Victoria: Mid Spring - Lows and Highs - Oct 3-11 2018

[StratoBendigo]

Some entertaining numbers being produced by EC for the Mallee next week:
https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victo ... /long.html

18Z GFS suggests big rains coming on Monday with 30mm+ for almost the entire State by Oct 16, with pockets of 100mm+.

[hillybilly]

Getting steady moderate rain here ATM. Whole system appears to be holding together quite well, with some heavier rain tucked in to our south, and looking to push up this arvo. Almost cracked 2mm today, which has tripled our month to date (only 120mm to go to average ).

Last night I was half expecting this to give us an almost fine day today with the rain hitting a brick wall near Geelong, so pleasantly surprised thus far.

[Gordon]

Rainband thickening our west as anticipated. Couple of models hold this together (German, Canadian) but GFS and EC kill it somewhere west of Geelong. Generally, wouldn’t bet against EC, but can hope

So you did pick the possibility HB, well done! Up to 4mm here and actual rain that's visible to the naked eye .

[StratoBendigo]

Well there's a brick wall between the clouds and the ground here. Almost anything that might be falling is evaporating well before it hits the ground. So dry and the forecast models aren't picking it.

[snowfall]

More than I was expecting here as well. It hasn't stopped all day. It's mostly light to moderate, but has put 5.2mm in the gauge so far.

[Gordon]

Meanwhile the rain direction(s) on the Melbourne radar are plain weird - seems to moving almost randomly, except for the edge coming up from the south-west.

Up to 6mm now and I see a SWW for Damaging Winds is up for tomorrow.

[Adam38]

Some quite heavy steady rain here.

[Macedonian]

14mm at Macedon since 9am.
It is hammering down here. Calm but very dark.
A glorious afternoon and a lot nicer temp than yesterdays early warmth.

[occluded]

After light rubbish for much of the day it finally started raining properly (at work in Box Hill) about half an hour ago.

[StratoBendigo]

Well the wind is blowing from the South-east now hence zero rain here. The forecast models get it wrong every time this happens. Every time.

[Macedonian]

Jeez! Up to 22mm now at work in Macedon. Water running everywhere.

[Macedonian]

Jeez! Up to 22mm now at work in Macedon. Water running everywhere.

It was up to 27mm at work when i left at 4.30pm.
Ive had 23mm at home. Still hammering down now. Just exactly what was needed.

[JasmineStorm]

18mm so far. Tormenting system for the models and those missing out.

850 hPa convergence zone stretching from the Wimmera to the Yarra Valley. It's squeezing north eastward and still lots of water vapour in the mid levels around it for the moment.

[tonycynic]

Must have been a leaf blocking the Coldstream gauge, rain here all day and it just shot up from 3mm to almost 15mm in half an hour. Lawn is loving it. Looks like next week has dried up though as expected.

[StratoBendigo]

An interesting convergence line to our SW near Castlemaine is slowly edging North. Hopefully it holds...

[Adam38]

Have had a lovely 11mm of steady rain, the best fall I’ve had in months and double what I recorded
for the month of September.

[snowfall]

Constant rain all day here giving 16.6mm since this morning. Takes us up to 18.5mm for the event, which is very welcome. Still raining with thick fog, but should be clearing fairly soon.

[JasmineStorm]

IMO, we have something big brewing next week. It’s a Southern Hemisphere version of the Omega block and it’s locking in an upper low combined with a tropical fed atmospheric river. The subtropical jet is being projected to be displaced. Multiday storm outbreaks next week for Victoria if it keeps lining up

[hillybilly]

Just shy of 8mm for us today. Split the difference between the wettest and driest models. Quite odd that EC was probably the worst model this time round for totals for much of Vic. It’s the best model, so not often it “fails” like this

Awesome to see those heavier falls around the southern slopes of the central ranges, and now spreading into the east. Now hoping the next system brewing for the weekend delivers. Time for a new thread? Looks very promising, though bit of spread with GFS, UK and Canadian model bring the system through quicker, while EC and the German model tends to hold it back.

[Macedonian]

Mount Macedon top scored with 34mm!
I was hoping for 6 or 7 so this has been a big surprise.