Wilko wrote: ↑Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:05 pm
Winds ramping up here on a big scale
Jasmine .. HB do you know when approximately when to expect the worst winds
Between now and 4pm winds over Melbourne @850 hPa (1,500m) will be between 90 to 130 km/h. This is the period of the most damaging gusts as they mix downward.
Just a gentle breeze down at Seaspray, 50k or so. We get 100k all the time but the closest station is Sale and theres a hill in between..
The Barracouda Platform WS seems to have vanished from the BOM radar.
We have been having these cloud formations all day.
Looks good for a cold, wet and windy 36 hours. Bit of an upgrade on the progs for rainfall, with a solid rainband then a cold unstable showery arvo/evening tomorrow. Should see quite well organised bands of showers/storms in the cold air.
850Ts get to about -4C (perhaps a little above or a little below). Touch and go for flurries in the Dandenongs. Moisture looks ok with the cold air, but not great.
Access C 06Z run just projected snow on the Dandenongs to around 500m early Sunday morning when the coldest trough comes through.
Latest access has 850Ts dipping to about -4.5C. That would typically put snow flurries down to about 400m. Moisture doesn’t look that great. Is quite westerly when the coldest air comes through, but is the odd shower showing up so not completely dry.
Totals pulling up nicely in the southwest and back in SA. One of the best looking systems this year on the radar
Wind picking up here as the wind change approaches. It looks to be in the middle of the Bay atm. Quite remarkable dew point gradient across it. Anticipating it will hit here with a fog bank ahead of the rain
Just started raining here. Moderate rate and almost calm. Taken a couple of hours longer to get here than I was expecting so bit worried this one is destined to under perform again
Systems gone missing for much of western Victoria. Bumper falls along the coast out there, but surprised to see only a mm or two for much of the Wimmera and Mallee. System flared quite dramatically when it hit eastern SA so must have been something quite subtle in the dynamics which came into phase and then equally quick disappeared. Looking at the uppers the jet seems to be lifting north which weakened the upper divergence.
Showery 24 hours after this rainband, and quite good warm air advection later tomorrow with the swly so should see a decent burst of drizzly stuff. 850Ts continue to show marginal snow potential here. They dip to about -4C which is about the cut off for snow here. Once again the stupid trend is not our friend... as a degree cooler and we’d be on for a good snow event
These westerlies look like going for another ten days. Quite spring like next week with temps on a roller coaster with the passage of multiple fronts
hillybilly wrote: ↑Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:04 am
850Ts continue to show marginal snow potential here. They dip to about -4C which is about the cut off for snow here. Once again the stupid trend is not our friend... as a degree cooler and we’d be on for a good snow event
The BOM have suggested possible snow in the Dandenongs this evening, so you may be in luck!
Been away the last week but nice to come home to another rainband - 6.5mm overnight brings us to 41mm mtd, so continuing the wet winter trend for our (very fortunate) area.
Amazing snow in the Snowy Mountains where I've just been; friend who runs a ski hire business for Selwyn (a lower elevation resort) is very happy. He says the 'damaged skis/ dirty pants and coats' index has been as low as it gets this season with simply no days when the cover has been light enough for the punters to hit rocks or mud. Will post some lower level snow pics when I get a chance.
Rain set in here and mounting nicely. 4mm so far. Radar looks quite good atm.
Amazing snow in the Snowy Mountains where I've just been; friend who runs a ski hire business for Selwyn (a lower elevation resort) is very happy. He says the 'damaged skis/ dirty pants and coats' index has been as low as it gets this season with simply no days when the cover has been light enough for the punters to hit rocks or mud. Will post some lower level snow pics when I get a chance.
It’s been a quite remarkable season. Overall temps have been quite warm for most of OZ the last few months, but these persistent fairly dry westerlies have create almost normal temps over the Snowy Mountains and nearby areas. I had anticipated a pretty ordinary season given how dry and warm autumn had been Low level snow has been pretty lean with only patchy cover at Donna Buang and Lake Mt going almost bare a few time, but above about 1400m being persistent
hillybilly wrote: ↑Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:45 am
Rain set in here and mounting nicely. 4mm so far. Radar looks quite good atm.
Amazing snow in the Snowy Mountains where I've just been; friend who runs a ski hire business for Selwyn (a lower elevation resort) is very happy. He says the 'damaged skis/ dirty pants and coats' index has been as low as it gets this season with simply no days when the cover has been light enough for the punters to hit rocks or mud. Will post some lower level snow pics when I get a chance.
It’s been a quite remarkable season. Overall temps have been quite warm for most of OZ the last few months, but these persistent fairly dry westerlies have create almost normal temps over the Snowy Mountains and nearby areas. I had anticipated a pretty ordinary season given how dry and warm autumn had been Low level snow has been pretty lean with only patchy cover at Donna Buang and Lake Mt going almost bare a few time, but above about 1400m being persistent
All that colder than normal water South of Java in the Indian Ocean has been the biggest influence this winter IMO.
We've only had 1 mm so far this morning. it seems most of the moisture has already been sucked out of it. Although good to see Horsham doing OK with 8mm overnight.