Looks to be a decent system for this upcoming Thursday. East Coast of Aus will do well earlier this week and VIC's turn will come later in the week. Storms look a good chance. Thoughts?
Latest runs are a bit messy. EC, GFS and CMC tending to slide the low south of Victoria, then putting us in a shower swly. A second low then develops in the Tasman Sea. Rain doesn't look great at this stake, but could increase quickly if the low edges north.
Maximum temperatures in Tasmania today included St Helens 22.8, Friendly Beaches 21.1, Hobart 20.0, Launceston 18.6, Devonport 18.1
The ACCESS model has good prospects for rain in North East Tasmania on Saturday. GFS is not so good.
Progs not much changes. Low on track, but looks like it will tap little moisture so the northerly component will be mostly dry. The southerly component looks showery, but mostly limited to southern parts. This pattern has repeated over and over the past couple of months.
The Dandenongs and Gippsland could do OK, but otherwise doesn't really look that good
Been away on a 13,000km roadtrip for the past 3 weeks, ironic that I go up north to get some heat and we break our all time September heat record while I'm away Some impressive diurnal variation today, down to 1 degree here overnight, and it's currently 15 degrees on the way to 23 this afternoon.
Btw, since I last updated our nights below 0 count on September 1, we've had 5 more, bringing us up to 39 in total for this calendar year. That's surely gotta be getting close to some kind of record for this area.
Cripes Harley, I'm thinking my 5,000km trips a big one Unlike most people I know I enjoy long drives (well apart from the road works and speed cameras all the way up the M1 which could fry your licence and bankrupt you were it not for cruise control ).
Progs still similar. Decent looking low but moisture ahead of it is lacking. Be little to no rain ahead of the southerly part. Progs dropping locally 10-20mm, but mostly only a couple of mms. Hoping we get a decent fall in FC as its drying out quickly which is not good for the summer ahead.
Lots of virga on the radar but not much rain. Not expecting much today - be surprised if we score a single mm. As always, hope to be proved wrong
A few showers tomorrow morning, but mainly affecting southern areas east of Melbourne.
Turning into a longer dry spell with it nealy three weeks since the last decent fall.
Sunday's system does look somewhat better, with decent falls showing up for eastern areas. Could be quite unstable, with moisture over the inland potentially lining us up.
Pretty mild and overcast at the moment. Been a few spits but as DJ said not expecting much today.
I wonder when we will get the Laverton radar back, says early October but knowing the BOM
we will be lucky to have it back before the end of the month.
Yes hurry up please. Hating what is effectively a 'blind' Broadmeadows radar for us - hard to have an outdoor weather-dependant job and no decent radar - back to the 1980s
Absolute nonsense that it's 'almost as good' using Meteye and satellite - a very urban-centric take, to put it politely!
Meanwhile, we've had a few mm from a band of steady rain this morning. Away from the gauge so can't give a precise figure.
Just shy of 2mm in FC at our place this morning. Double what I expected.
Decent area of showers coming up on the west coast of Tasmania ATM which should be with us overnight. Should see a few mms for areas east of Melbourne.
System for Sunday looking ok. Still fear a downgrade But currently looks like quite a decent thundery event.
As DJ said outer eastern and The Dandenongs did well overnight but here in Cranbourne
we missed out with just 2.2mm's in the gauge overnight.
Have only received 11mm's in the last 20 days at my place.
Hope that system on Sunday delivers,
Better late than never
Picked up 6mm Thursday night
Happy with that
It's been very dry in our neck of the woods for 6 months now
When I get a moment I will totally It all up