Warm to hot one in the Dandenongs. Scored 0.4mm overnight.
Looks like a bit of convection under clearer skies west of Geelong. GFS wants to build showers in that area next few hours, so might be some interest or not
Progs going big for later in the week. EC has local falls topping 200mm in the single run, and over 100mm in the ensemble. Other models (UK, GFS2/3) look pretty similar. Potential to be a big event
Seems like this year might follow 1994 is breaking down the IOD/weak El Niño dry pattern early over Vic. Guess we will find out
EC scenario for the TC/EX-TC is remarkable.