rain :( It always worries me when EC downgrades as its the best model...

Meanwhile, another two days of almost showers for Vic. We have a surface trough, good low level moisture, but a stubborn upper ridge :(

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Adam38 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:58 pm

I so can’t wait to hear the rain on the colorbond roof in my new house!! I’ve been waiting patiently for the last
3 weeks 😂

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:00 pm

Launceston had 0.4 mm this afternoon to take the March total so far to 0.6mm

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:50 pm

Adam38 wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:58 pm
I so can’t wait to hear the rain on the colorbond roof in my new house!! I’ve been waiting patiently for the last
3 weeks 😂
Still in BM?

Thick fog in FC, bordering on drizzle. Trees are dripping like crazy :D Put out a bucket and collected about 1mm so far. Hope it goes all night, and turns to proper drizzle. Thinking it’s a good set up for the hills north and northwest of the bay, so could well add up around Macedon etc.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by Adam38 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:15 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:50 pm
Adam38 wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:58 pm
I so can’t wait to hear the rain on the colorbond roof in my new house!! I’ve been waiting patiently for the last
3 weeks 😂
Still in BM?

Thick fog in FC, bordering on drizzle. Trees are dripping like crazy :D Put out a bucket and collected about 1mm so far. Hope it goes all night, and turns to proper drizzle. Thinking it’s a good set up for the hills north and northwest of the bay, so could well add up around Macedon etc.
Still in BM, I’m up on top of a ridge overlooking the Pentland Hills and Werribee river valley. Great for weather watching!

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by snowfall » Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:47 pm

21.8c max today. Fog and light drizzle here at the moment. We’ve had thick fog here for the last 3 mornings - there’s definitely plenty of moisture in the air. Shame it can’t come together for a rain event. EC looks to have downgraded quite a lot for this area for the next week, but still hopeful that it comes back a bit. Even a few mm would be good just to take the edge off and get some water into the tanks.

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Re: Another long warm spell, with possible showers. March 15-25

Post by hillybilly » Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:07 am

Very thick fog all night, which turned to drizzle about an hour ago. 0.4mm in the gauge.

But... in the forests this has dropped a lot more. I put out a bucket and captured near 20mm under a typical patch of trees on our block. Gardens going to be a bit patchy after this as under bushes and trees it looks like a 5-10mm fall or better. We’re at the top of the range so tend to get the best of the fog.

Progs have come back for the weekend. All look pretty good, with general 10-30mm falls (apart from the northwest). CMC, UKMO, ACCESS and German look best with large falls, EC bit less. The two GFs models are probably the least good, but still ok for most southern areas. New thread time :?:

Looks like TC Trevor is headed for Alice Springs. That track could put it in play for a significant rainfall event down here in about ten days provided the next high moves in fairly quickly on next week (which is the EC scenario). Could change, of course...

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