Wilko wrote: ↑Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:00 pm
JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:10 pm
BoM 4.20pm going nice and conservative for Friday and then EC control 00Z pulls no punches. BoM internally must now be quite concerned that EC keeps producing this synoptic scenario.
The negative SAM signal last week was a good hint of the upcoming propagating Rossby wave into southern Australia within the next 5 to 9 days. Combining with the terrestrial heat bomb in the middle, we now have a significant fire weather set up on our hands IMO.
I find this whole Aussie heat event quite depressing
I dunno if the countryside/rivers and wildlife will ever be the same once this summer is done for and this is just the “thin edge of the wedge”
The Ecology will be scarred permanently and I do not take any joy breaking temp records
For some time now I have been planning to head south or to higher altitude and go surfing before my reefs are no longer surfable
Planning to live off the grid 🏕
Generally, Australian fauna and flora will cope with extreme heat, but the duration of events and the number that have occurred are doing damage. The mass bat and fish deaths are receiving the most coverage, but farmers are reporting loss of cattle. There are reports of native mammals dying also, which is troubling.
The biggest issue is regeneration. The more heat, the more death, the harder it is for animal numbers and vegetation to regenerate. For instance, 46, 47+ temperatures may not kill a tree the first time, but if those temperatures happen more often, especially without a wet and cool growing season in between, they can. Outside of the Mallee, Victorian woodland copes with the once per decade, extreme heatwave. Because in that time, younger trees and plants can establish themselves, therefore have the strength to cope. Problem is, frequent heatwaves kill young trees and saplings before they can establish. This hinders regeneration and can lead to all sorts of problems such as rising salinity levels, which basically sterilises the land).
Winter in Victoria is a season of rejuvenation typically, where rains raise the soil moisture and younger trees can grow. But with failing rains, the soil isn't ready for summer. Couple that with increased frequency of harsh frosts and the Victorian woodland won't expand. We've been lucky, though (sorta). Tropical rain events have kept us going. Predictions surrounding the changing nature of our climate have pointed to poor winter rain and clearer skies, which has been happening, but big rain events associated with tropical infeed have been happening too, so hopefully these events replace winter shortcomings. If they don't, well, the Mallee's semi-arid biome will probably expand. Warmer temperatures and less rain are not without consequences. The biggest losers will be farmers that's for sure. Less rain = poorer yields, less fodder (and if tropical rain events occur more often, brown rot and fruit split will also occur). Winter frosts are also going to be a major issue. Some crops may be planted so late in winter to avoid frost that snap droughts or rain events will spoil them just before harvest.
As for our wildlife, well, it will suffer. We've craved up and thinned the forests to such an extent that poor rains = mass starvation, couple that with horrendous fires, roadkill and extreme heat events and you're looking at ecological disaster. This looming heatwave will be bad in ways we can't immediately see, so let's hope it doesn't eventuate. 30c is warm enough for the beach IMO