Might as well pull the trigger on this one
It seems certain that a significant upper low will move into S.A on Wednesday. Based on potential, this atmospheric set up is undeniably extreme. Looking at past events, the position and temperature layers of the upper trough is very similar to the Feb 2005 event. No 2 events are ever the same but there is a pattern between large upper tropospheric cyclonic vortexes and tropical depression /cyclones. Feb 2011 was a different type of set up but tropical cyclones were also involved in that event.
The moisture content is almost at equatorial levels. EC projecting total Precip water levels over 60mm on Friday into Victoria in certain areas, I can’t remember seeing values this high before (Maybe HB would know the record?) How extreme the system becomes is all about Tropical cyclone Owen’s redevelopment and steering through Queensland and how much moisture is sent down the atmospheric river. At the moment, models differ and differ on each run so all the normal downgrades and upgrades occur.
I’m not going to have a stab at rainfall totals or where supercells may develop until I see what TC Owen does but the potential puts it into the historical event category.
Let the fun begin