Victoria: Another Decent Cold Front - Nov 12-15 2018

[StratoBendigo]

Hot weather on Monday is expected, before a decent trough and cold front Tuesday-Wednesday.

For the Northern Country, forecast models are tossing up a divergent mix of rainfall totals - anything from 4mm to 50mm!

Discuss!

[Hawker]

yes that's about it Strato, get lucky or miss altogether

[Tassiedave]

Big downgrade this morning? Rain shifted East?

[hillybilly]

Progs doing the wiggle thing again

EC mainly shifted east. CMC and GFS3 still have good falls quite general. Across all models the northeast looks good for 20-50mm.

Could get 5 or 25mm in FC. Hoping for some followup as some toastie weather in the offering in the next ten days.

[JasmineStorm]

Looks like a showery multiple trough scenario across Tuesday and Wednesday. At the moment it doesn't have any real explosive triggers but it is late Spring, so last minute upgrades can't be ruled out Hoping for a few mm and would like to be surprised.


Next week I'm seeing something that made me check that my extreme weather kit is in order. Too early to really know but it has the initial recipe of extreme. Historically, Victoria's climatology suggests some of the biggest weather events in recorded history happen in the next few weeks. Whether this becomes one of them, it's too early to know but I'm watching it like a hawk http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 54#p107154

[Australis(Shell3155)]

got wet while watering the garden this morning..

[hillybilly]

Rather a hot one in FC today with a minimum of just 20C for us.

Not really holding out much hope for this system. Has all moved north and east on successive runs of the models. There’s reasonable Instability, but the low levels are generally dry. Bit frustrating to watch this event slowly fade as it has approached.

The northeast will do ok, but the rest of Vic will struggle. Am expecting 2-5mm locally. Might sneak a bit more, if we get lucky.

Next week is look rather more interesting, though that’s seven days out which gives the models plenty of time to downgrade

[Adam38]

I was hoping for some decent follow up rain but it now looks unlikely. I will be up at Cabarita Beach(far north NSW coast)
for a week from Friday so I am hoping for something more interesting weather wise up there.

[Skywalker]

I was hoping for some decent follow up rain but it now looks unlikely.

Same here. Things are virtually back where they were prior to last week's rainfall event, especially with the warmer conditons & disgusting wind today.

[jimmyay]

Is it actually going to rain today in Melb!?

[jimmyay]

Is it actually going to rain today in Melb!?

[StratoBendigo]

I chose the wrong title for this thread.

It should be - "Another Fizzer for most of Vic". Currently 32c and it doesn't feel at all like it'll rain today.

[Tassiedave]

Max temps in Tas today: Hobart 30.5, Campania 30.5, Bushy Park 30.0, Launceston 29.0, Fingal 28.3, Strahan 26.7, Wynyard 20.2

[Dane]

New Wimmera radar in 2020
www.stockjournal.com.au/story/5756189/r ... w/?src=rss

[Didjman]

That should fill the hole a bit!

[Adam38]

Some showers are starting to form west of B.Marsh along what looks like a wind change.
Getting a few rumbles now!

[wolfcat]

It did slow down, but it is nearly here. Geelong went from a high of 34.2 and down to 17

[snowfall]

Yes a narrow line of showers to the west, which are very slowly pushing east. Can’t be sure if the showers will even make it here!

Shame the event has dwindled - it was looking quite promising a few days ago. Just have to hope that the next one on the models holds up. The challenge at this time of the year is that evaporation rates are now high, so it doesn’t take long for things to dry out, especially if there is a long gap between rain events.

[StratoBendigo]

We might get a few mm in the morning I reckon.

Anyway, EC is all optimistic about next week. Sure to downgrade massively.

[Didjman]

That line developing on 128k radar is starting to look impressive - but how much is virga given the conditions? It appears to be the trough line.