VIC: Jan 9-13 2018 - Warm to Hot with a thundery trough and change

[hillybilly]

Had a couple of short sharp showers in FC this morning. 1mm so far. Radar is very lumpy, so clearly convection firing in the mid-levels.

EDIT> 2mm now. Means I've tripled my January total this morning

[Skywalker]

Wet morning down here on the island with steady moderate rain currently falling outside. Somehow managed to sneak in the morning walk with the dog. The princes Kelpie was obviously not impressed with getting slightly wet as she's busy washing herself outside.

Dry as a bone back in the pathetic western desert going by the radar, no surprises there.

[Amandagorural]

First time poster here

Had 1.8 mm so far on the Bellarine.
Really hoping for not too much rain tomorrow as we have the Portarlington Mussel Festival. We run the local pub so the weather will either help us out with people escaping the rain or hinder, with people completely cancelling plans to come out. It is usually the biggest single day of the year for us so fingers crossed!
The area really needs though

[stevco123]

Just read an article in the Herald Sun where they quoted the BoM as saying the most severe storms should be from a line from Lilydale to Cranbourne, and eastwards.

That supports the chart that was posted here yesterday (forgot who posted it).

I think however, that there is way too much cloud for anything proper to get going.

And then again, we are in a La Nina

[Didjman]

29/19 here so pretty tropical. Have a cloud clearing overhead but no real convection starting as yet. A few sparks around Wang at top end of that north south line (Wang to the 'Prom).
Wind gusting to 40klm/hr here.

[JasmineStorm]

Big miss overnight by the BoM and EC on the tropical cyclone. Took a sharp left turn into the coast and it’s assisting our set up a little more now. GFS picked it and left egg on the face of every other model and the BoM, as they all had it coming in tomorrow as a cat 3 further down the coast.

25c and a 20c dew point here. Some big dew points in Macedon Ranges ATM. Geelong a nice drop of rain and near 10mm already. Welcome on board Amandagorural

Not easy to pick these set ups with all the clouds fluffing round as HB and Stevco mentioned. Still looks like parts of central and east will get some cloud breaks and energy. 60 Knots at 700 hPa will come into central areas soon, so if cells grow, they are going to launch like missiles and be on you before you know it. It will also allow cells to have longer lives.

Might just sit back now with a Friday G&T and let mother nature get on with it

My 2 cents worth on the 11am sat pic

[stevco123]

Incoming rainband. I'd say severe storm chances have greatly reduced. May be some embedded storms.

At least the rain looks promising.

I think broad 20+mm today, and followup tomorrow.

[Jake Smethurst]

Had work this morning at 6am. Took a break at around 10am, my goodness it was very muggy, and still is as this band of rain begins to move over the area. Have managed to receive a few heavy downbursts last hour or so, but apart from that it has just been spitty rain. I swear I heard one clap of thunder on the leading edge of the band a few moments ago. The risk for Melbourne isn't over yet, however it is diminishing as this band moves through and the cloud thickens up. The eastern parts look like the main area of play for today.

EDIT: And welcome to the forum Amandagorural, it's great to have you here!

VICTORIA THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
For Friday the 12th January 2018

Very humid airmass across Victoria ahead of a trough of low pressure and an approaching frontal system. The trough will move through the state during the day, with thunderstorm activity likely to form on and east of this trough this afternoon and evening. They are likely through central and eastern areas, where severe activity (large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding) is also possible. The eastern parts of the state in particular will face the worst thunderstorm conditions; supercells are possible in this area. Only a slight risk for southwest areas where the trough is generally already moving through. Melbourne is in with a relatively good risk today for a thunderstorm. The inhibiting factor will be cloud cover.

[occluded]

Hammering down in the CBD that past five minutes from that rainband.

[stevco123]

130mm/h rain rate at home. 7mm so far.

[JasmineStorm]

Nice rate stevco. Certainly looks like its rumbling in Melbourne's SE atm

[Didjman]

28/20 here and the rain is slipping past here.

[stevco123]

12mm here.

[Dane]

6.8mm's here so far and the rain has stopped for now.
Getting quite a few rumbles mostly to the east of me now.
Doubt if we will get more thunder today once this clears away.
Certainly no severe storms in this neck of the woods anyway.

[hillybilly]

Both bands faded through the eastern burbs. Got 0.2mm from the first and 0.2mm from the second. Pretty unusual for bands of showers/storms to do that

2.5mm for the day so far.

As expected the system is a mess with rain/showers and the odd storm just not really getting organised. Progs have this continuing next 48 hours with patchy showers/rain.

[Skywalker]

3.3mm here so far & currently sitting on 22c.

Yet another storm fizzer for me.

[Gordon]

4.5mm here so far. Our most rain in a day since 8 December so better than nothing I suppose.

Surface wind is now southerly and a cool 14C, although the light rain is still coming in from the north-west.

[hillybilly]

4.5mm here so far. Our most rain in a day since 8 December so better than nothing I suppose.

Cripes, didn't realise it had been that dry for you. We've had about 70mm in that same period, but still feels quite dry now with the grass browning.

Up to 3.6mm in FC now. Just dribbling down. All the models keen on it picking up in the next few hours. There is a band of showers hiding on the west coast between the radars which I assume is what should come in to play.

Good cold front for tomorrow, with lots of showers in the south from middle of the day.

So far thinking this has underperformed. Huge tropical infeed but feeble uplift and lack of breaks in cloud have limited both general rain and also storms.

[Gordon]

4.5mm here so far. Our most rain in a day since 8 December so better than nothing I suppose.

Cripes, didn't realise it had been that dry for you. We've had about 70mm in that same period, but still feels quite dry now with the grass browning.

It's like a switch has been flicked here. After that somewhat disappointing system at the start of December (by comparison to the deluges just east) the pattern has stubbornly continued. http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/fo ... 08#p103608

Hoping for a few more mm today and maybe tomorrow.

[Skywalker]

4.5mm here so far. Our most rain in a day since 8 December so better than nothing I suppose.

Cripes, didn't realise it had been that dry for you.

Well it does pay to look beyond the eastern side of Melbourne occasionally HB.

Rain still falling down here, up to 6.6mm now. For some reason I thought we had more than that, just goes to show how light & patchy it's been in general.