Victoria: Another big low - 27-29 November 2018

[Gordon]

Well, it's on the BOM 4 dayer and looks impressive - I think that qualifies for a new thread .

After having nothing to talk about, we now have a decent system happening, and this one looming.

[StratoBendigo]

It'll be a good effort to have two sub-995 HPa systems over inland Vic in a week. This one doesn't look as moisture laden as this week's low. Probably a "half-an-inch" top up here.

[Hawker]

Could be a good event. The latest gfs has a surface low developing over southern nsw
moving south west, then doing a waltz over vic with an upper low. Dropping up to 80mm with
an elongated bullseye on top of Gordon.

[Gordon]

We could do with it. Managing okay with 27mm for the current system, but at the lower end compared to just a bit further east and north. A bullseye would be good . Latest EC has us down for about 50mm too...

Not banking the totals just yet, but nice to be considering a decent new system while the current one is still going. Haven't done that for a while!

[Hawker]

Just as well you are cautious Gordon, here one day gone the next.
But bom's 10 day likes it now

[Harley34]

Rain here, a weak trough?

[hillybilly]

Drifting north with each run, this one

Hopefully it comes back, but atm looks like a southern NSW and (perhaps) northern Vic event. The eastern parts of Gippsland might also do ok, depending on where the low drops out into the Tasman Sea. The zone of heavier rainfall is quite narrow where the upslide and moisture coincide, so could be some pretty tight gradients on this one.

[Tassiedave]

This event seems to have collapsed altogether?

[hillybilly]

This event seems to have collapsed altogether?

Yep, barcolincity goss north and misses the moisture. Won’t really be until the low pops onto the coast that decent rain gets cranking. There could be ok falls near the Murray and in Far East Gippsland but otherwise looks like just the odd shower for most of us.it could come back, but models all pretty tightly agreeing on the scenario which means it will probably stick.

[hillybilly]

System looks a bit messier on today’s runs, with general instability developing across northern Victoria today, perhaps edging a little into southern parts. Also some upslide into the upper low in a zone that runs from about Keith in South Australia to about Gabo Island. Anticipate some moderate falls, though a bit patchy, in the north and more widespread falls in East Gippsland. Southern areas will be pretty hit miss, so might squeeze out the odd shower, storm or drizzle patch.

Currently got thick fog here in FC with a bit of mizzle.

Further north in the westerlies to the north of this low the record heatwave continues in Queensland

[StratoBendigo]

Anything could happen here today. 0 to 20 mm is possible so I'll be watching the satpic when I can (given that the Western Vic radar hole is where much of the action could be today).

[Adam38]

That heat in FNQ is incredible!! 43.6c recorded at Cairns racecourse yesterday, I didn’t think it could get that hot up there.

[StratoBendigo]

That heat in FNQ is incredible!! 43.6c recorded at Cairns racecourse yesterday, I didn’t think it could get that hot up there.

It's extremely rare. But lots of ingredients came together - maximum solar radiation, faun wind from Inland West Qld that has been stewing for a while, plus urban heat island.

As for here in Vic today - I'm mildly optimistic for here. Access-R and EC suggest we might just get something. And I reckon it's rifting a little further South than predicted.

[Gordon]

Bendigo (and about half of Victoria; mainly but not only north) are now covered by BOM's 'Severe Thunderstorms Possible' forecast for today.

Certainly keeping us guessing, this one...

[StratoBendigo]

A fair bit of convection going on here at the moment. It could get interesting soon...

[hillybilly]

That heat in FNQ is incredible!! 43.6c recorded at Cairns racecourse yesterday, I didn’t think it could get that hot up there.

And again today Most sites on the Queensland coast have set an October record high this week, and many have set a highest in any month record.

Turned humid in the city, after recent cooler days. Looks unstable, though we are on the margins.

[Didjman]

Sparks in Kyneton - Castlemaine region.

[JasmineStorm]

Rumbling away just to the north, slow moving multicell clusters. Might get a little wet under one of these.

[StratoBendigo]

It's right on our doorstep. So slow moving....

[Hawker]

Lots of banging and crashing and some good lightning,
and lo and behold 10.5 mms of rain out of nowhere
and could get some more later