Another day of dry in FC. It's cooler at the moment, but as we close in on 7 weeks without rain things are just baking off. Starting to see lots of the trees on the northwest slopes have leaves die now. They don't turn brown - they just simply die on the branches while remaining green. This usually only happens during intense heatwaves
The understorey of Ferns and small trees is seeing widespread die back. Watching this in previous years some of the trees will make it through, but some will die. The upshot is the thinning of our forest through intense water/heat stress events continues
This flash dry is now running neck-and-neck with Jan/Feb 2009 (some spots worse, some spots less bad) so it's very significant.
Progs seem to be pretty settled on the synoptics. Warmer and windier on Saturday, but most areas don't get too toastie. Far northwest will race towards 40C, but southern areas look more like low 30s. Front Sunday morning after a warm/hot windy night.
Rainband just behind the front. This is where the models disagree with totals ranging widely. GFS is keen on widespread 10-20mm, EC and CMC more like 5-10mm. Secondary front on Monday could drop a few more mm's. Rain tends to peak in western areas, and then near the higher Yarra Ranges.
Really hoping this one delivers, as I'm so so sick of watering and watching our usually green and lush forests bakes like this.