I know its a hot topic, but EC clearly on % is the best. GFS takes the best drugs. Laps is mortally wounded. JMA and Uk are very good. Nogaps has its moments. GASP is shocking, yet once a year provides a stunning upset and takes the cake, TWC Mesocast, actually no this a computer model discussion, it belongs in the bin, Access i have no idea about only David can answer that.
LMAO! Nice one!! I think that should be the mantra attached to most of the forecasting threads!!
I agree Andrew 100% with what you have said. It is a guide. Out here there have been signs for a while, natural ones, that I look too. Rain trees have been going beserk, ants building mounds, black cockatoos sqwaking etc. But also the night before a system, I love to get a picture of the sky and see what it is saying. Just like with a sunrise too. This morning I could tell things were not as unstable as I liked, flat As and Acu. But I revised in my mind the 30mm I thought we would get to 15-20mm. Just off an observation with the eye and this was before consulting the computer models.
I think the EC vs the world of models is sometimes valid, but again this is a natural science and even EC stuffs up. I mean how can it go from 60mm here last night to 0mm tonight for the next system??