VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

[hillybilly]

Best storm here in ages. Glad to be proven wrong, though really we just got seriously lucky with one rogue slow moving cell where the convergence and incoming rainband met. Peak rainfall rate of 235mm/hr. Just shy of 18mm in the gauge. First proper downpour here since before Christmas.

Now for some follow-up... please....

[Harley34]

Best storm here in ages. Glad to be proven wrong, though really we just got seriously lucky with one rogue slow moving cell where the convergence and incoming rainband met. Peak rainfall rate of 235mm/hr. Just shy of 18mm in the gauge. First proper downpour here since before Christmas.

Now for some follow-up... please....

Nice one, but the eastern suburbs are left with the remnants of the general band. The line did well for its position. I hope tomorrow scores an inch. Melbourne can put on a show...

[flyfisher]

We got that slow moving cell here too - finally. Sitting on 7mm.

[snowfall]

Finished with 12.6mm here. Started off very heavy with the odd bit of thunder and then transitioned into a couple of hours of light to moderate rain. Nice to at least get some moisture into the otherwise parched ground. Looks like most central areas got something, which is not bad given that it was looking very uncertain. Really muggy here now - 18.6c and DP of 16c.

[SC.]

This is why I never post in hope. Hope is never weather forecasting. But those who have missed out in the past is my greatest wish.

[James]

very dissapointing - only a few cracks of thunder..but the little rain there was, was def welcome.

How is tommorow shaping up, any better than today - or more of the same type of situation?

[Wilko]

Very disappointed indeed After showed great promise out west
Better get something tomorrow or want my money back

Jasmine help I’m depressed
Please give us weather nerds some hope

Ps The wind Has backe around to the north

[hillybilly]

19mm here in the gauge. Garden smells different this morning (fresh, rather than smoky and fried ).

Today’s messy and not that ideal. We are in col, and the change from northerlies to southerlies is likely to push through central areas before the arvo (GFS has it around 10 or 11am). The further east and the later the wind change, the better the prospects. The showers/storms boundary looks to be somewhere near Melbourne. These events usually pop soon after the sun goes up, as the atmosphere is saturdated from bottom to top and the lapse rate is steep.

Solid change for tomorrow, with some showers and drizzle in the south, with a repeat on Saturday and again on Tuesday. The parent low which mainly affect Tasmania is unusually strong for February with some good cold air (though best of it goes through Bass Strait and Tasmania). Looks like westerlies will push quite a long way north which won’t be good for heat and fire danger to our north

[JasmineStorm]

14 glorious mils. Close CG’s and big kabooms, very happy with yesterday. Superb storm structure on that rogue that went across the west and north of Melbourne. Gotta luv those summer storm set ups.

For me, I would think that will be it. Currently 2 troughs in play but it doesn’t line up as well today for here. Hope I’m wrong.

I’m not confident on the BoM forecast for Melbourne either. They had a shocker yesterday for the city forecast. A max of 30c ended up being 35c and they only had a chance of a storm. They also had a chance to update the forecast to local thunderstorms for the 5am forecast and missed that as well. Within 12 hours, they were sketching red attack arrows on STW's across the suburbs and city.

IMO, they need to change their forecast timing…. throw out the old school 4.20pm forecast and replace it with a 7pm forecast which has the latest data. Especially for the 2 to 7 day range.... some of their 2 to 7 day range forecasting on extreme events is a train wreck because of the time lag in their forecasting.

[Tassiedave]

Rain in Tas: Iris River 50mm, Mt Barrow 38mm, Triabunna 30mm, Hobart 25mm, Geeveston 17mm, Liawenee 15mm, Launceston 6mm. Great falls across the fire grounds.

[Onetahuti]

A 'massive' total of 2.6mm, should have watered. A few distant rumbles heard if outside.

[Macedonian]

Rain in Tas: Iris River 50mm, Mt Barrow 38mm, Triabunna 30mm, Hobart 25mm, Geeveston 17mm, Liawenee 15mm, Launceston 6mm. Great falls across the fire grounds.

Wonderful news. Thanks for letting us know.

[stevco123]

Just doesn't look right today for some reason. Anything will be developing JUST to the east of the metro area, with rogue showers to the west of the mian action - the complete opposite to yesterday.

I actually AM glad I watered that garden.

[Chritc]

Very unusual for us to be one of the best performing locations in Melbourne (Keilor East)... Over the last week I reckon we've had close to 50mm with only around 10mm a few kms away. Insanely local event.

[hillybilly]

Trough sat near Geelong. To its east is an area of low level convergence which is starting to light up. Crazy humid. City feels like Brisbane with a DP just shy of 20C.

EC has wind change through eastern burbs about noon to 1pm so bit of time for heating. Definitely a day that will favour the east.

[stevco123]

1mm from that cell that just went over me. Another one following behind it shortly

[occluded]

6mm yesterday evening - was hoping for more but seeing bulk of the rain go to the west yesterday I'm ok with what we got.

22C/19C this morning - seemed to go from cool-ish to warm and humid in no time - some more rain now with that cell that's popped up over the NE suburbs.

[Macedonian]

I just checked the raingauge at work (nr Macedon) and was surprised to find 19mm. Much better than my 10mm on the mountain. I wish i had've thought to turn the watering system off yesterday.

[Onetahuti]

Be thankful for small mercies, 2.2mm this morning to add to the 2.6mm last night, watering today cancelled.

[JasmineStorm]

Wind convergence is still sitting around Melbourne. Not much chance for here but it gives the north and north eastern areas around Melbourne a chance for a storm this afternoon.