Slow moving low with rain and storms: April 1-5

[hillybilly]

Thread for the incoming system. Slow moving trough which develops into a deep low which passes over or near Tasmania. Showers and storms building on Monday becoming widespread and heavy. Will then slowly spread south.

Expect close to a months worth of rain in central Victoria and northern Tasmania. A nice dry spell break. Western and eastern corners of Victoria and southern Tasmania are a bit toss of a coin.

Expedient Melbourne city to score at least 40mm. Hobart, maybe 10mm at as guess, but could be anywhere between 5 and 45mm. Tis so dry so hopefully no one missed out.

[QldTwister]

Yeah big soak coming for many next Monday/Tues and will mark the start of the change of season central Vic will do best.
Sad summer over why go so fast every year.

Its dry out there but central Vic and most on this fourm will see 20-40mm Monday and Tuesday so dont worry far west will miss out though but most Melbourne will see 30 to 50mm or more lots rain to come it gonna be wet.

Severe thunderstorms good chance in Mallee Wimmera on Monday arvo too so watch for that

Enjoy last few warm sunny days
Happy easter

[Onetahuti]

BOM could be said to going all out for rain, Monday 10 - 40mm / Tuesday 25 - 60mm for here

[Didjman]

By the BoMs own wording that's 75% chance of the first figure and 25% chance of the 2nd figure

[Sean]

Classic autumn break brewing?

[hillybilly]

Classic autumn break brewing?

Timings about right. Isn’t very widespread though - basically a Victorian and Tasmanian event, but not gonna complain if we all do well.

Progs are holding or building totals. Most of TAS and VIC now showing 20-50mm. Far southwest of TAS and far west and east of VIC might miss out a bit, but they might also do well. Tight gradients as the low develops and then very slowly drifts southeast,

Couple of things which have changed. The system could bomb just east of TAS. The low has been dropping to around 990hPa on some runs just off the TAS coast. With the stronger low the cold air wrapping in is a lot chillier with snow levels for Wednesday dropping well below 1000m in TAS and probably near the peaks for Victoria. The cold air and precip don’t line up too well, but should at least see some flurries.

[Gordon]

From my post on Good Friday: 'Still a bit 'forecast shy' after the disappointments of the last two months, but if we don't get the autumn break Easter Monday/ Tuesday, it will be the biggest bust I can recall.'

Liking the latest SWW (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml). Text includes: "HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for the South West and western parts of the Central district with thunderstorms and areas of rain during Monday afternoon, shifting into eastern parts of the Central district overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 30 to 50 mm are likely, with isolated falls of 70 mm possible."

[Macedonian]

Hope that rain comes tomorrow and we can put this horrible hot dry summer in the bin where it belongs. Bring on the cold weather!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Lovely day
Happy Easter all !

[QldTwister]

Yep as said few days ago its gonna pour 30 to 50mm for many in Central Vic and Melbourne with a few 60 to 80mm for some folk its gonna rain and rain and rain for hours big soak for central Vic this will end the flash drought for many with 1-2 months worth of rain in about 36 hours.

Awesome few days but smoke and Slys kept lid on temps here but inland nice and warm.
Last day tomorrow before rain and storms move in and sure everyone will enjoy but yes far east and far west miss out

enjoy soak and few rumbles tomorrow

[hillybilly]

Progs not changing much, a bit better for most of TAS. Probably a bit more compact for Victoria with a harder west and east boundary.

It moves out of Victoria fairly quickly so totals will be a bit limited despite the heavy fall rates with storms. It loiters more over northern Tas where the biggest falls are likely.

Expecting generally 25-50mm central Victoria, 50mm+ for almost all of northern Tas and 20-40mm for southern Tas. Should be a really good autumn break for most of us.

Btw March data crunched and really shows what a horribly dry couple of months it’s been. Large areas lowest on record. Vegetation has been really hammered down here because we missed the wet December. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rain ... =03&day=31

[snowfall]

Nice to finally be on the cusp of something.

Everything's looking good for decent totals, with the main event later today and overnight. We've got a strong northerly here, which makes me a little less confident due to the potential for rain shadowing, but hopefully we'll still do OK. At this stage, anything that manages to soak into the ground will do.

Hope everyone gets a good amount of rain to help break this extreme dry spell.

[Adam38]

Hardly a breath of wind down the hill in Bacchus

[Macedonian]

6mm already in the first 12hours of April!
Double my March total!

[Gordon]

6mm already in the first 12hours of April!
Double my March total!

Nice Macedonian - hopefully the first mms of many for you!

Only a few spots here so far, but radar and progs are promising. The sky is looking very volatile.

Just had a quick check of our 28 years of records. We recorded just 1.5mm for March, which makes it not only our driest March, but also our driest month - previous 'record' was 2mm in Jan 2009. The only saving grace is that March is statistically our driest month anyway, so it 'feels' a lot better than, say, a dry October.

No doubt there will be many more 'driest March' records for places with a lot longer datasets - like Ballarat for instance, where I believe the 0.8mm total is second only to 0mm in 1923!

[QldTwister]

Yep amazing dry month or 2 but thats all over in the next 24 hours with 30-50mm for many of you and some in the 60 to 80mm range in the hills and E of Melb etc

Showers and storms blowing up will only increase in coming hours to be widespread mod to heavy rain tonight

blocked drains slippery roads minor flash flooding all likely

[StratoBendigo]

Officially the driest March in Bendigo. 0.0mm. Although we have had rainless months in the past, especially Feb and even May.

No rain today as yet. Some showers out West, but it hasn't really kicked off. Waiting.

[StratoBendigo]

Just had a couple of downpours. 8mm this far. Bendigo AWS is a rain repellent - nothing there yet.

[Adam38]

Thunderstorm here

[Australis(Shell3155)]

5.30pm. @Mansfield, dry. Nothing as of yet.

Had few very massive drops around 2.30pm Jamieson

See 22mm Grampians.