Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

VIC - Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14 2018

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

VIC - Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Series of fast moving fronts the next week, with mild air sweeping down ahead of each of them. First is on Sunday, second late Tuesday then third around late Friday. Very mild to warm Tuesday and again around Friday. Could well approach early season records, though probably fall just short (Melbourne early season record is 26.8C).

Not a lot of rain, just the odd shower at this stage with systems moisture starved.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: August 9-14

Post by hillybilly »

A mild 12C in FC yesterday with a mix of sun and cloud. Today looks similarly mild, but more cloud and maybe a shower.

Warm day on Tuesday. 850Ts get to around 12C over Melbourne and near 15C in the northwest. Will see a run at 30C in Mildura etc and Melbourne and surrounds likely to see locally near 25C. Windy and dry so will start to sap the moisture :(

Not really seeing meaningful rain in the next ten days. Something might sneak up, but fronts are flattening and tending to lack moisture and cyclonic curvature.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: August 9-14

Post by hillybilly »

12C here again today. Cloudy and quite cloudy with warm air advection kicking in around the incoming high. Got a couple of showers, with nearly a mm.

Couple of mild to perhaps warm ones coming up. Spiking into the 30s around the northwest so almost summer like :?
Q
QldTwister
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 424
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: August 9-14

Post by QldTwister »

Think you mean September in the title lol.

Yeah nice warm week well at least 2 days and Friday

Def dry 2 weeks or so everyone but tassie inland going to roast next week as upper high builds as too 850hpa warm pool over the country

Down here so protected and looking forward to Tuesday warm sunny windy love it.
Bring on the heat and stroms
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly »

Think you mean September in the title lol.
Ha, fixed :)

Misty drizzle here this morning. Nothing in the gauge.

Geez tomorrow looks warm. 850Ts spike to 14-15C over Melbourne late arvo. In theory that could see a run at 30C, but looks like hottest air misses the peak solar heating so timing not quite there.

Not much proper rain in the outlook.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly »

Not that warm today in the end with cloud hanging around. Scrapped up to 12.2C here late arvo.

Tomorrow looks warm and windy.

EC trying to throw up some seriously cold air for Saturday into Sunday. Current run has snow showers to about 500m. Not a lot of precip, but something. Waiting to see if it sticks ;)
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Gordon »

hillybilly wrote: Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:35 pm EC trying to throw up some seriously cold air for Saturday into Sunday. Current run has snow showers to about 500m. Not a lot of precip, but something. Waiting to see if it sticks ;)
The spring rollercoaster... Still on the cool side up here so looking forward to at least some warmth (in moderation)!
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by stevco123 »

Definitely spring weather. Was between 4 and 6 degrees in the Cranbourne/Skye area when i left for work at 7am, but it's 12 in Scoresby.

Nice day ahead. Nothing too exceptional and perfect. Could get a bit blowy later however
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
User avatar
Didjman
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2097
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Didjman »

temp here 12c after min of 9, wind to 31klm already.
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2802
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just hit 20 degC for the first time since May.

This weekend looks like it's back to winter: -4c at 850HPa is pretty chilly.
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Skywalker »

The garbage northerly winds are back after perfect calm conditions yesterday. :x
This period of sustained winds will really accelerate the drying process out here in the western desert, especially with no proper rain in sight.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
A
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 483
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Adam38 »

My lawns have really browned off today and have become crunchy underfoot in spots...
I have never seen that in September before...
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly »

Warmest air coming late today so missed the peak solar heating. Nice day around Melbourne though winds are nasty. Peaked at 17.4C here so a degree or two cooler than I was expecting. 31C just across the border in SA, but looks like Vic peaked at 29.9C. Really dry air through the Wimmera and Malle which will not be good for the crops :(

Shower or two tonight, but not expecting more than a mm or so.
My lawns have really browned off today and have become crunchy underfoot in spots...
Not surprised. This dry is creeping and will hit in a hurry with the warmer weather :?
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly »

Front came through but not a drop of rain. That’s a worry. I expect summer fronts to be rain free at times but fronts in the middle of spring :roll: Dew point is stuck near 0C so dry air.

Stronger front showing up for Saturday, but will again be moisture starved.
User avatar
mick
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1453
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:45 pm
Location: Mid North SA Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by mick »

D
Dane
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1659
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by Dane »

Thanks Mick. Good link.
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by JasmineStorm »

GFS 00Z showing the coldest 500 hPa temp this year over central areas and snowing in Hamilton Saturday afternoon. Brutal cold shot if it verifies. Moisture @700 hPa has also upgraded in the last 24 hours.
Attachments
GFS 1209 00Z for 15 Sept.jpg
GFS 1209 00Z for 15 Sept.jpg (171.4 KiB) Viewed 8399 times
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly »

Cool to mild mostly sunny one in FC with a max of 12C.

Starting to get mildly interested in Saturday though would like EC to come back on board. Looks cold, but not so sure on precip. Gfs and CMC are producing decent rain in southern and mountain areas, but not EC (on the latest run). The temperature difference across the front is quite stunning with 850Ts in the mid to high teens on one side and around -4 to -5C on the other side.

Wonder if we could see some obscure stats for difference between max and min on consecutive days in parts of NSW and eastern Vic :?
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by hillybilly »

Both EC and GFS showing quite an upgrade for the weekend. The models both have 850Ts falling to around -5 to -6C during the evening. Of course, the models might decide to back off...

The September record for Melbourne appears to be -5.6C in 1959. Of course, if there isn't a balloon flight at the time of the coldest air, then we won't have an observation.

I do wonder if we could see some spectacular temperature differences between the Saturday maximum and Sunday minimum in eastern Victoria and southern NSW (think of it as the DTR offset by half a day).

Unfortunately, I'm away on Saturday so won't get to see it :(
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Mild, windy with the odd shower: September 9-14

Post by JasmineStorm »

Access R has dropped a 524 thickness bubble over eastern parts of Melbourne, the Dandenong's and Yarra Valley on Saturday evening with moisture at 700 hPa. That would put snow in places like Monbulk if it verifies.

EC has the upper trough getting a polar injection from 70 degrees south, over the Antartic continent.

It seems like this is the coldest air to hit Victoria since 2016 if the models are correct.
Attachments
EC 1309 00Z.jpg
EC 1309 00Z.jpg (431.09 KiB) Viewed 8175 times
Locked