Victoria: Significant rain event - November 4-10 2018

[hillybilly]

Complex sequence coming up with a strong upper trough and low to our west throwing a series of moist troughs across Victoria with potential for a cold outbreak late in the week. Looks mostly fine on Sunday, though perhaps the odds shower then widespread rain, showers and storms for Monday and Tuesday. Rain looks quite heavy in the northeast, northern slopes and possibly east central. Still a few days out so may well change.

A showery few days to follow.

Should see widespread 20-50mm falls for the week, but after a year of fizzer's perhaps we should expect half that

[Gordon]

Just enough to keep the grass green from today's falls so really hoping this one produces...

[StratoBendigo]

Incremental downgrades overnight - that's a worry.

Perhaps 20-30mm, but not surprised if ends up half that amount.

[Tassiedave]

How is the weather looking for the Melbourne Cup Tuesday afternoon?

[Skywalker]

Incremental downgrades overnight - that's a worry.

Perhaps 20-30mm, but not surprised if ends up half that amount.

Will no doubt be yet another fizzer. I have zero confidence in the weather atm. Only one thing will be guaranteed, more bloody wind!

[hillybilly]

Progs doing there typically jumps and downgrades. Still looks big for northeast Vic, with EC showing widespread 50-100mm. Rest of us wait to see how the details pan out. CMC, GFS and EC al have somewhere between 20 and 40mm for most of central Vic, but tight gradients so could be a good event or dribbles which save watering for a week.

Focus has shifted more towards Monday with showers on Tuesday tending to be more in the east, but guess that could change.

Currently got mizzle here in Walkerville with humid conditions. Bit of rain approaching the far west.

[JasmineStorm]

Hard to keep up with the constant changes in the models. EC sending a water bomb to the North East but EC has been ordinary of late for Vic. I thought this was interesting, Access R in the last 6 hours did a large shift westward for rain and storms up until Wednesday.

[Gordon]

The thunderstorm forecast issued about midday today looks okay?

[hillybilly]

Progs have come back quite well with solid 20 to 50mm for most areas. Looks best in the northeast, with central areas also looking to do well. Should see about 40mm in the Dandenongs looking at the latest Progs, but could do better if we get lucky with storms. Only need 600mm to our annual average so the more it rains the better

Storms look promising tomorrow. Excellent tropical indeed, decent convergence into the slow moving trough and good instability. Think any storms should be wet ones... so some potential for locally heavy falls tomorrow.

Solids falls just across the border now, so starting to take shape.

[StratoBendigo]

Storms are arcing up over South Australia atm. Lots of the right ingredients are there for us tomorrow, except that it's 2018 and it doesn't rain much...

That said, 20mm looks to be about on the money for us over the next two days. If it was most other years - double or triple it.

[snowfall]

Top of 22c here today and barely a breath of wind. Showers are now moving into central areas from the west. Really hoping we all get something decent over the next couple of days.

[hillybilly]

Nearing 4mm in FC and about the same at Walkerville. Looks like a rainy few days. Should add up nicely. Not huge but very welcome. Would like 50mm which is a chance but looks more like 30-40mm.

[StratoBendigo]

EC says 'fizzer' and just has 6mm for us now.

But there is light rain right now.

[Hawker]

Hhmmm doesn't look that convincing, though I think the better rain is meant to be later or overnight.
Ended up with 8 from the last bit, if we get the same with this one I will be surprised.

[JasmineStorm]

Latest BoM high resolution model Access C showing a good event in the next 36 hours for a large part of Vic. 1 mm to start things off here overnight.

[StratoBendigo]

BOM WATL only has 10-15mm in this morning's run. Sounds about right.

Access-C is well and truly on its own.

It is 2018, not 2010, so we shouldn't expect much really.

[Skywalker]

Going to be a wet one down here on the Island going by the radar. We are being lined up beautifully.

Meanwhile back in the pathetic western desert.....NOTHING!!!!

[Adam38]

A SWW has been issued for heavy rain.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml

[JasmineStorm]

I think that SWW tells you that the BoM rate there high resolution model Access C ahead of the global models

Having a closer look at the latest observations from the surface to upper levels of the troposphere, dew points in the Wimmera and South West have increased this morning, which should slowly creep eastward during today. Big plumes of moisture are now being detected on water vapour images in the mid levels before the trough in S.A, which is slowly moving eastward. Gravity wave clouds now appearing aloft in S.A signalling upper instability with the jet stream dipping down. Certainly has a look of localised downpours as the trough moves east

Model wise, the differences between the BoM access models 18z run and the global models 12z runs is moisture levels at 700 hPa later tonight and tomorrow morning. Access C and R are tapping into more moisture, elevating projected rainfall totals. Time will tell I suppose


Currently 19c with a 13c DP here.

[Wilko]

I think that SWW tells you that the BoM rate there high resolution model Access C ahead of the global models

Having a closer look at the latest observations from the surface to upper levels of the troposphere, dew points in the Wimmera and South West have increased this morning, which should slowly creep eastward during today. Big plumes of moisture are now being detected on water vapour images in the mid levels before the trough in S.A, which is slowly moving eastward. Gravity wave clouds now appearing aloft in S.A signalling upper instability with the jet stream dipping down. Certainly has a look of localised downpours as the trough moves east

Model wise, the differences between the BoM access models 18z run and the global models 12z runs is moisture levels at 700 hPa later tonight and tomorrow morning. Access C and R are tapping into more moisture, elevating projected rainfall totals. Time will tell I suppose


Currently 19c with a 13c DP here.

Awesome Jasmine
Session guessing very warm and humid here