Victoria: Mid Spring - Lows and Highs - Oct 3-11 2018

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JasmineStorm
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Victoria: Mid Spring - Lows and Highs - Oct 3-11 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:49 pm

Thought I might as well slip in a date range with the weather pattern showing signs of change. An initial trough will move through on Wednesday with some instability through central areas before amplifying on the NE Ranges and becoming part of a rain event for large parts of NSW. High pressure will follow but there are signs of an decent upper low moving into Victoria early to mid next week. Let the downgrades and upgrades begin :)
Last edited by JasmineStorm on Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

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hillybilly
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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:58 pm

Thanks for the thread Jasmine. After my last few efforts I didn’t want to jinx the week ahead :?

Warm day here today with a few spitty showers. Hoping for a few mms tomorrow, but timing of the tough is not good for central areas, too early so the convection will likely all fire in northeast and eastern areas.

Looking a bit thundery on the weekend, and next week looks very wet in EC and the new GFS model. Too early to get excited :?

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by QldTwister » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:22 pm

21c 9pm at night def spring out there

Big pattern change last 2 weeks no fronts any more, all troughs and cut off lows

No heat waves or bush fires in the coming few weeks.

Adel getting nice storm right now

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:09 am

Zilch overnight. Most odd get front after front in spring with basically no rain. More like January or February.

Should be some showers and storms out east today, and perhaps a little light stuff near the coast. Thundery next week (probably).

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by snowfall » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:38 am

Nothing here either. It was the warmest night in quite some time though, with a minimum of 14c.

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by QldTwister » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:46 pm

Nice storms in NSW and Showers in NE VIc

Storms might scrape Mildura and the Murray later today

Cool cloudly here but Dry

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:29 pm

Those cells in the Riverina are showing some nice rotation :) https://www.facebook.com/CulcairnSES/vi ... 372761374/

EC & UKMet are putting that upper low next week over the S.A border around -20c at 500 hPa. I've seen water bombs get triggered with these set ups, if it gets a converging moisture feed from the NW and NE. EC is starting to hint this.

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by Tassiedave » Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:35 pm

Max Temps in Tas today: Eddystone Pt. 22.8, St Helens 22.0, Launceston 21.5, Devonport 21.4, Friendly Beaches 19.2, Hobart 17.0

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:09 pm

Picked up a mm of mizzle this afternoon. Thick hill fog atm.

Good to see a bit in the far northwest (Mildura is currently having a record dry year) and northeast.

EC, GFS, GFS-V3 and CMC starting to get rather excited about next week :D EC has been the most consistent and earliest onto the developing low so hopefully it comes through.

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:44 am

Nice drop for western areas of NSW. Broken Hill's 34mm should settle the dust for now. Albury 24mm.

The expected daily downgrades and upgrades is well underway from the models for next week as the position of the upper low wobbles around, taking the surface low with it.

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:42 am

Nice drop for western areas of NSW. Broken Hill's 34mm should settle the dust for now. Albury 24mm.
Broken Hill got more rain in 10 minutes (29mm) than it has seen in the previous 9 months (24mm). They were running driest year on record. The YTD total is still dismal, but much better :?

GFS3 and CMC looking good for next week. EC synoptics similar but latest run has pulled the rain to mostly north of the divide. Would guess a wiggle, at this stage. The EC ensemble show a big range of outcomes, so very uncertain as to what the detail will be :(

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by flyfisher » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:16 am

The charts are looking rather wet and stormy next week - right on que for my annual fishing trip. My last fishing trip was early December 2017 and we all know what happened then.

So it seems I just have to make some outdoor plans to bring on rain :D

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by Gordon » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:52 am

flyfisher wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:16 am
So it seems I just have to make some outdoor plans to bring on rain :D
Good of you to take one for the team flyfisher :); we could certainly do with some wet weather here now. Anyway, depending on your trip location, a bit of rain may help the fishing?

1.5mm in drizzly showers here overnight.

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by mick » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:43 pm

WA keeps pinching our rain, the current map, is pretty unusual looking.

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by Gordon » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:43 pm

The latest 'drought map' from BOM for the period April-September clearly shows the hotspot east of Melbourne CBD; remarkably focussed :( :

Image

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:16 am

Certainly a drought hot spot there Gordon. We have been fortunate up here, it’s below average but nowhere near a drought so far. September was the first real dry month for the southern wet season.

Cool with a south easterly today, looks like a nice warm weekend ahead.

Nice drop for eastern parts NSW with that inland low. Lots of 50 to 80mm west of Sydney. with near 50mm for Sydney.

There has been an eastward trend by the models for next week’s upper and surface low’s with most quite aligned until the latest 18z run which GFS and Icon has dragged back west. More uncertainty now than 24 hours ago. Here is the latest on GFS for Wednesday morning, an upper tropospheric polar injection which can be explosive if they line up with moisture from the North :)
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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:58 pm

The BoM's severe weather department will be getting sweaty palms after the 00z runs today. Icon, Access, GFS, CMC and UkMet all have their different volatile scenario's for certain areas of Vic. EC is not really onboard and has the high ridging in quite quickly.

Very hard to read at the moment, needs another 24 hours I think but at least it's a chance for once :)

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by hillybilly » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:08 pm

Icon, Access, GFS, CMC and UkMet all have their different volatile scenario's for certain areas of Vic. EC is not really onboard and has the high ridging in quite quickly.
Models are seriously spraying for next week, and the ensemble members for individual models are spraying. EC this morning had totals ranging from ~0 to ~50mm+ for Melbourne.

Really need this one to deliver, but just not confident.

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:29 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:08 pm
Icon, Access, GFS, CMC and UkMet all have their different volatile scenario's for certain areas of Vic. EC is not really onboard and has the high ridging in quite quickly.
Models are seriously spraying for next week, and the ensemble members for individual models are spraying. EC this morning had totals ranging from ~0 to ~50mm+ for Melbourne.

Really need this one to deliver, but just not confident.
Yes, low confidence indeed as they are all different scenarios. EC is the best in the world at picking the strength of a ridge, which lessens my enthusiasm for the moment

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Re: Mid Spring: lows and highs Oct 3-13

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:01 am

EC has 15mm for us on Tuesday, and more on Oct 14-15.

For the crops that are still alive, some finishing rain perhaps?

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