VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-23 2018

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hillybilly
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VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-23 2018

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:24 am

Strong longwave trough for the week ahead will throw a sequence of fronts across Victoria. Looks like a front a day, with showers and local storms possible with each. The link to the tropics is poor so not widespread rain, but showers should add up in southern and mountain areas. The plains west of Melbourne and northwest will struggle.

Temps looks quite mild for mid July with 850Ts mainly above 0C (so low to mid teens on the flats) but will drop lower later on Tuesday and around Friday.

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by stevco123 » Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:30 pm

Not a very cold winter so far with the lack of fronts.

I always look forward to late winter as that's when fronts are traditionally strongest but we'll see what this winter throws at us.
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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:35 pm

All pretty stock standard winter so far up here. A few -3 to 4c’s in the last week, around 20mm for July, a bit of sleet thrown in the mix. Water tanks and dam doing well.

EC and GEFS ensembles have brilliantly nailed the weather pattern change @500 hPa and the stratospheric levels, 2 weeks out at the end of June. http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 06#p105606

Rossby wave is now moving east right on cue. A little more Antarctic spice in the mix later this week :)
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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by hillybilly » Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:49 pm

EC showing a bit of an upgrade for the week ahead, while GFS has had a downgrade. Looks to me like a 20-30mm sequence here, but hoping for a bit more.

Another sub 8C max here today (7.9C) with a feral wind which made it feel much colder. Btw some nasty low dew point ahead of this system. DPs into the negatives in NW and below -5C in some spots across the border. The almost El Niño and positive IOD type pattern is starting to sap the tropical moisture.
All pretty stock standard winter so far up here. A few -3 to 4c’s in the last week, around 20mm for July, a bit of sleet thrown in the mix. Water tanks and dam doing well.
Been a really dull one here. About 1C above average (which is pretty cool nowadays) but no really cold days or nights. The 850Ts have barely got below -3C) so frosts have been very slight and we’ve only had a tiny bit of sleet. Rains not too bad, but it looks dry with only dribbles in the creeks thanks to the very dry autumn. Had a lot of nice sunny days which have made winter feel a lot milder than it has been.

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by Skywalker » Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:38 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:24 am
The plains west of Melbourne and northwest will struggle.
:roll: :cussing:

Nothing exciting to look forward to other than more bloody wind.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by hillybilly » Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:19 am

Bit of a shock heading off to work this morning with cold rain, 4C and a DP of 1C. Felt like a day skiing Mount Buller :D 0.6mm in the gauge to start the thread.

Unfortunately the dry air is catching most the rain before it reaches the surface and there is a fair bit of bright banding, so radar is substantially over reading.

Just the odd shower today with a cold blustery NW'ly wind. Tomorrow's winds are starting to look quite nasty with 850hPa winds above 60 knots.

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by dazrain » Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:55 am

Just light showers here in Brighton East to settle the dust and make a few small puddles.

btw - am I able to change my username? I would prefer one that is easier to spell!

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by Tassiedave » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:19 am

Rainfall in Tas since 9 am yesterday: Mt Barrow 11 mm, Scottsdale 9.6 mm, Devonport 8.6 mm, Low Head 5.4 mm, Sheffield 4.8 mm, Launceston 3.4 mm

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by Blackie » Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:40 am

Just under 1mm here in Mansfield this morning with a temp of only 4c. Cold weekend with heavy frosts.

It's remarkably dry up here too for mid July. Only 9mm so far (LTA 74mm).

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by Macedonian » Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:03 pm

Temps staying stubbornly low in the Central Highlands today.
Midday and 3.3C in Trentham, 2.6C at Hesket and 2.2C at my place on Mt Macedon.

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by hillybilly » Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:55 pm

Midday and 3.3C in Trentham, 2.6C at Hesket and 2.2C at my place on Mt Macedon.
Eek... those are nasty numbers (with all the wind about as well). We maxed out at 7.4C in FC at 560m so definitely wintery. No more rain to report.

Cracker of a front for tomorrow with nasty winds and a band of showers. That said the system is moisture starved so won't be a lot of rain with it. Will also be a substantial event on the coast with large waves (becoming very large for Bass Strait as the week goes on) and very high water levels tomorrow arvo (and again on Thursday).

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by Macedonian » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:45 pm

Not nasty at all :) Good wintry fun :)

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Re: Sequence of fronts:July 16-24

Post by Jake Smethurst » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:51 pm

Cumulonimbus wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:55 am
btw - am I able to change my username? I would prefer one that is easier to spell!
If you send me a PM with your request I'll see what I can do :)
Jake - Site Admin/Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:31 am

Big vertical temperature differences between 850 and 500 hPa this afternoon and evening in central areas. Access R showing above 55 this evening on the 12z run. If that verifies, there could be an angry squall line with a good chance of sparks.
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Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Post by hillybilly » Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:22 am

Milder morning in FC but a squally NWly wind. Looks and feels like a big feature of today will be the winds ahead of the front. Looks like a punchy band of showers and storms on the front, with EC and GFS showing locally 10-20mm.

This sequence is going to throw up some really large waves in Bass Strait going above 8m of the southwest coast Image

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Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:39 am

Rain since 9 am Mon: Mt Read 49 mm, Mt Victoria 28 mm, Strahan 26 mm, Mt Barrow 26 mm, Sheffield 10 mm, Launceston 4.4 mm, Ross 2.2 mm, Hobart 0 mm

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Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:03 am

No wind, clear skies, and a severe frost here this morning. Currently -1degC. Weird to think we'll be battered with gales this afternoon/evening.

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Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Post by Gordon » Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:47 am

Hasn't calmed off much at all here, and 50km/h gusts for the last couple of hours.

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Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Post by Macedonian » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:00 am

Very windy here last night but i still got a frost. How does that work?

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Re: VICTORIA - Sequence of fronts: July 16-24 2018

Post by Wilko » Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:07 am

The wind is picking up rapidly now
There will be quite a bit of damage with the trees so stressed from the drought

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