Looks like a long lived sequence of fronts associated with a strong long wave trough in the bight. First one due on Friday, followed by another late Sunday, then continuing through the next week. Temperatures start out quite mild, but cool over time. Winds look very strong again, particularly around Friday and then around Sunday.
Rain totals should add up. GFS has widespread 25-50mm so potential for one of the better falls in recent months
There is a little bit of moisture on the Sat pic SW of the top end. It appears to be mainly surface but you never know and more might get dragged into this front which is going to extend right up there.
Progs more or less holding which is good. Winds picking up today and quite mild (though plenty of wind chill). Rain increasing tomorrow. Doesn’t look that good for south central (with a solid rain shadow) and Gippsland looks like missing out again. Could well be some dust ahead of it for northern areas, with plenty of warnings out. Decent falls on the northern slopes and northeast.
Weekend puts us back in nwly flow and uppers warm with 850Ts making a run at 10C on Sunday. Winds look nasty. Looks like this then repeats every couple of days til late next week
Hard to pick snow. Looks like snow rain snow rain snow rain snow to me. What the final count will be is anyone’s guess. I’m thinking spots like Lake Mt will struggle but places like Mt Hotham could do quite well.
Slightly off topic, but an article in the local paper quoted BOM as saying the July just gone was Ballarat's windiest in 20 years.
Yep, been a really windy month. Unusual by recent standards. It explains (partly) which the beaches have been battered (our winds have been in decline which has offset rising water levels, so when winds spike you suffer a lot of erosion). The wind generation graphs shows the frequent blows really clearly - https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2018/july .
The windfarms out west are already approaching 100% so another blowy day in the making
Wind has really picked up here. Will be another wild night. I’m no great fan of windy weather either, but seems we’ll be getting quite a lot of wind over the next week.
Off topic but still interesting that they say potentially a microburst knocked down that plane in Mexico. It was only a few metres off the ground too. Scary stuff.
Somehow we seem to have escaped the worst of the wind so far; not a bad night up here. No doubt that will soon change but the fewer hours of damaging wind, the better.